2027: Political illiteracy, regional preferences and an unprepared opposition

BY KUNLE LAWAL

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general election, the reality of our democracy once again reveals its deep flaws. While we celebrate over two decades of uninterrupted democratic rule, we must ask: How much progress have we truly made? The unfortunate answer is that while our elections have become more sophisticated in their execution, the electorate remains largely politically illiterate, governance continues to be dictated by regional preferences, and the opposition has once again proven itself woefully unprepared to challenge the status quo.

We cannot build a great nation if voters do not understand the power they wield if elections are dictated by ethnicity rather than ideology, and if those who seek to challenge the ruling party remain fragmented and unserious. The 2027 election cycle is already exposing these cracks in our democracy, and if we do not correct course, we may find ourselves stuck in yet another four years of stagnation.

Political illiteracy: A nation that votes blindly

In my years of working to deepen political literacy in Nigeria, one thing has remained painfully consistent: many voters still do not understand how governance works. They do not know the difference between the legislature and the executive, between a governor and a senator, or between policy and campaign rhetoric.

This lack of understanding means that the same mistakes are repeated every election cycle. People vote for legislators expecting them to build roads and hospitals, while governors and presidents evade scrutiny because the electorate does not know how to hold them accountable. In the end, governance suffers because voters do not demand performance where it truly matters.

The ruling class has benefited from this ignorance for years, and they have no incentive to change it. Instead of engaging voters on issues, they continue to run personality-driven campaigns, offering handouts, making vague promises, and exploiting the desperation of the masses.

In a truly informed democracy, debates would be policy-driven, and leaders would be elected based on their competence, not their charisma or tribal identity. But here in Nigeria, the reverse is the case. The most dangerous aspect of this political illiteracy is that it allows failed leaders to return to office with no consequences—because the people do not fully grasp the weight of their vote.

Until we fix this, our democracy will remain a cycle of frustration, with citizens growing increasingly disillusioned while politicians recycle the same tactics to stay in power.

The terror of regional preferences: A nation still divided by tribe

Nigeria’s elections are not fought over ideas, policies, or vision. Instead, they are contests of ethnic supremacy, with every region fighting to secure power rather than advance the country.

As we head into 2027, the same dangerous rhetoric is emerging. Political calculations are not based on who has the best governance plan but on which region is next in line for the presidency. This obsession with zoning rather than competence has reduced our democracy to an ethnic bidding war, where merit is discarded in favour of sectional interests.

This is why our political parties struggle to create national identities—because they do not see themselves as ideological institutions but as vehicles for regional aspirations. The consequence is that the moment a candidate emerges, their first task is to prove their loyalty to their tribe and religion rather than to the nation.

It is a dangerous game. Nations that prioritize regional interests over national unity often end up divided, unstable, and unable to progress. Nigeria has spent decades on this path, and if we do not change course, we will continue to elect leaders who serve only their ethnic base rather than the entire country.

A truly national leader must be one who is blind to tribe, one whose policies are designed to benefit all Nigerians, and one who is chosen based on competence, not regional entitlement. Until we abandon this ethnic approach to politics, we will never see the true potential of democracy in Nigeria.

An opposition that is unprepared and uninspiring

Perhaps the greatest failure of the 2027 election cycle is the complete lack of preparedness by the opposition. While the ruling party consolidates power, the opposition remains divided, visionless, and ineffective.

The role of an opposition is to provide an alternative vision, to challenge governance failures, and to present the people with a credible choice. But instead, opposition parties in Nigeria have become centres of personal ambition, filled with leaders who are more interested in their own relevance than in building a coalition to win power.

As we approach 2027, there is no clear opposition strategy, no unifying ideology, and no strong candidate capable of rallying national support. Instead, we see infighting, defections, and short-term political manoeuvring, all of which make it easier for the ruling party to retain power without serious competition.

A prepared opposition should be one that:
1. Presents a clear governance blueprint—not just empty slogans and reactionary statements.
2. Unites behind a single, credible candidate—rather than splintering into factions.
3. Engage voters early with a strong grassroots strategy—instead of waiting until election season.
4. Holds the ruling party accountable daily—not just during campaign periods.

Right now, we see none of these. Instead, the opposition is sleepwalking into 2027, hoping that frustration with the ruling party will be enough to hand them victory. But elections do not work that way. If they do not step up now, they will once again watch power slip through their fingers.

The 2027 reality check: What must change?

If we do not address these three major issues—political illiteracy, ethnic-driven politics, and opposition disarray—then 2027 will simply be another election without progress.

We must:
• Prioritise political education: Every Nigerian must understand their rights, responsibilities, and the true roles of elected officials.
• End the politics of regional entitlement: Leadership must be about competence and capacity, not tribal loyalty.
• Demand serious opposition: Nigerians must force opposition parties to unite, organize, and present a real alternative—not just recycled politicians looking for new platforms.

Democracy is not just about casting votes; it is about making informed choices. If we continue to allow ignorance and ethnicity to drive our elections, then we must be ready to endure another four years of disappointment.

The challenge is before us. 2027 can be a turning point—but only if we are willing to change the way we engage with politics. The question is: Will we rise to the occasion, or will we repeat the cycle?

For the love of country,

Kunle Lawal is the executive director of the Electoral College Nigeria