Is another air disaster coming?

There is a Lagos based pastor that gets most of his predictions right – at least this is what some of his high profile followers believe. To be clear, this guy is not just an ordinary pastor, he has politicians, celebrities and rich people as followers. His critics have argued that he just analyses the news and information he gets and puts out his analysis as prophesy. For example, one of his critics argued that he once predicted that there would be a Boko Haram attack sometime in 2012, and that was the period Nigerian experienced attacks every Sunday, and his prediction definitely came true. And of course, he got the day right – the attack happened on a Sunday. I will not be surprised if this pastor predicts another plane crash after reading about what has been going on in the aviation industry.

Before we go into the argument, let me give you an overview of the whole problem. British Airways (BA) and other airline companies claim that they have a backlog of 1.3 billion dollars they cannot repatriate home due to the CBN’s forex policies.  This has raised a lot of issues in the aviation industry. Airline companies have even threatened to cut jobs because the government’s forex policy is hurting them.

Some of us had not taken this seriously. We thought it was another strategy from multinationals to fleece the country of its depleting foreign reserve. So, when Louis Odion wrote a piece titled, ‘’ Dirty Fight for Nigeria’s Sky and Forex’’, we felt he was speaking our minds. But, things are taking another dimension. And it calls for urgent action.

A few days ago, Thisday published an article saying that the government’s forex policy might force airlines to cut corners. Or rather, tempt them to cut corners. Hear the Chairman Airline operators of Nigeria, Noggie Meggison, speak, “Airline operators are required to change their tyres on a weekly basis, pay for wear and tear on a monthly basis and fix old engines when the need arises, and this is often done outside the country and requires dollars to foot the bills.”

Noggie Meggison went on to explain himself by educating us that routine maintenance, which are mandatory, are becoming extremely difficult to carry out because forex was very hard to come by. Before we go on, let me tell you a thing or two about regular aircraft maintenance. We are not talking of a motor bike or a Keke here, we are talking about an aircraft, whose crash is always a national tragedy.

The need for regular maintenance of any equipment cannot be overemphasized. So, I would not want to treat readers like kids by talking a lot about the need for regular maintenance. Now, let’s get down to the nitty gritty of airline maintenance. Do you know that there is a maintenance given to aircraft called A- Check? This check is carried out after the aircraft has flown 500 – 800 flight hours. While the B- Check is usually carried out every 3 -6 months on the aircraft. The other checks are called the C and D Checks. The C and D Checks take longer durations before they are carried out. These routine checks are where the problems are.

Now, hear the danger. Some airline operators are suggesting that some of these routine checks be restructured. What does this mean? This is what the Guardian newspaper reported in one of its article:   “Some of the airline operators due to the challenging circumstances they have found themselves, are now calling on the regulatory agency, Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), to review the mandatory timeline for aircraft maintenance, to remedy the huge financial burden the 18-month exercise makes them to bear against their will.”

The newspaper went on to state that, ‘’Chairman of Air Peace, Allen Onyema is one of the operators, who are calling on NCAA to revise the mandatory 18 months timeline given operators to carry out C-Check on all aircraft flying in the country. C- Check is the major maintenance carried on aircraft every 18 months whether the plane was flown or not.’’ Though Chairman Onyema suggested a replacement check, I am worried.

It was at this point that a red flag went up in my brains. Though I am not an aviation expert, the call to extend the timelines for checks should make anyone worry. What I think I am hearing is analogous to saying that Europeans who change their car tyres every 6 months don’t know they are doing. After all, some people still buy these used tyres and use them for another two years. The point here is that the original manufacturers of aircraft, who set maintenance timelines, aren’t stupid.

Aircraft companies have been crying that Nigeria doesn’t have standard maintenance facilities. Thus, they need to take their planes abroad for maintenance. In the past, we could afford to give these companies dollars and our inability to own maintenance facilities didn’t have to come up in the news. But now, there are no forex, and airlines are struggling, thus, they might be tempted to cut corners.

BA has just downgraded its flight to Nigeria from a B747-400, with a capacity of 406 passengers, to B777- 200ER, with a capacity of 217 persons. Well, I am not an airline expert, but I have always observed that flying in big planes seems to be more stable that flying in small planes. I have noticed it on many occasions. Somebody should please prove me wrong. I love to be criticized and corrected.

I want to use this opportunity to appeal to Buhari, Amechi and Emefiele to do something about the issues being raised by these airliners – especially the maintenance issues. I know we have to preserve our forex, but they should put on their thinking caps and save us from any catastrophe. 

ONE OTHER BURNING ISSUE

SOLVING ONE MAJOR PROBLEM AND CREATING ANOTHER PROBLEM

It is clear that the major reason we are experiencing fuel scarcity is because of the unavailability of forex. Thus, Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, proposed a novel solution. He got his former colleagues in the IOCs to set aside huge forex for oil marketers. Perfect.

Compare this action to what was reported after CBN stopped the sale of forex to the BDCs. It was reported that the BDCs could now source forex from oil companies, exporters, or other agencies. This makes sense because oil companies can sell dollars to BDCs when they want to pay salaries, since they earn dollars, not naira.

If the forex meant to go to BDC goes to a good course such as getting petrol back in Nigeria, then BDCs might not have the dollars to sell to importers, who import basic items we need. Basic items might soon become scarce.

Also, scarcity of dollars in the hands of the BDCs might result in the naira further depreciating in the parallel market.

God help us!