Aregbesola’s return match, ‘change the change’ — and other reasons Adeleke defeated Oyetola

Ademola Adeleke was elected governor of Osun state on Saturday, but it was by no means an easy ride for the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). His 403, 371 votes trumped those of Gboyega Oyetola, the incumbent governor and member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who polled 375,027.

Many saw the defeat coming and will not consider it an upset because Adeleke was believed to have won the previous face-off with Oyetola in 2018 before it was “manipulated” — although the case went all the way to the supreme court which upheld the result declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

But many observers will consider this as an upset because Oyetola, who has been governor for almost four years, is supposed to enjoy the power of incumbency and even recently cleared pension arrears and has been paying salaries regularly. They expected those things to work in his favour.

How then did Adeleke pull this through?

THE AREGBESOLA FACTOR

Rauf Aregbesola and Oyetola, his successor as governor of Osun state, have not been on good terms since 2018 and rather than the relationship being repaired, it was getting further damaged with time. Oyetola was Aregbesola’s chief of staff but Aregbesola did not really support his governorship ambition, eventually leading to a clash and a falling out with Bola Tinubu, reputed as the godfather of south-west politics.

Tinubu, who is now the APC presidential candidate, is understood to be related to Oyetola by blood and did not take kindly to Aregbesola’s frosty relationship with Oyetola, who himself did not help matters by alienating Aregbesola in the political affairs of the state. TheCable understands that when Osun celebrated its 30th anniversary in 2021, the state government refused to invite Aregbesola to the event and also did not consider him for the honorary awards given to distinguished citizens of the states.

Although Aregbesola unsuccessfully backed Moshood Adeoti, who served as the secretary to the state government under him, for the APC ticket this time around, there were no efforts to reconcile with him when the campaign council was constituted for Oyetola. Aregbesola was excluded. It would appear he decided to pull his weight in Saturday’s election. The Osun Progressives (TOP), of which he is a member, did not work for Oyetola and this further harmed his re-election chances.

Aregbesola was out of the country when the election took place — a signal that he would rather not be around to mobilise for the candidate of his party. He simply looked the other way in what can be declared as a clear case of revenge. Oyetola lost by a margin of about 28,000 votes and he would be wondering what might have been if all the APC troops were fighting on his side.

‘POLITICALLY RUDDERLESS’

Oyetola, despite being chief of staff to a governor considered as an articulate speaker and political strategist, was not regarded as a man with the political heft. He was not particularly charismatic and was viewed in many quarters as being in office only because of Tinubu.

“He was not particularly in touch with the people, compared to Ademola Adeleke who has the common touch. Forget all the talk about his dancing moves which the media usually criticise. Adeleke connected with the voters very well,” a member of TOP told TheCable.

“It is true that Oyetola does not have the gift of the garb but he could have improved himself over the years. There are schools where these skills are honed. He needed to be seen as someone who could communicate with the people and make them love him.”

Also, the APC in Osun state weakened under Oyetola’s watch because of his lack of connection with the politicians, according to an insider who spoke with TheCable. The loss of the Aregbesola machinery was enough problem, but things got further complicated as Oyetola’s own “Ileri Oluwa” group also began to fall apart. He was accused of not “servicing” the party structure at the different levels: state, federal constituencies, state constituencies, local governments and wards.

He lost the election in hugely populated areas in Osun central, with Bisi Akande, a former governor of the state and one of APC elders, unable to deliver his zone to him.

‘CHANGE THE CHANGE’

APC came to power in 2015 promising Nigerians “change” but it was a slogan that soon backfired as many people complained that the country was not experiencing the promise. Soon, the PDP started campaigning on “changing” the change. The party took maximum advantage of that in the Osun governorship election. Many of the voters who chose Adeleke above Oyetola told TheCable that they just wanted a change and that they could not imagine another four years of APC.

Some of the voters who spoke with TheCable said people were tired of Oyetola and wanted a change — despite the fact that the governor pays salaries promptly, unlike Aregbesola who owed arrears and became unpopular among the civil servants towards the end of his tenure.

“There is this fear that Oyetola could change in his second term in office. He hasn’t promoted the civil servants since he assumed office till a few weeks to the election,” one of those who voted for Adeleke told TheCable in Osogbo, the state capital.

At the national level, Nigerians have been groaning about the rising cost of living and insecurity and PDP has been campaigning that the ruling party must be voted out at all levels. The campaign did not yield dividends in Ekiti state where APC retained the governorship last month, and it is difficult to know how far it worked in Osun.

Still, the Adelekes are a political force in Osun and the PDP is not a pushover in the state. Isiaka Adeleke, their eldest brother, was the first governor of the state, elected in 1991. He was also an APC senator before his death in 2017. Ademola Adeleke inherited his structure and goodwill after his death and was elected to replace him on the platform of PDP.

AND THEN, THERE IS THE BVAS MAGIC…

Elections organised by INEC with the use of the bimodal voter accreditation system (BVAS) have been generally hailed as credible, starting with the Anambra governorship in November 2021. BVAS is an electronic device designed to read permanent voter cards (PVCs) and authenticate voters. All accredited voters are captured on the voter, thereby making overvoting easily detectable.

Also, signed results sheets are captured and uploaded to the INEC servers immediately. This makes ballot snatching and ballot stuffing less attractive and also prevents the alteration of result sheets before collation. Quietly, INEC is using technology to improve the efficiency and  credibility of elections. Politicians will now be left with resorting to technical and legal tussles to upturn the outcome.