ANALYSIS: Can NNPP make history to win Kano guber election?

There are various factors that come into play in winning an election — the popularity of the party and its candidate, the party’s campaign strategy, and the ability of the party to mobilise its supporters. These are the components that the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) seems to be banking on to defeat the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) in the Kano gubernatorial election.

Predicting election outcomes can be tricky and often involves elements that are difficult to anticipate; for example, the expectation of voter turnout for some candidates. However, supporters of Rabiu Kwankwaso, the NNPP presidential candidate, do not think this is a problem.

In the span of Kwankwaso’s political career, he has been with five parties, most recently the NNPP. The NNPP had no national visibility until the former Kano governor joined the party last year. He moved his Kwankwasiyya movement, which translates from Hausa as the “Red cap revolution”, into the party.

Even when he switched from Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC, the Kwankwasiyya structure moved along. It is the core loyalty of the movement that saw Kwankwaso sweep Kano during the presidential election with almost one million votes to defeat APC’s Bola Tinubu and PDP’s Atiku Abubakar who came a distant third.

Abba Kabir-Yusuf, the NNPP governorship candidate in the state, is hoping that his principal’s magic would work for him too on Saturday.

An Anap Foundation poll placed Kabir-Yusuf as the most favoured to win the gubernatorial election.

The poll showed a close race between Kabir-Yusuf and the APC’s Nasiru Gawuna. There is an 18-point gap between the pair and other candidates.

“The results showed a significant lead for Abba Kabir-Yusuf with 29 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him if the governorship election were to be conducted today; and 21 per cent proposing to vote for Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna of the APC who fell in second place,” the foundation said.

“Mohammed Sadiq Wali of the PDP was a distant third with only 3 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him.”

In a state that has been ruled by governors mainly from the APC and PDP, will the emergence of the NNPP upset Kano’s political clime?

DEFECTION OF OPPOSITION AND MAJORITY OF STATE N/ASSEMBLY MEMBERS TO NNPP

Asides from the dependence on party and candidate popularity as well as campaign strategies, additional factors such as political alliances and internal party politics could also play a role in stirring victory for the NNPP candidate at the polls.

Last month, a faction of the PDP in Kano dumped the party for the NNPP. 

Shehu Sagagi, the state PDP factional leader, said he defected alongside 36 state executive members, over 700 local government executives, 8,000 ward executives, 44 national delegates and 1,452 ward delegates.

According to Sagagi, “politics is a game of numbers; we are optimistic that the NNPP presidential candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso will take us to victory at both national and state level”.

The NNPP effect was also seen in the February 25 election. Clearing 17 out of the 24 house of representatives seats in the state and two out of the three senate seats, the party has erected a stronghold in the state.

‘PEOPLE WANT SOMETHING NEW’

Residents of Kano, the commercial hub of the north, are most interested in two development sectors — trade and education. Today, the Kano University of Science and Technology and the North West University stand as reminders of Kwankwaso’s legacies in the state.

Yusuf Umar, a resident of the state, said he believes Kwankwaso’s ideologies will be re-enacted and reformed through Kabir-Yusuf and that is why he will vote the NNPP gubernatorial candidate.

“You don’t need a soothsayer to tell you that the APC and PDP are losing popularity in Kano. People are tired and they want something new,” he told TheCable.

“Ganduje have made some improvements in the state but not as much as Kwankwaso did. People will want to vote for who will help businesses in the state but recently trading in Kano has been something else. The naira policy under this same APC has even made matters worse. NNPP may just be the game-changer.”

But one thing the presidential election has established is that opinion polls and “popular” perceptions are empty if they are not backed by the right action — high voter turnout.

As voters troop to their polling unit today, will the NNPP win the battle or will the APC retain its position as the ruling party in Kano?