APC congresses, Buhari and the governors

BY ZAYYAD I. MUHAMMAD

The All Progressive Congress (APC) has begun the processes of its ‘make or mar’ congresses for wards and local governments slated between July 10 and August 6, 2021. The congresses are critical because of the nature of the APC– a conglomerate made up of diverse interests and competing blocs. The 2023 presidency politics will be highly embedded in the congresses and the national convention.

All the blocs and interest groups will flex their muscles in order to have an upper hand in the wards and local government congresses. The game will climax in zonal and national conventions.

In Nigerian politics, the formation of the national working committee (NWC) of political parties during the national convention is mainly a product of consensus rather than competition, but interest groups will still try to have an upper hand.

The APC has not announced a definite date for its national convention, but intense horse-trading, ploys and scrabble for ‘who gets what’ are already ongoing. This is normal in political parties and most common in Nigeria. However, the outcome of the APC’s national convention is expected to be a product of consensus within the various interest groups in the party.

The big question is; what is the position of the progressive governors and President Muhammadu Buhari? This is very key because all the interest groups know that the position of Buhari and sometimes that of the governors ultimately determines who gets what. This is also common in Nigerian party politics, though not a written rule, but it is generally accepted. The position of the president is the deciding factor.

There are hints that the APC governors are silently trying to make sure that the Governor Mai Mala Buni-led caretaker/extraordinary planning committee (CECPC) continue as interim caretaker, a tactful strategy ahead of the 2023 presidency politics and to keep control of the party structures as well as not take any chance.

The APC governors may succeed with their schemes, because, come 2023, the APC has no reasons to retain presidential power in the north. Besides, the ruling party has no strong presidential candidate from the north. Most of the presidential hopefuls in the APC are from the south — Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Vice-President Yemi Osinabjo, Governor Kayode Fayemi, Governor Dave Umahi, and Governor Ben Ayade may not be left out, including others.

So, keeping the Buni committee keeps the control of the party within their grip. That said, allowing Buni, a serving governor, to continue steering the affairs of the party is very strange to Nigeria’s political party system. The best and the most strategic option for APC is to elect people to manage the party before the 2023 elections.

There are some candidates from the north-east and north-central Nigeria who have shown interest in leading the APC. All of them are strong candidates and are being promoted by many groups and bigwigs. From the north-east, we have people like the former governor of Adamawa state, Admiral Murtala Nyako, Senator Kashim Shettima, Senator Ali Modu Sherif and the well-educated Sunny Moniedafe from Adamawa state.

From the north-central, there are former governor & senator Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, former governor George Akume and former governor & senator Adamu Abdullahi. All these hopefuls are highly qualified but politics, consensus, and interests will determine the emergence of the new NWC of the APC.

In fact, someone can get into the NWC of a political party even if he/she is not on the ground at the venue of the national convention, because at earlier stated, consensus often produces the members of the NWC. There are rumors that one of the candidates from the north-central is being promoted by Ahmed Bola Tinubu, who seems to be carving a bloc to promote his clinching of the APC presidential ticket. This is not strange, because many people seeking to be a member of the NWC are being promoted by one interest or individual or a bloc.

The forthcoming APC congress and national convention will be a make or mar for the party if consensus fails and one interest bloc hijack the key positions because of the politics 2023 presidency. APC must align the membership composition of the NWC with its strategies for the 2023 presidential election. For instance, it must look for youths to fill some positions and that of the vice-presidential candidate in particular. However, at the end of the day, President Muhammadu Buhari’s input will definitely determine the direction of the convention and who gets what. This is not a written rule in Nigerian party politics but an acceptable one in party politics.

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja and can be reached via [email protected], 08036070980