Biden’s exit and America’s November blues

What a difference a debate can make! It just made a big difference in the United States in the lead-up to that country’s November 5, 2024, general elections. For months, the White House fended off insinuations that President Biden at 81, had become too old for the job and that the Democrats should look in another direction. During the primaries, Biden mispronounced names, and committed so many gaffes, the miscues and slips were just too many, too obvious.

On March 19, 2021, Biden stumbled thrice as he tried to climb Air Force One to board a flight to Atlanta. In June 2023, Biden called British Prime Minister President Rishi Sunak and ended up joking; “I just promoted you”. In the same month, he said “Putin is losing the war in Iraq”, whereas he meant Ukraine. In February 2024, he said Mitterrand was from Germany. He meant France. He was referring to Emmanuel Macron, not Mitterrand who left office in 1995. This same year, President Biden mixed up Egypt and Mexico. He forgets names and events. He freezes in the middle of speeches. Between January and April 2024, alone, a total of 148 gaffes were recorded against him! And yet despite that, his medical doctors reported positively on his health claiming that he was strong enough. In the Democratic primaries 4, 000 delegates voted for him to become the presumptive candidate of the Democratic Party.

His campaign team was looking forward to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August where he was expected to be formally adopted by the Democrats as their presidential candidate in the November 5 election. But everything came unstuck on June 27, at the first Biden debate with Donald Trump then the presumptive Republican candidate. Biden was confused, inaudible, he performed so poorly that his party members were thoroughly embarrassed. His co-debater, Trump, is 78, only three years younger but he was much smarter even if he told many lies throughout the interview. Biden did not have enough presence of mind to check-mate him. Even his supporters were so shocked that what they were dealing with was not ageism, but the fact that out of a choice between two old men, the Republican was the sprightly one, with the fire in his belly still burning. Democratic party members soon began to call for Biden to withdraw, and not bother to attend the second debate scheduled for September. The President resisted all the entreaties to step aside, insisting only the Lord Almighty could tell him to get out of the race. “I’m not going anywhere”, he announced. But the debate had exposed the frailty that his handlers and doctors had always tried to hide. Americans and the whole world could tell that age had finally caught up with the oldest American President in history.

In the midst of it all, on July 11, President Biden committed the additional gaffe of calling Vice President Harris, Vice President Trump. America, through that June 27 debate has shown the value of the electorate seeing their leading candidates in flesh and blood and having the opportunity to compare and contrast. In Nigeria here, presidential candidates often refuse to attend presidential debates and they get away with their snobbery. They even insist on who they would rather appear with. Nigerian political campaigns are not driven by ideas, robbing the electorate of the much-needed opportunity of getting to know what the candidate has in store about key issues be it inflation, unemployment, manufacturing or national security.

In 2014/2015, General Muhammadu Buhari refused to participate in any presidential debate. Nobody knew exactly what he wanted to do or how other than the general three-pronged promise to fix insecurity, the economy and fight corruption. Within four years, he had failed on each of the promises. He ran for a second term in 2019 and won based on the assumption that he had unfinished business to accomplish. By the time he left office in 2023, he had not finished any business. He left Nigeria worse than he met it. Nigerians were not even sure he knew what he promised the people. He once famously disowned some of the promises in his manifesto! Perhaps if Buhari had taken to the podium to have a debate, Nigerians would have been able to assess him more dispassionately away from the blinkered propaganda and deception of hungry public relations experts, brand consultants and APC politicians.

In 2023, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, now president, also dodged presidential debates. We must reach a point in this country when presidential debates must become compulsory. If at the time, the minimum qualification is still a school certificate attempt or a miserable certificate of attendance at a seminar, the aspirants should be allowed to speak in any local language of their choice and have their thoughts translated. Leadership in Nigeria should be about competence and ability, not geography and quota.

The unexpected sometimes happens in politics as it did in the United States when on July 13, an assassin, Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, tried, in a crooked manner, to kill President Trump while he was campaigning in Butler County, in Pennsylvania. A rally attendee, fire chief Corey Comperatore was killed. Two persons were seriously injured. President Trump survived the bullet grazing his ear, and he still had enough presence of mind to tell his supporters: “Fight. Fight. Fight” as blood trickled down his right cheek. Republicans have milked this to project Trump as a symbol of strength and defiance. “It was God that saved me”, he boasted. “I did it for democracy”, he said. His ratings shot up. His campaign immediately capitalised on the incident, including the production of Trump materials: campaign mementoes, and high sneakers for sale.

President Biden had a televised broadcast condemning the violence. He placed a call to Trump. Republicans blamed the Democrats for the rhetoric that made Biden a target. Democrats in general denounced the politics of violence and harped on unity. But this X-factor only ended up propelling Trump to the top in the polls. Trump-mania and MAGA-mania were both afoot, cemented by the announcement of Senator J D. Vance, 39, (R-Ohio) as Trump’s Vice-Presidential candidate, further cemented with Trump’s formal acceptance of the Republican nomination on July 18, at Milwaukee, Wisconsin. “I am not supposed to be here”, he told the crowd, many of them with bandaged ears. “Yes, you are!”, the crowd chorused in response. The Trump trade machine was on a roll. It looked unstoppable.

