Adeleke’s Hail Mary and Oyetola’s political sin

Make no mistake about it, what happened in Osun last weekend is quite profound. It simply reinforces and again confirms what we have all known, that God still rules over the affairs of men. The series of events that culminated in the victory of the ‘Dancing Senator’ turned ‘Dancing Governor’, Ademola Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke, undeniably have what Christians would describe as the theological hand of God.

As early as June, I could predict the pattern of victory and was therefore not surprised when it turned out as predicted, but the truth is that two months before then, I am sure that not even Adeleke, who is famous for his love for Yoruba Christian hymnals (YHB), could have accurately called a win for himself. The reason is simple, some of the significant events that contributed to his victory were clearly bigger than him, and I will never be surprised if the man goes ahead to describe himself as a ‘wonder governor’.

Sorry, I digressed, but my point is that events beyond Adeleke’s immediate control aligned to make his victory possible, so I join the ‘dancing governor’ in singing the timeless Christian hymnal, “Now thank we all our God” — which is sang in Yoruba as “A f’ Ope fun Olorun”.

Now let’s go to the more serious stuff. In my analysis, a combination of Oyetola’s fall out with his predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola, and his TOPs (The Osun Progressives), — which I consider his greatest political sin — Adeleke’s popularity, his Hail Mary (picking his deputy governorship candidate Kola Adewusi from Ile-Ife) are some of the factors that have contributed in no small measure to Oyetola’s failed re-election bid. And like someone reminded me, for every major event or disaster, at least a combination of five mini events or disasters combine to form such catastrophe.

I have said repeatedly to those who care to listen that Osun is a spectacularly difficult state to govern, it requires an extra level of genius to do beyond average. In fact, some people have described what you have in Osun as a fiscal cliff in reference to its apparent unhealthy financial profile. This is why I think that the outcome in the Oyetola–Adeleke rematch is not entirely about performance, because matter of factly, Oyetola did not do too badly with the limited resources available, and this I have said to manage the expectation of those that may expect an overnight turn-around from Adeleke. So, to put it more aptly, one of the reasons Oyetola failed to secure re-election is more about his obvious lack of charisma, vitality, and inspirational leadership, compared to what the people experienced under Aregbesola, even when they were paid modulated salary, Aregbesola won his re-election.

On Adeleke’s popularity, the truth is that elections are sometimes down to preferences, in most cases such preferences can be mundane and may not be based on any rationality or logic. This is why at least three factors contributed to Adeleke’s popularity among the Osun people. The first is the antecedent of his family; the Adelekes need no introduction in the state, perhaps the most prominent, some may argue but I am sure you get my point. The second factor that contributed to his popularity is his flamboyant dancing style, which some people may have previously derided, but for the Osun people, that was exactly his selling point. And lastly, his political name “Imole” which means light in English, is a powerful connotation in Christian theology, which resonated with the people. Like I said, preferences are oftentimes mundane, but who can fault the knowledge and intelligence of the collective?

Oyetola’s inability to manage his predecessor and his unceasing conflict with The Osun Progressives, a group loyal to Aregbesola, is perhaps his biggest political sin, which I reckon has now cost him a re-election. For example, Osogbo and Olorunda local government areas are both APC strongholds, which are two of the biggest voting blocs in Osun, however, for the first time in a long time, PDP won the two local governments with a considerable margin. The answer is simple, Aregbesola and his loyalists control the majority of the political structure in that area.

Now recall that in the build-up to the election, some of Aregbesola’s associates, most notably Kolapo Alimi, had either defected to PDP or stayed back in APC and in rebellion chose to allow PDP a field day. It was the classic situation of a house already divided against itself and was therefore not surprising that the APC behemoth in Osogbo and Olorunda collapsed spectacularly.

In addition to a host of other factors, Adeleke’s decision to pick his deputy governorship candidate Kola Adewusi, from Ile-Ife, a high voting population area, to decimate the time-tested dominance of the national secretary of the APC, Iyiola Omisore, in the area, turned out to be a deft and sound political choice. Although, the decision did not prevent Adeleke’s trouncing in the area, at least the decision helped to manage the margin of defeat, which was enough to hand him an eventual triumph.

A bigger lesson is also that of consistency and party structure, which were the minimum for victory anyway. Despite losing the last election under controversial circumstances, Adeleke remained consistent, including his now famous intervention during the COVID crisis, while also leaning on a strong platform like the PDP. The man was never deluded, he knew the importance of running on a strong platform since he was running to win and not make a point. This is a lesson for politicians and aspiring politicians alike who would either be standing for election or preparing for one next year.

I congratulate the winner of the election for a hard-fought and tortuous political journey and encourage him to remain magnanimous in victory. It is also my expectation that Oyetola would show grace in defeat by accepting the outcome pronto, in the interest of the Osun people. The people of Osun have spoken loudly, Imole de!