60% of youths can determine Nigeria’s next set of leaders

BY IBRAHIM FARUK

Since Nigeria’s struggle for independence, young people have been at the front and centre of political participation. The struggle for Nigeria’s independence as well as the successive military interventions and democratic republics have been filled with instances of youth participation. However, the participation of young people has continued to rise and fall between 1960, when Nigeria gained independence till the Fourth Republic in 1999 when there was a return to democracy following years of military rule.

In May 2018, President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Age Reduction Act, popularly known as the #NotTooYoungToRun Act. Following this historic act, youth candidacy increased from 21 percent in the 2015 general election to 34.2 percent in the 2019 general election.

However, youth candidacy dropped from 34.2 percent in 2019 to 28.6 percent for the 2023 general election. Youth candidacy data analysis from 2015–2023 has swung forward (in 2019) and then backward (in 2023). This is because of the excessive cost of nomination forms, highly commercialised party primaries, the substitution of candidates, and the deregistration of political parties.

Across the 36 state houses of assembly, there were 68 members between the ages of 31 and 35 representing 6.08 percent of the members of the state houses of assembly. There were also 20 direct beneficiaries of the #NotTooYoungToRun Act in the state houses of assembly between the ages of 25–30. This was directly as a result of the age reduction legislation that was passed by the national assembly and assented to by the president on May 31, 2018.

Despite the youth demography being responsible for over 60 percent of the entire population, this does not translate into a democratic dividend in terms of youth candidacy and representation in elective offices. Similarly, voter turnout has been on a decline since 2003. Voter turnout was recorded at 69 percent in the 2003 general election; it dropped to 57 percent in 2007; further to 54 percent in 2011; 44 percent in 2015; and to an all-time low of 35 percent in 2019.

In the 2019 general election, out of a voting-age population of over 100 million, only 84 million Nigerians registered to vote, young Nigerians accounted for 51.1 percent (42 million) of registered voters for the elections.

However, this huge demography did not reflect in voter turnout as only about 12.1 million young voters – representing 28% of the young voters’ population – participated as voters in the 2019 presidential/national assembly elections and 12.6 million young voters – representing 29% – participated as voters in the 2019 gubernatorial/state assembly elections.

The 2022 general election in Kenya had the lowest voter turnout in 15 years. Only 65 percent of the 22.12 million registered voters turned up to cast their ballots. The decline in voter turnout was credited to a lack of voter education, low interest by the youth, reduced trust and confidence in the political system, poverty and youth unemployment. It is interesting to note that a 65 percent turnout in Kenya is considered ‘low’ while Nigeria has struggled to achieve similar voter turnout figures since 2003.

Democracy is about numbers and these numbers narrate the state of participation, spread across youth candidacy, youth representation and youth voter turnout in Nigerian elections. These indices further speak to the quality of inclusion and representation of various groups within a society.

The 2023 general election provide an opportunity to swing towards positive levels of youth representation and youth voter turnout. One of the innovative ways to increase youth voter turnout can be seen in Yiaga Africa’s #SixtyPercentOfUs Project which seeks to use traditional and non-traditional means to mobilise young voters to register, collect PVCs and vote using traditional and non-traditional tools of political mobilisation.

Across various states, citizens have been and are continuing to organise outreach drives, bus drives, and town hall meetings especially in states with low voter registration and permanent voter card collection rates (between June 2021 and July 2022), followed by current efforts to ensure citizens collect their PVCs as well as voter mobilisation efforts to turn out and vote on election day.

Achieving 60 percent voter turnout will reverse the trend of declining turnout in Nigeria. This is important because a truly democratic and representative political system ensures that all parts of society are included in decision-making processes. Inclusive political participation is not only a fundamental political and democratic right but also is crucial to building stable and peaceful societies and developing policies that respond to the specific needs of younger generations.

Ibrahim Faruk is a programme manager with Yiaga Africa’s governance and development programme and is a member of the leadership and strategy team of the Not Too Young To Run Movement. He can be reached via [email protected], and tweets @IbrhmFaruk