Bridging the gap: Addressing Nigeria’s warehouse generation through leadership, innovation, and technology

Nigeria is home to one of the largest youth populations in Africa, with the number of young people graduating from secondary schools consistently exceeding the capacity of the country’s tertiary institutions. This has over time created a pressing issue I have referred to as the “warehouse generation”—a large, untapped group of young Nigerians who, despite completing their basic education, are left without sufficient opportunities to continue their academic or professional journeys. The widening gap between the number of graduates and the limited slots available at tertiary institutions is exacerbating the challenge of youth unemployment, which in turn, negatively impacts the country’s economic growth.

This demographic crisis is not only a failure to accommodate young graduates in educational systems but also a huge social challenge. Many graduates of secondary schools are often left to fend for themselves in an environment that offers few avenues for further education, skill development, and employment. This has led to frustration, increased insecurity, and a deepening divide between Nigeria’s economic potential and its actual development. This thought trail attempts to consider the challenges this causes and possible solutions to be explored.

A. Understanding the Problem

The main issue stems from the limited number of spaces available in Nigeria’s tertiary institutions compared to the large number of youth who graduate from secondary schools every year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, over 2 million students graduate from secondary schools annually, while Nigerian universities can only accommodate a fraction (about 25 percent) of this number. Moreover, many vocational institutions and training centres lack the capacity to scale and provide the essential skills needed to serve the modern job market. The result is a surplus of educated, but under-skilled and unemployed youth. With few employment opportunities, many young people find themselves turning to the informal sector, where the working conditions are often poor and job security is minimal. Others are forced to seek employment outside the country, contributing to Nigeria’s “brain drain,” which further depletes the nation of its human capital.

At the same time, Nigeria’s economy is in dire need of skilled workers in fields such as technology, healthcare, agriculture, and engineering. Bridging this gap requires not only more space in tertiary institutions but also a shift in focus towards providing more practical, hands-on skills training, mentorship, and leadership development opportunities. Also, the gap between the number of youth graduating from Nigerian secondary schools and the limited capacity of tertiary institutions has led to a variety of challenges, both for the individuals directly affected and for the broader Nigerian society. These challenges include:

1. High Unemployment and Underemployment: In the first quarter of 2024, Nigeria’s unemployment rate was 5.3%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This is an increase from 5.0% in the third quarter of 2023. The unemployment rate for males was 4.3%, and 6.2% for females. The unemployment rate for urban areas was 6.0%, and 4.3% for rural areas. The youth unemployment rate was 8.4%, which is a decrease from 8.6% in the third quarter of 2023. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for work. With millions of youth unable to gain access to higher education or adequate vocational training, the job market becomes saturated with unqualified and under-skilled individuals. This leads to a notable increase in unemployment and underemployment, particularly among young people. As a result, the Nigerian economy suffers from a high proportion of idle, frustrated, and disillusioned youth who are unable to contribute productively to the economy. Many of these young adults are found venting their anger on the social media space, while others engage in unwholesome activities.

2. Economic Disparity: This is a critical issue stemming from the lack of opportunities for youth in many developing nations, including Nigeria and South Africa, where a sizeable portion of the youth population faces limited access to education and skills development. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), 72.6% of young people in Sub-Saharan Africa are either unemployed or underemployed, a situation exacerbated by the failure of tertiary institutions to absorb all secondary school graduates. This forces many young people into informal sectors or low-paying, low-skill jobs, where wages often fall below the poverty line. In Nigeria alone, youth unemployment is estimated to be over 40%, contributing to rising income inequality and a growing economic divide. The disparity between educated and uneducated youth deepens social and regional inequalities, as opportunities for meaningful employment and upward mobility are not equally distributed. Additionally, the lack of access to higher education and vocational training has led to a growing sense of frustration and disillusionment among young people, which could fuel social unrest. The rising economic divide, driven by unequal access to education and skills, not only stifles individual potential but also undermines broader national economic stability and growth.

