APC, PDP, and the rest: A three-way battle for 2027

BY ZAYYAD MUHAMMAD

As politicking for the 2027 elections gradually gains momentum, both new and familiar scenarios will inevitably unfold. Nigeria’s political landscape is dynamic and often geopolitical, and 2027 will be no exception.

The truth is that despite its internal wranglings and historical baggage, any coalition that does not have the PDP as its central pillar is unlikely to achieve the kind of national spread required to win a presidential election in Nigeria. The PDP, with its extensive grassroots network and long-standing presence across all six geopolitical zones, remains the only opposition party with a truly nationwide structure; even if its influence has somewhat waned in recent years.

Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the two significant third-force figures from the 2023 elections, do not appear particularly enthusiastic about forming a coalition, at least not one that’s clearly defined or strategic. Obi, from all indications, seems prepared to give the presidency another shot. However, the conditions that led to his surprise performance in 2023, particularly the wave of ‘unsolicited’ support from some urban youth and Christian voters disillusioned with the mainstream parties — have largely diminished.

That groundswell was driven in large part by a reactive fear: the controversy surrounding Bola Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, which sparked anxiety among many Christians. Today, that fear has dissipated. Ironically, the Muslim-Muslim arrangement has more visible Christian participation in government than expected.

Kwankwaso, on the other hand, appears to have adopted a more pragmatic, localised approach- ‘ state capture. Kwankwaso’s posture suggests a strategy of quiet autonomy: “I have Kano; let me control it. I won’t interfere with you, and don’t interfere with me.” This ‘state capture’ mentality may give him relevance at the regional level but severely limits his national appeal.

President Tinubu, meanwhile, has carelessly or perhaps inadvertently squandered the political capital the APC enjoyed in the North from 2015 to 2023. During that period, the APC could count on overwhelming support from northern voters, often to the extent that votes from a single state could nearly cancel those from entire geopolitical zones elsewhere. That dominance was largely tied to geopolitical strongholds strategy. Tinubu’s failure to maintain and galvanise this strategy will eat up APC’s traditional votes in the north, which is very key for APC’s second-term return.

Furthermore, Tinubu has, whether knowingly or not, given new oxygen to the dormant CPC bloc — a bloc of the APC that once represented the ideological and political base of Buhari’s loyalists. Now, with the central leadership perceived as disconnected from northern interests, the CPC bloc sees an opportunity to reassert itself. In places like the north-west, especially, this could lead to a realignment of loyalties, with Tinubu’s influence weakening in favour of those seen as more authentically representing northern interests. Nepotism is nepotism: While Muhammadu Buhari’s nepotism was largely regional and driven by northern priorities, Tinubu’s appears more ethnic and Lagos-centric, which could prove politically costly if not urgently recalibrated. That said, Tinubu still has time and political tools to course-correct before 2027 if he chooses to use them wisely.

The current promoters of a coalition, however, appear to be relying on an outdated strategy. The 2015-style bandwagon movement, built around the idea of ‘change’ is unlikely to resonate with voters in 2027. Buhari’s eight-year presidency has left a mixed legacy, with many citizens feeling disillusioned by the unmet expectations. The old formula simply won’t work again.

In 2027, two key elements will determine electoral successes, not only at the centre but in states as well: massive resources; both financial and structural, and science. Gone are the days when charisma and rhetoric alone could deliver victory. Any political group serious about winning must embrace a data-driven strategy. This means conducting detailed research into voter behaviour, turnout patterns, demographic shifts, and regional voting strengths. It also means understanding the psychology of the electorate, particularly among young voters, who now make up a decisive segment. Apolitical political scientists, data analysts, and behavioural experts will play a more important role than ever before. Without this, even the best-funded campaign could fall flat.

Finally, it is important to accept that the coalition model of 2015 and the voting behaviour of 2023 are not likely to repeat themselves. Nigeria’s political terrain has evolved a little so to speak. As of today, though tomorrow is pregnant, the three major blocs heading into the 2027 elections appear to be: Tinubu’s APC, the PDP, and the rest. And, It is shaping up to be a near-zero-sum game

Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Abuja. He can be contacted via [email protected]