Boko Haram’s factionalisation ‘mars ceasefire’

The factionalisation of Boko Haram has cast serious doubts over a ceasefire agreement announced by the federal government, but security chiefs who spoke with TheCable said “this was not unexpected”.

Alex Badeh, an air chief marshal and chief of defence staff, had announced on Friday that Boko Haram had declared a ceasefire.

The over 200 schoolgirls kidnapped by the insurgents in April were also to be released in line with the ceasefire agreement.

However, suspected Boko Haram militants have struck in several Borno villages since Badeh’s announcement, forcing Nigerians to question the validity of Badeh’s claim.

“We are going to be in this a little longer,” a senior military officer conversant with the details of the negotiation told TheCable.

“We have always worked with the theory that Boko Haram has many faces. The same thing happened in the Niger Delta. There were various groups the government had to deal with before the amnesty programme could work. Even up till today, some of the Niger Delta militants are still saying they are not part of the peace deal.

“The Chadian government, in this case, authenticated the messages from Boko Haram before informing Nigeria and inviting us to the negotiation.”

An intelligence officer told TheCable that those opposed to the ceasefire among the factions “are likely to step up attacks in the coming weeks”.

Details are still sketchy on the nature of discussions and negotiations going on between representatives of the governments of Chad and Nigeria and Boko Haram.

The meeting is expected to resume tomorrow in N’Djamena, the capital of Chad.

TheCable reported on Saturday that the girls would be released in batches since they are scattered all over west Africa.

The first batch of about 70 girls are expected to be handed over to President Idriss Déby in the next seven days to demonstrate that the ceasefire deal is authentic.

But there also exists a possibility that since the girls have been dispersed in different groups, it may be just one of the factions that will surrender those that are in its care.

A parent of one of the Chibok girls has told Reuters of his frustration following fresh attacks.

“We were jubilating. We had every reason to be happy … but since then the ceasefire has been broken in quite a number of places already,” Lawan Abana told the news agency.

He doubted the credentials of the reported Boko Haram negotiator, an unknown Danladi Ahmadu.

“Can we trust him that he can deliver on this promise of releasing the girls when he has not delivered on the promise of the ceasefire?” Abana said.

Reuters further quoted a note from risk consultancy, Stratfor: “Boko Haram is deeply fractured. The Nigerian government has had a … difficult time identifying a Boko Haram representative who could make compromises and guarantee the entire group will observe them… It is quite possible that Abuja has reached an agreement with a legitimate representative of a specific cell… that holds the kidnapped schoolgirls captive.”