3. Increased Crime and Social Instability: These are the direct offshoot of our growing youth unemployment crisis in Nigeria and similar economies. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s youth unemployment rate stands at a staggering 42.5%, a figure that reflects the frustration of millions of young people unable to secure jobs or continue their education. Imagine this happening in a country with a median age of 18.1 years, which means that half of the population is younger than that age. This lack of opportunities often leads youth to feel alienated from society, with many turning to crime, illegal activities, or other anti-social behaviours as a means of survival or expression of their frustration. Research by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) indicates that areas with high unemployment rates and a lack of education are more prone to increased criminal activities, including petty theft, drug abuse, and violence. In Nigeria, youth-driven violence, particularly in urban areas, has surged in recent years, often linked to the high levels of disenfranchisement among young people. For instance, youth gangs and militant groups have been known to exploit the vulnerability of young Nigerians, particularly in the Niger Delta and northeastern regions. The ripple effects of this social instability extend beyond crime, as it places a huge strain on Nigeria’s law enforcement and social systems, diverting resources and attention from other critical national issues. As disillusioned youth turn to crime, not only does it compromise public safety, but it also creates an environment of insecurity, which hampers investment and economic development, further deepening the cycle of poverty and instability.

4. Brain Drain: It has become a major challenge for Nigeria, as the limited capacity of tertiary institutions and the lack of adequate opportunities for skilled education and professional growth push many talented young Nigerians to seek better prospects abroad. According to the National Population Commission, over 15,000 Nigerian professionals are leaving the country every year to pursue higher education or employment opportunities abroad. This outflow of skilled talent, often referred to as “brain drain,” severely impacts Nigeria’s ability to promote innovation, advance technological development, and drive industrial growth. Many of these individuals, including highly educated engineers, scientists, and medical professionals, are drawn to countries with superior educational systems and stronger economic prospects, particularly in regions such as the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada, where educational infrastructure and career opportunities are more robust. In fact, the United Nations estimates that more than 10% of Nigerian professionals live and work abroad, with some reports showing that Nigeria is one of the largest sources of emigrant talent in Africa. This migration of skilled human capital deprives Nigeria of the expertise needed to address pressing national challenges such as technological advancement, healthcare delivery, and sustainable development. The result is a vicious cycle, as the country becomes further disadvantaged in its ability to compete in the global economy, leading to slower industrial growth and a growing gap in innovation. This loss of intellectual resources exacerbates Nigeria’s existing economic challenges and limits its potential for long-term development.

5. Youth Frustration and Disillusionment: These are some other consequences of the widening gap between secondary school graduation rates and available opportunities for higher education and employment in Nigeria. Each year, more than 2 million youth graduate from secondary school, but more than 1.5 million of them are unable to secure spots in tertiary institutions, leaving the larger portion of this demographic with limited prospects annually (if this does not worry the leadership of any country, I wonder what should). According to the National Bureau of Statistics, approximately 50% of Nigerian graduates are either unemployed or underemployed. This lack of educational advancement and meaningful employment opportunities promotes even more frustration and disillusionment among the youth, with many struggling to find a sense of purpose or direction. A study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) reveals that youth unemployment in Nigeria stands at 38%, the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, which leads to widespread feelings of hopelessness and disengagement from the socio-economic systems. As the gap widens, the prospect of a brighter future diminishes, pushing many young Nigerians toward apathy, while others become vulnerable to radicalisation. The absence of proper mentorship, economic stability, and prospects for self-improvement breeds a generation of disillusioned youth whose potential goes untapped. This disenchantment often leads to the abandonment of ambitions, as they are left without clear paths to success. In some cases, this frustration manifests itself in social unrest, with vulnerable young individuals turning to anti-social behaviours, crime, or extremism as a means of expressing their dissatisfaction with the system.

To help us better appreciate the problem through numbers. Let us assume that 2 million youth graduate from secondary schools annually in Nigeria, with 1.5 million unable to secure admission to tertiary institutions each year, and considering that 50% of graduates remain unemployed after completing their education, the cumulative unemployment after 10 years would reach 16.5 million. This total includes the 1.5 million youth per year who are unable to continue their education and the 50% of graduates who cannot secure employment. Do note that after a certain period, 1.75 million persons will be injected into the Nigerian system at an annual minimum. The situation underscores the urgent need to address the educational and employment gap, improve skill development, and create scalable workforce solutions to absorb the growing youth population and reduce the socio-economic challenges they face.

