3 take-aways from Adamawa impeachment saga

And so the Adamawa governorship bye-election scheduled for Saturday, October 11, will no longer hold. A federal high court in Abuja ruled on Wednesday that constitutionally, Murtala Nyako was the substantive governor when his deputy, Bala Ngilari, purportedly resigned. He should have sent his “resignation letter” to Nyako and not to the house of assembly.

Nyako had openly said Ngilari should continue in office, even though it would mean the PDP regaining control of the state since Ngilari did not defect to the APC with him. Ahmadu Fintiri, the speaker then, promptly capitalised on the exits of Nyako and Ngilari to become acting governor, and even went a step further by picking the PDP ticket to participate in the bye-election to fill a vacancy that now no longer exists.

Here are the three things we have learnt from this drama.

1. Greed is not that good

The impeachment plot against Nyako had, from day one, been a selfish move by Fintiri to get power at all costs. He spared no effort in achieving his aim. The probe panel sat for barely two days before returning a guilty verdict on Nyako. However, Ngilari was not indicted, perhaps for political reasons or for want of evidence. To get Ngilari out of the way, he was coerced into resigning his appointment, but not to the appropriate authority.

The feeling in Fintiri’s camp then was that if Ngilari wrote directly to Nyako, he may reject it. That means Ngilari must be sworn in, thereby checkmating Fintiri’s ambition. An unconstitutional method was devised, leading to Ngilari’s “resignation”. Fintiri, meanwhile, did everything possible to prove that he was greedy for power. As soon as he became acting governor, he started “buying” all the stakeholders in the state to his side.

When he was initially told not to run for governorship, he was so angry he left the venue of the meeting and walked past his car. He was so desperate that he even agreed to do only seven months in office and not re-contest next year. Now that he has to vacate office as acting governor, he may start another impeachment process against Ngilari. He can stall the appointment of a substantive deputy who may take over if Ngilari is impeached.

2. Face-saver for Atiku and APC

Saturday’s election was going to be the final opportunity for the PDP and APC to test their strengths before the general election next year. From the realities on the ground, though, the PDP was all set to win the election. APC had been significantly weakened in the state since the exit of Nyako. Those who moved with him to APC had returned to PDP. The unthinkable even happened: Nuhu Ribadu, who had criticised PDP all his political career, left APC and joined the ruling party. Atiku was the big fish left in the APC.

But even Atiku’s control of the party has been a subject of intense debate, as his preferred candidate for the APC ticket for the bye-election was defeated by a senator, Jibrilla Bindow, in the primary. Although he issued a statement saying he accepted the result in good faith as a democrat, many started asking questions about Atiku’s standing in his home state, and his aspiration to rule Nigeria. With the election off, there will be no opportunity for the parties to test their strengths. With APC winning the last election in Osun state, they will go into the 2015 polls with more confidence, after being rattled in Ekiti in June.

3. Boko Haram ‘test-run’ aborted

Two local governments, Madagali and Michika, are currently under the control of Boko Haram in Adamawa state. Maha, Mubi north and Mubi south are also considered to be flashpoints by security agencies. Altogether, there are over 300,000 registered voters in these areas. These figures can determine the winner. The Independent National Electoral Commissioner (INEC) had announced that it could not hold elections in Madagali and Michika because of the security situation, while the flashpoints were also a source of worry.

The bigger picture is that Yobe and Borno states ─ both controlled by APC ─ are also heavily affected by Boko Haram. If INEC fails to hold elections in some parts of Adamawa now, it may also decide to avoid many parts of Yobe and Borno. This may count to the advantage of PDP and cause questions to be asked about the credibility of the elections.

The decision of the high court to stop the Adamawa election has, for now, postponed what looked like a certain evil day.