Abundant deposit of lithium and Nigeria’s international relations in the next 50 years

The global transition to clean energy has placed lithium—often called “white gold”—at the heart of the 21st-century economic and geopolitical landscape. As nations pivot towards “electric vehicles” (EVs), renewable energy storage, and advanced battery technology, lithium has become an indispensable resource. Nigeria, recently confirmed to possess significant lithium deposits, is poised to become a major player in the global supply chain. Over the next 50 years, this resource will significantly shape Nigeria’s international relations, influencing trade, diplomacy, and economic alliances. Let us examine the “how?”

1. Nigeria as a Key Supplier in the Global Energy Transition

Nigeria’s lithium reserves could propel it to the forefront of the global battery supply chain, particularly for EVs and energy storage solutions. With countries like China, the United States, and the European Union, aggressively pursuing clean energy goals, Nigeria’s lithium resources will make it a strategic partner in the global market to every serious-minded players in the industry across the world. With abundant deposit confirmed in places like Kwara, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Osun, Kogi, and Ekiti States, Nigerians should be pardoned for dreaming of a world in which Nigeria is always at the “high table” at major global economic, political (or whatever) summit, courtesy of its rich lithium endowment. As an icing on the cake, Nigeria is reputed to have been blessed with the highest grade of lithium known to scientists so far. The Geological Agency described the lithium found in Nigeria, as high grade because what’s been found has been, between 1%-13% oxide content. Normally, exploration begins at levels as low as 0.4%. Grade (in %) is a measure of concentration of the lithium in the minerals or rocks that contains it.

China’s Influence: Given China’s dominance in lithium refining and battery manufacturing, Nigeria may strengthen ties with Beijing through mining investments, infrastructure development, and trade agreements.

Western Interests: The U.S. and the EU, aiming to diversify their lithium supply chains away from Chinese control, may seek direct partnerships with Nigeria, fostering competition for access and investment.

These interactions will redefine Nigeria’s economic diplomacy, placing it at the center of energy security discussions among the comity of nations. In short, Nigeria will become that beautiful bride, being courted those industrialised nations whose economies have high demand for lithium battery.

2. A Shift from Oil-Dominant Relations to Lithium-Based Alliances:

For decades, Nigeria’s international relations were heavily shaped by crude oil exports. However, as global demand for oil declines due to the energy transition, lithium will emerge as a new economic mainstay. Countries that previously relied on Nigerian oil may now turn to its lithium supply instead. This will, no doubt, give Nigeria a leverage in any bilateral or even multilateral negotiation, which will secure a good deal for the people of the country.

New Trade Agreements: Nigeria may renegotiate trade terms with former oil partners like India, the U.S., and Europe, shifting from petroleum-based agreements to critical mineral trade deals. It would be to our utmost advantage to avoid all the pitfalls that characterised our negotiations in times past when oil was the currency.

Diversified Alliances: While OPEC has been central to Nigeria’s diplomatic strategy, the country might explore new forums such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and lithium-specific alliances. This shift could enhance Nigeria’s global bargaining power and reduce its over-reliance on oil-dependent economies, and make the Naira (the country’s currency) much stronger in value, against major currencies of the world (US Dollars, British Pound Sterling, the Euros, among others) than it is in an oil-dominated economy.

3. Nigeria’s Role in Africa’s Lithium Boom and Regional Integration

Africa is emerging as a key player in the global lithium market, with significant reserves in Zimbabwe, Namibia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and now Nigeria. This positions Nigeria as a potential leader in shaping Africa’s lithium industry. This will give Africa, and Nigeria in particular, a strong bargaining power, in international trade and economic agreements.

ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): Nigeria could drive regional cooperation by making itself a lithium refining and processing hub in West Africa subregion and even, the entire Africa, thus reducing raw mineral exports and boosting local value addition. That is, ensuring a significant Nigerian-presence on the value chain. This will position Nigeria in the driver’s seat of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). AfCFTA, you would recall is the largest single trading bloc in the world, after the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It is reported to be worth around $3.4 trillion in terms of the GDP.

Pan-African Energy Strategy: Nigeria’s lithium could be central to Africa’s broader energy transition, fostering stronger global South cooperation with other lithium-rich nations. This would strengthen Nigeria’s leadership in regional energy policies and enhance economic integration. AfCFTA is an already-made platform for that to happen.

4. The Challenge of Resource Nationalism and Foreign Investment Balancing

Nigeria will have to navigate the fine line between attracting foreign investment and maintaining control over its lithium resources. Many resource-rich nations have struggled with exploitation by multinational corporations, leading to weak local industrialization. This happened in the Nigerian Oil sector, but it must not be allowed to repeat itself in this sector in the country’s drive toward cleaner (green) energy.

Strategic Policies: Nigeria could implement policies similar to Chile and Bolivia, where lithium extraction is closely regulated to ensure national benefits. That is one critical oversight that characterised our partnership with the International Oil Companies (IOCs). And, that greatly affected how much Nigeria benefits from our oil as a national wealth. Nigeria must avoid scoring similar strategic “own goal”, this time around.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Tempting and desirable, as it (FDI) may sound, the country must balance welcoming international investors with ensuring technology transfer, job creation and security, and sustainable mining practices. Proper governance of its lithium sector will determine whether Nigeria becomes a mere supplier of raw materials, or a value-added producer in the global market.

5. Environmental and Social Considerations in Global Partnerships

The lithium boom comes with environmental and social challenges, including water-intensive mining, ecological degradation, and local community displacement. As international buyers are made to prioritize ethical sourcing, Nigeria’s global standing will depend on sustainable mining practices. Nigeria should have learned from the environmental issues arising from oil exploration and mining in the Niger Delta, Ogoni land, for instance.

Green Mining Standards: Collaborations with Western partners may push Nigeria towards environmentally responsible extraction, securing its place in sustainable supply chains.

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): Adopting best practices in community development (and relationship) will prevent local unrest and ensure long-term investment confidence. Sustainability will be a major factor in Nigeria’s global lithium trade relationships.

Conclusion: Nigeria’s Lithium Era and the Future of Its Global Influence:

Nigeria’s abundant lithium deposits will fundamentally reshape its international relations over the next 50 years. The country will transition from an oil-dependent economy to a major supplier of critical minerals, influencing new global alliances and trade dynamics. Strategic policy decisions will, therefore, determine whether Nigeria becomes a powerhouse in the lithium value chain or merely a raw material exporter like we’ve been doing in the oil and gas sector that later turned us into net importers of refined Petroleum products until the game-changing emergence of Dangote Refinery.

Therefore, by leveraging its lithium wealth wisely, fostering responsible partnerships, and prioritizing value addition, Nigeria can secure a strong position in the global energy transition, ensuring long-term economic growth and diplomatic influence. The time to kick-start that lofty ambition is now that the country is bidding to host the 32nd edition of the United Nations Conference of Parties (COP32) to be held in 2027. We can, and should use that opportunity to begin our marketing drive towards extracting the best possible deal from prospective partners in the exploration of our lithium for the production, and storage of cleaner energy, which is the future, as the world drive towards environmental reclamation, from the adverse effect of global warming.

Abubakar writes from Ilorin, Kwara state. He can be reached via 08051388285 or [email protected]