Nigeria at risk of CBN-induced recession over naira swap, says NGF

The Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) says the country is at risk of recession which will be the result of the naira exchange policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The position of the governors was contained in a communiqué issued at the end of a meeting of the NGF, which held on Saturday.

In the communiqué signed by Aminu Tambuwal, chairperson of the NGF, the governors criticised the CBN over the handling of the naira redesign policy, adding that the resulting naira note scarcity is causing hardship for Nigerians.

“The argument by the CBN for what it describes as the astronomical increase in the currency in circulation as the basis for this policy is not supported by its own data,” the communiqué reads.

“According to the CBN, the currency in circulation increased from N1.4 trillion in 2015 to N3.23 trillion in October 2022. The Bank appears not to have taken into consideration the increase in the size of the country’s nominal GDP over this period, the doubling of consumer prices, rising
population, and the impact of the humongous Ways & Means advances to the federal government by the Central Bank of Nigeria over this period.

“In the circumstances, it is safe to draw either of two conclusions – the CBN data may be incomplete or in fact, Nigerians may have done exceptionally well in the transition to a cashless economy.

“In addition, considering the sizeable informal sector in the nation, the amount of banknotes created in exchange so far by the CBN implies it vastly underestimated the economy’s
actual cash needs.

“The inability to use the new notes has had far-reaching economic effects, leading to the emergence of the Naira black market, severe food inflation, variable commodities prices based on the method of exchange, and long queues as well as crowds around Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) and banking halls across the country with individuals hoping to get a fraction of their money in new notes to meet their daily livelihood.

“The country runs the risk of a CBN-induced recession.”

While expressing “sympathies and support with Nigerians who are experiencing great difficulties” as a result of the maira redesign policy and aggendant consequences, the governors said they are “determined to employ all legitimate channels to ease the situation”.

“It has become necessary to make a distinction between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Naira redesign policy backed by Section 20 (3) of the CBN Act, 2007 and the aspirational policy of going cashless, both of which are mutually exclusive at this time,” they added.

“It is our considered view that what the CBN is at present pursuing is a currency confiscation programme, not the currency exchange policy envisaged under S20(3) of the CBN Act, 2007.

“Currency confiscation in the sense that the liquidity provided to the general public is grossly insufficient due to the restrictions placed on the amount that can be withdrawn regardless of the amount deposited.

“The current approach of the CBN raises concerns about the respect for the civil liberties and rights of Nigerians as it relates to their freedom to use legitimately earned income as they so wish.

“The Forum believes that to deploy a cashless policy and deepen digital transactions, the best practice around the world is to create a suite of incentives to attract customers; rather than a draconian approach as we have witnessed in the last three months.”