The Biden machine was slowly grinding to a pause. Democratic Super PACs and donors began to stop their donations. Bundlers who mobilise funds for the campaign reported that donors were no longer picking up their calls. Party members and supporters like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and film stars such as George Clooney and Robert de Niro also added their voices. Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries were also said to have met with President Biden to point out the damage that may be done to the party and other candidates in battleground and swing states if Biden insisted that he would remain in the race. President Barack Obama, Biden’s former boss, was also said to have intervened. More than 30 Democratic party representatives in parliament reportedly joined the clamour for Biden to step aside. Still, Biden dug in. But then again, something else happened when it was disclosed that the president had tested positive for COVID.

On July 17, he retired to his home in Delaware to self-isolate. He left word that if his doctors reported a worsening of his medical condition, he would have to withdraw. Age is a factor in American politics. Health is even more so. In Nigeria, politicians lie about their age. They hide their health status. In a country where records are poorly kept and superstition is at the heart of everything, disclosing one’s health status is taboo. President Buhari spent about an entire year out of a four-year term between 2015 and 2019 on medical vacation. Targeting election into public office as an avenue for treating one’s personal health problems is part of the culture in Nigeria.

As of Saturday, July 20, President Biden was still insisting that he would remain in the race. But by 1.30 ET on Sunday, July 21, he had announced his withdrawal from the race, blindsiding in the process, his senior campaign aides. What happened? Did he jump? Or was he pushed? Was it for health reasons? About 41 Democrat lawmakers had joined the pressure chorus asking Biden to stand aside. It was a seismic decision and a historic one as well. Biden, by that action, became the first sitting American President to withdraw from the presidential race since 1968 when Lydon Baines Johnson did the same due to pressures inflicted by America’s role in the Vietnam War. He joins also a long list of sitting Presidents who took similar steps in American history including Harry S Truman (1952), John Tyler (1844), Millard Filmore (1852), Franklin Pierce (1856), Andrew Johnson (1868), Chester Arthur (1884) and George Washington (1796).

President Biden said while it has been the greatest honour of his life to serve as President, and while he has intended to seek re-election, he has chosen to stand down in “the best interest of my party and the country” and “to focus on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”. He has six more months in office as the 46th President of the United States. He would 30 minutes later, in a post on X endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the person to replace him as the Democratic Party nominee. Biden’s reference to his party and country shows leadership and patriotism. He has acted in a statesman-like manner placing his country and party above personal interest. He has done an even more honourable thing by endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his preferred Democratic candidate.

This gesture does not make Harris automatically the candidate but it places her on a glide path to the Democratic nomination, and it is noteworthy that Jamie Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee has said that the party “will move forward governed by established rules and procedures of the party.” There are questions: will everybody who supported Biden support Harris? Not necessarily. Biden had the support of more than 4, 000 delegates. They will have to now make up their minds afresh. Harris needs 1, 986 Democratic delegates to secure the party’s nomination at its convention starting August 19 in Chicago. By yesterday she had received the support of delegates from Tennessee, Florida, New Hampshire, Louisiana, North Dakota and South Dakota (531 delegates). She will have to work hard to secure the support of more delegates especially now that the names of possible alternatives to her are being mentioned: the Governors of Pennsylvania – Josh Shapiro, Kentucky – Andy Beshear; North Carolina _ Roy Cooper; Illinois – J.B. Pritzker; Michigan – Gretchen Whitmer, Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg; and Arizona Senator – Mark Kelly. But would any of these persons challenge her endorsement by Biden? Will she inherit Biden’s funding? This is already happening. Her campaign has brought fresh energy to the Democratic campaign. Within seven hours yesterday, she had raked in about $52 million from grassroots donations. But is America ready for a black woman as President? Kamala Harris is a daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica – black and South Asian. This remains to be seen, but if she wins the nomination there is no doubt that she and her team will put up a big fight. She is young – 59, and now that she has been anointed by her boss, we are likely to see a different Harris emerging from the shadows. Trump has been characteristically arrogant. He thinks Harris is “crazy”. He is the crazy one in the eyes of many, especially President Biden who believes, and he does not hide his disdain, that “Trump poses an existential threat to American democracy.”

The contempt is, however, mutual. Whereas world leaders have praised President Biden as a “great man” (Canada’s Justin Trudeau), “a man who believes in the interests of the United States” (Australia’s Anthony Albanese), who has “dedicated his life to public service” (New Zealand’s Christopher Luxon), “has shown unwavering support for Ukraine” (Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky); “a true ally of the Jewish people” (Israel’s Isaac Herzog), “a proud American with an Irish soul (Ireland’s Simon Harris) and so on in that tone, Trump dismisses Biden as the “worst President in American history” who should never have been there in the first place.. he should have been in the basement.”

Trump’s assessment is outrightly partisan and biased, it is not what the world knows of Biden. He may have pulled out of the race 107 days to November 5, but he is recommended for the history pages by his record of distinguished public service in a career spanning over 50 years in Washington DC. Politician, lawyer and author, he started his political career in New Castle County Council in 1970, and arrived in Washington DC in January 1973, as a senator representing Delaware. He would remain in that Senate till 2009. He would later serve for two terms as Vice President under President Barack Obama (2009 – 2017). He returned as President under the Democratic ticket in January 2021. He is the oldest man to have served as President of the United States. Washington Post writes that “triumph (and), tragedy define his 50-year political career, one of America’s longest-serving politicians” but certainly when his public service record is properly assessed, he would end up on the more positive side of history and a much higher ground than Trump has imagined.

The 2024 American presidential race is at this point, very much an uncharted territory, especially for Kamala Harris. A more critical realisation is the growing global anxiety about the seemingly inevitable, possibility of the return of Donald J. Trump as US President, accompanied by an even more extreme right-winger, and member of the Trump MAGA party, J.D. Vance.