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Almost 42m Americans cast early votes ahead of November 5 poll

Voting in the USA. Photo credit: Chatham House

Over 41 million voters in the United States have cast their ballots ahead of the presidential election on November 5.

Early votes are cast in-person or by mail.

Although these votes are not always a perfect indicator of which way the pendulum would swing, the turnout is crucial for the campaigns of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Historically, Democrats have cast more votes by mail than Republicans, who are more likely to vote on election day.

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Although the process varies, many jurisdictions count in-person votes before tallying mail-in ballots.

That can create a “blue shift” or “red mirage”, in which early results in swing states appear to initially show the Republican candidate leading, only to shift to the Democratic candidate as the mail-in votes are counted.

In 2020, more than 2.7 million voters cast early votes in the key state of Georgia, which later flipped blue and helped President Joe Biden beat Trump.

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The Republican candidate said the mail-in voting system was fraudulent and continues to claim his mandate was stolen.

Harris’ campaign has pushed for Democratic voters to utilise early voting in their states.

Trump has remained critical, but the Republican Party has opined differently, urging supporters to flip the script. This has led to a higher percentage of early Republican voters compared to 2020.

According to the University of Florida’s election lab’s early voter tracker, Democrats have cast 39.9 percent of the early votes while Republicans account for 36.3 percent.

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