2023: Another poll places Obi first in presidential race — ahead of Tinubu, Atiku

We2Geda Foundation, a public advocacy group, says results of its recent poll shows Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), is likely to win the 2023 presidential election.

In a statement on Tuesday, the group said an opinion poll conducted on registered voters, indicates Obi leading other candidates by 51 per cent.

The group said Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, polled 25 per cent, while Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) polled 19 per cent.

According to the group, the poll was conducted to deepen the conversation about the 2023 election and to help political analysts address critical issues such as candidate preferences and key socioeconomic dynamics at play in the upcoming elections.

The group said it randomly surveyed a total of 15,438 registered voters in 36 states and the FCT through fully randomised direct phone calls in local languages to achieve real representation of registered voters across Nigeria.

“Respondents came from across local governments and were stratified proportionally by key demographics, e.g. rural versus urban, gender, and age. The proportion of Nigerians polled from each state was equal to the state’s contribution to the national voters’ register, as published by INEC,” the group said.

“For instance, as Abia contributes 2.3 per cent of the national voters’ register, Abia also made up 2.3 per cent of respondents in the randomised poll. The same process applied in every state, and polls within each state were 100 per cent randomised.

“Respondents were asked structured questions to assess their opinion and preparation for the 2023 general election. Questions include: are you planning to vote? Have you picked up your PVC? What do you think are the top three issues/challenges you face in Nigeria? How important are the 2023 elections to you? Who and which party will you vote for in 2023?

“In addition, the survey uncovered the top issues deciding voters’ choices in the upcoming election, including the need to tackle insecurity (42 per cent), corruption (18 per cent), jobs (9 per cent) and education (8 per cent) likely related to the ASUU strike. Nigerians aged between 26 and 40 years of age, and those between 41 and 50, constituted the highest number of respondents, with the latter higher by a slim margin.

“The result of the WE2Geda poll showed a clear lead for the Labour Party (LP) presidential flag-bearer, Peter Obi, with 51 per cent of respondents suggesting voting for him as their preferred candidate if the presidential election were held today. 25 per cent suggested voting for Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), while Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) ranked third in the voter preference poll with 19 per cent.

“Further analysis also shows that Peter Obi remained a consistent favourite in the four major geopolitical zones including north-central, south-south, south-west and south-east, while Atiku Abubakar was the poll leader in the north-east and north-west zones.”

The group noted that the poll results do not include respondents who were undecided or did not reveal their preferred candidate.

Earlier in the month, a poll, commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited, had placed the Labour Party candidate as winner of the 2023 presidential race.

Other political parties had kicked against the poll.