Atiku, Obi, Tinubu, Kwankwaso: How it will be won and lost

Following my last intervention in March, on the ASUU strike, which surprisingly has continued unabated, I made a personal decision to focus attention on the activities of political parties and the process leading to their primaries, which is a prerequisite for the nomination of candidates for all elective positions.

It was an easy decision for me, after many years of policy analysis and political commentary, I have come to the knowledge that in the end what happens in the political parties is more important than what happens on election day, this is because the public is often constrained to the options that are presented by the political parties, and since we do not presently have the option of independent candidacy in Nigeria, and even if independent candidacy were an option today, then it would be easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for anyone to win election as an independent candidate without political party structures. Facts!

For many years, I have been consistent in my advocacy, that we must go a step further than just voting for the lesser evils in an election, we must shape our options, by encouraging the brightest and the best of us to go into the political parties, to become key and active players in the parties, so that they can offer us the quality options that we badly desire on the ballot. And I think that the events of the last three months must have vindicated me, that we must join the political parties so that we can influence their options from within because as we have seen, internal democracy is the most critical in the election value chain.

The last three months have not just been about following these political party primaries as a bystander, in some cases, I have had to get involved, by showing not-so-subtle support for aspirants across political divides, that I am most convinced about. Although, while some of the aspirants, could not get the required support to emerge as eventual candidates because of the peculiar nature of our politics, there were a few bright moments, particularly that of the emergence of my brother, Bankole Wellington, whose campaign declaration I personally attended. You can, therefore, predict my joy after he was able to successfully defend his mandate, valiantly and courageously.

Now that the party primaries are over, I will, in the coming months, commence with a candidate-by-candidate assessment based on their manifesto and promises with the hope of making sound inferences for readers to make an informed decision.

For purely academic purposes, I believe that the 2023 presidential election is now effectively between four major candidates, although some would argue, that there are only two contenders, that notwithstanding, I have decided to weigh in on the chances of the following candidates: Peter Obi, presidential candidate of Labour Party, Alh. Atiku Abubakar, Peoples Democratic Party, Rabiu Kwankwaso, presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party, and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, presidential candidate of the All-Progressives Congress.

Overall, while Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu may have better name recognition, national spread, and the presence of political party structures across the federation, other candidates like Peter Obi and Kwakwanso, resonate resoundingly among young and middle-class voters, and those who are looking for an opportunity for a shift from the status quo and established system.

But today is not an analysis of the strength and weaknesses of the candidates, rather it is a projection into the future, assuming all conditions remain the same or by marginal and negligible shift, by the time of the actual voting in February 2023.

It is my projection that Atiku Abubakar, the PDP candidate, would get the highest number of votes from the south-south geo-political zone which is the stronghold of the PDP. I also project that he would record the highest number of votes from the north-east, where he comes from, although he would face strong opposition from the states that are currently controlled by the ruling All Progressives Congress in the region, overall, he will score just enough to win the region. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the APC candidate, will have the homeboy advantage in the south-west, he is expected to score the highest number of votes in the region, considering that his party controls at least five of the states in the region. I also project that he would record the highest number of votes from the north-west, where Rabiu Kwankwaso is also expected to put up a strong fight, particularly in Kano, but my conclusion is that a combination of the Buhari effect and the dominance of APC in the region, should give him the edge after all.

Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party, is projected to win a majority of the votes from the south-east, and a major slice from the south-west, particularly Lagos, where most young and new voters will be rooting for him. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is projected to get a major share from the north-west, and part of the north-east, although I do not predict that he would win either of the geo-political zones.

In my opinion, the major battleground will be the north-central, or should I say the decider will be in the north-central. The region is expected to play a critical role in giving the edge to whoever would eventually emerge as the president. This is because none of the candidates can boast of a 100% acceptance in the region, which leaves the region for the taking, for whoever is able to move quickly to penetrate the region.

This projection is largely focused on the chance of the candidates by region, this is assuming that the candidates are aware of the minimum constitutional requirements, of scoring 25% of the votes in at least 24 states of the federation in addition to scoring the highest number of the total votes cast in the election.

It is my belief that this intervention would enrich preliminary debate and discussions on the likely turns of events leading to the 2023 elections. The next seven months of pre-campaign and campaign activities are expected to be long and grueling, although while it is an indication that so much can be achieved, I also doubt that the outcome in February, will be far different from current realities.