2 sides of the Agbaje-Ambode win-or-lose coin

Lagos state is no doubt a battleground for the April 11 governorship election, and like the presidential election, it is the first time that the ruling party is not sure of victory. As strong as the Bola Tinubu’s dynasty is, Jimi Agbaje is proving to be a worthy challenger.

Characteristic of Lagos, the state is unique. Unlike many other states, the parties seem to be on two sides of the same coin, what favours Jack fails Jill. Below are reasons why Jimi Agbaje, the flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Akinwunmi Ambode, the gubernatorial candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), would win or lose.

CONTINUITY VS CHANGING THE CHANGER

APC succeeded in amassing enough votes to make power change hands at the federal level, riding on the wings of its change mantra. They told Nigerians consistently that the nation could not continue the way it was. That mantra has returned like a boomerang in the hand of an unskilled handler to hurt its thrower. The PDP in Lagos is now serving the people the same mantra, requesting that the people change the way Lagos is being run like a “private property”. PDP is asking that the people change the changer.

BOLA TINUBU’S DYNASTY

There’s arguably no politician in Nigeria today who wields the influence of Bola Tinubu, the former governor of Lagos state and national leader of APC, who was recently referred to as deeply Machiavellian in APC’s victory at the federal level. Since the return of democracy in 1999. Tinubu has successfully decided the conclusion of governorship contests. For 2015, the strategist in Tinubu has “anointed” Ambode, and that in itself used to be enough reason to say we have the next governor. However, many Lagosians just want nothing better than denying Tinubu “a fifth term” via Ambode. This opposition could work against Tinubu’s anointed.

EXPERIENCE VS FRESHNESS

One of the talking points for the gubernatorial election in Lagos is experience. APC is projecting an Ambode with a 27-year experience in state financing, while PDP is presenting an Agbaje with little or no such experience in governance.

Babatunde Fahola, the governor of Lagos and the poster boy for good governance in 21st century Nigeria, was chief of staff to Bola Tinubu, and that counted for him as experience, which is said to have helped his administration. Ambode was a lot before he became accountant-general of the state at a challenging time in its history.

On the other hand, Agbaje cannot boast of any sort of experience in governance in Lagos. He has been trying his best to downplay experience, noting Abraham Lincoln, Nelson Mandela, Obafemi Awolowo and Lateef Jakande as men who did not have government experience but excelled in governance. Those who want experience would give it to Ambode.

THE RILWAN AKIOLU CONTROVERSY

Less than seven days to the gubernatorial election, Rilwan Akiolu, the Oba of Lagos erred. Following Igbo victories in some part of Lagos, the king summoned some members of that ethnic group to his palace where he threatened that a vote against Ambode would be rewarded with death in the Lagoon. This was a big blow on the progress Ambode had recorded till then. Ndigbo in Lagos were quick to dance to the tunes of “JK is OK” as the APC sought redemption.

The outburst would have been expected to last until Election Day – yes it would, but not as potently as it was a day or two after it made the headlines. APC apologised, met Ndigbo and the song seems to have changed with the powers that be saying the monarch has been forgiven and Ndigbo would vote Ambode.

Agbaje made good use of the error, eventually urging Ndigbo to “confront” Akiolu with their votes. Akiolu’s words would sway a few thousand votes Agbaje’s way, but APC has done a good job in reducing the numbers.

THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR MANIFESTO

Akinwunmi Ambode has had his resume flying over social media for days now – we must agree that the resume is quite impressive. Jimi Agbaje prefers to ride on the wings of his person as a charismatic leader with brilliant public speaking acumen. Both have these working just fine for them. Agbaje takes it a step further to say he has no godfather, while Ambode is proud to be a student in Tinubu’s political school. However, some argue that Bode George, the national vice chairman (south west) of the PDP and Adeseye Ogunlewe, onetime senator of the federal republic, stand in as godfathers for Agbaje. As for the strength of their character, Agbaje and Ambode are good to go.

With respect to the manifesto, the APC continuity blueprint suits some Lagosians, while the PDP’s manifesto to ease tax burdens, cancel toll payment and building an ocean economy may just be the solution for many others.

THE VERDICT

A victory for Ambode would, for the first time in the history of Lagos, present the same party at both federal and state levels. This gives APC an edge over PDP in Lagos.

But history stands in favour of the PDP. There has never been a time in Lagos when the state and federal government were headed by the same party – from Lateef Jakande, the first civilian governor of Lagos state to the incumbent, Babatunde Fashola, Lagos has always been in the opposition.

With the foregoing, the gubernatorial election in Lagos state is currently too close to call. We can only keep our fingers crossed and hope the better man wins.