2023: Atiku Abubakar’s 10 insurmountable odds

1. After the 2-term presidency of General Muhammadu Buhari, the general expectation is that power will return to the South in 2023. The ruling All Progressives Congress (#APC) has confirmed its zoning of the presidency to the South. The People’s Democratic Party – PDP cannot behave like an ostrich and think that is a problem for APC to resolve and not theirs. Any party that fields a northern candidate has already known the result before the election is conducted. Southern governors have also unanimously announced that the next President MUST come from the zone.

2. President #Buhari strongly believes that Atiku could not justify the source of his stupendous wealth. Those who are familiar with the President’s thought process hinted that he would work extra hard to ensure that the former VP will not occupy Aso Rock again. Beyond any security report at Buhari’s disposal, #Atiku and one of his wives, Jennifer, were indicted in an international bribery scandal along with William Jefferson.

3. Age factor. At 77 by 2023, many Nigerians perceive Atiku to be too old to face the rigours of governing a complex country like Nigeria.

4. Credibility gaps. Many political pundits and the generality of Nigerians felt the #PDP could have mounted a stronger challenge to the APC in 2019 if it had fielded a candidate without the type of Atiku’s baggage. Though Nigerians were by then frustrated by with leadership style of Buhari, when they realised the other option was Atiku, they chose to endure Buhari’s handicaps for four more years.

5. Abandonment. After the 2019 elections, Atiku packed his bags and left Nigeria and Nigerians to their fate amidst growing frustrations with economic meltdowns, insecurity and collapsing infrastructures. Many expected him to have worked closely with PDP leaders and governors to make states governed by the main opposition party shinning examples of what a central PDP government under his leadership would do for #Nigeria. He issued occasional press releases from his Dubai base and reportedly said he went to school to learn how to rule the country better. He enjoyed his life and privacy while Rome burnt.

6. Polygamy. Though by their faith, #Muslims are allowed to marry more than one wife, reports said polygamy is becoming unfashionable in the world and “less than 1% of the men in any Muslim country are polygamous”. The VP has four wives officially. Those who harbour serious concerns that his marital status may distract his Presidency from critical official matters will rather look elsewhere for a candidate that can dedicate more time to state duties.

7. Objections by the international community. While the decision about who will rule a country is the primary responsibility of the people of the country, behind the scene, the international community wields a big influence. There are indications that some powerful nations are not comfortable with the financial trajectory of Atiku. They believe Nigerians deserve a President who will be firm against #corruption.

8. Mounting opposition within PDP. Even within his own party, Atiku is coming under increasing scrutiny. A group known as PDP Action 2023 has just released a statement where it urged him to drop his ambition to contest for the Presidency in 2023. It listed various reasons why Atiku is not fit-to-rule. It could be symptomatic of how low Atiku’s acceptability has sunken.

9. Weakened political structure. The best chance for Atiku to become Nigerian President was in 2003 when he had the most formidable political structure in Nigeria. Even former President Olusegun Obasanjo reportedly bowed before Atiku to get his second term ticket. Like the saying goes, “Never point a gun unless you intend to shoot. Atiku drew his political gun on Obasanjo but returned it to its holster without firing a shot. It turned out to be the biggest error of his political life. Once he secured his victory at the polls, Obasanjo went after him with a venom and painted Atiku locally and internationally as one of the most corrupt politicians in human history. The epithet stuck like an adhesive. Not even Obasanjo’s contrived self-reversal in 2019 could undo the mortal damage.

10. Sincerity. While Atiku is intelligent and deep, there are question marks over his sincerity. The question on many lips is what is the assurance that Atiku will follow through with any plan of action? Restructuring was one of the biggest items on Atiku’s agenda in 2019. People were not sure then that he would fulfil the promise. Now, the doubt has turned into a gulf. APC promised restructuring in 2015 but had no qualms betraying the trust. In spite of the best efforts of some of its leaders like Nasir El-Rufai who urged the party to honour its promise to the country, the more dominant group led by Buhari was adamant. At best, Nigerians would have a good laugh at Atiku whenever he mentions restructuring and true federalism. An asset has become a rude joke.

CLOSURE
An already fractured PDP will exhibit crass tomfoolery if it fields Atiku Abubakar as its presidential candidate in 2023. The choice is its to make. It can either give APC an easy ride to retain power or excite a dispirited nation with a strong and credible alternative. A simple, efficient and detailed pan-Nigeria research can help the PDP to ascertain its best candidate.