ANAP polls put Buhari in the lead but final outcome ‘too close to call’

A presidential pre-election opinion poll commissioned by ANAP Foundation, a non-profit organisation, has put President Muhammadu Buhari in the lead .

The poll, conducted on ANAP’s behalf by NOI Polls Limited, projected a two-horse race between Buhari, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

“From the results, when asked who respondents will be voting for in the coming 2019 Presidential elections, the figures put President Muhammadu Buhari in the lead (with roughly one-third of the votes) over Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (with approximately one-quarter of the votes),” Atedo Peterside, ANAP’s founder, said in a statement on Thursday.

“Interestingly, both candidates enjoy decent support across gender and age groups. Atiku also has a better spread across all six geopolitical zones.”

REASONS FOR BACKING BUHARI, ATIKU

In the poll, 28% of respondents are backing Buhari for continuity, 13% for fight against corruption, another 13% for integrity, 12% for improving security, 8% for helping the poor, 6 % are those who simply see him as preferred candidate and 2% are supporting Buhari because they expect a better economy.

For Atiku, 39% wants him for change in governance, 20% for better economy , 11% for better governance,  8% simply as their preffered choice, 7% for past political records and 5% for restructuring.

UNDECIDED VOTES HIGHER IN THE SOUTH-EAST

The geographical split of the undecided, according to the poll, is 53% in the south-east which is the highest. For south-west, it is 49%. In the north-central, 35% and south-south-south, 45%.

Undecided votes in the north-east and north-west, however are 22% and 25% respectively.

FINAL OUTCOME TOO CLOSE TO CALL

According to ANAP, Buhari’s lead is sizable but not unassailable because of the largest concentration of undecided voters in the south-east where his candidacy is weak.

“Voter turnout can also make a big difference on the day, especially if there is considerable disparity in turnout figures across geopolitical zones. Buhari was always in the race as the front-runner. Atiku started from zero and has momentum on his side,” he said.

“Given the size of the undecided votes and its unique concentration in the 3 southern geopolitical zones and the north-central zone, ANAP Foundation has concluded that the final outcome is deemed to be too close to call.”

Those interviewed, ANAP said, are registered voters who had obtained their permanent voter cards (PVCs).

The foundation has been conducting polls on elections since 2011.

The presidential election is scheduled to hold on Saturday.