6. Increased Dependence on Government Aid: The growing group of intelligent but under-employed or unemployable youth often turn to state-sponsored aid or social support programs for survival, placing an immense strain on the limited financial resources of the Nigerian government. Highlights of the 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index survey reveal that: 63% of persons living within Nigeria (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. The National MPI is 0.257, indicating that poor people in Nigeria experience just over one-quarter of all possible deprivations. According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s social spending as a percentage of GDP is among the lowest in Africa, and with over 130 million people living in poverty, the government’s capacity to sustain extensive aid programs is increasingly limited. Consequently, this reliance on government support could lead to unsustainable fiscal policies, draining resources that are urgently needed for critical infrastructure, healthcare, and other essential sectors. As more young people struggle to find employment, the government could face escalating demands for financial assistance, further exacerbating the country’s economic challenges and pushing public resources to their breaking point. Without deliberate intervention to address the skills gap and create more employment opportunities, Nigeria may find itself caught in a cycle of increasing dependence on state welfare, which could stifle the country’s overall economic potential.

7. Political and Social Unrest: Large numbers of disillusioned, unemployed, and under-skilled youth can be a breeding ground for political instability. Frustrated youth are more susceptible to manipulation by extremist groups or political entities with vested interests in creating chaos. Unrest, strikes, protests, and even violent demonstrations may become more frequent as a means for youth to express dissatisfaction with the government’s inability to provide opportunities.

8. Environmental and Sustainable Development Challenges: As Nigeria grapples with a youth population that faces limited access to education and employment opportunities, its sustainable development efforts are increasingly at risk, particularly in rural and underserved areas. Agriculture, a critical sector that could drive rural development and improve food security, is one such area suffering from a lack of skilled labor. Despite the fact that agriculture contributes to about 25% of Nigeria’s GDP and employs over 70% of the population, there is a severe shortage of younger workers willing or able to adopt modern farming techniques. According to the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, the average age of farmers in Nigeria is over 50, and as younger generations increasingly migrate to urban areas in search of better opportunities, the sector faces a serious demographic challenge. This lack of youth involvement hampers the adoption of sustainable farming practices, the use of technology in agriculture, and innovation needed to increase productivity and ensure environmental sustainability. Consequently, the country’s ability to meet its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in poverty alleviation, hunger reduction, and environmental sustainability, could be measurably delayed. With the current trend, the critical link between a productive youth workforce and sustainable rural development remains unaddressed, potentially stalling progress in vital areas that are essential for the nation’s long-term growth.

That said, let us now consider some suggestions to address this mammoth problem staring us in the face.

B. Proposed Solutions to Bridge the Gap

1. Expanding Access to Tertiary Education

First and foremost, there needs to be an expansion in the capacity of Nigeria’s tertiary institutions. This could be achieved through building more universities and other post-secondary institutions, as well as increasing the capacity of existing ones (looking into hybrid education models through strategic partnership where more emphasis is placed on online expressions). Moreover, public-private partnerships could be explored to build specialised universities in high-demand fields like technology, renewable energy, healthcare, and agribusiness. Additionally, there is a need to explore online education platforms as a cost-effective solution. Virtual learning is becoming an essential tool for educating large numbers of students while cutting down on physical infrastructure and associated costs. The government and private sector should invest in building world-class online educational platforms, accessible not just for the privileged few, but for all young Nigerians, regardless of their location or financial background (may be JAMB requirement could be exempted due to the critical nature of our educational crisis).

2. Promoting Vocational Training and Technical Education

Tertiary education is not the only route to success. Vocational training and technical education must be seen as equally valuable alternatives to a traditional university degree. Creating more vocational centres that provide specialised training in areas like digital marketing, coding, engineering, fashion design, and other skilled trades would empower young people with practical skills that are directly aligned with the demands of the job market. Professional bodies like the Nigerian Society of Engineers (NSE), Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), and Nigerian Medical Association (NMA) among others should create short online diploma courses to provide alternative partway to professionalising the teeming population (in a professional education for all drive). This training must be easily accessible, both geographically and economically. Partnerships with companies, industries, and local governments should be encouraged to sponsor vocational programs, and ensure that these programs equip students with market-ready skills in sustainable ways.

3. Leadership Development and Mentorship Programs

A notable challenge for Nigerian youth is the lack of access to proper guidance and leadership development opportunities. Without mentors or role models, many young people lack the direction they need to successfully navigate their career paths. Again professional organisations like NSE, ICAN, and NMA among others can become more deliberate about systematic mentoring with a guided curriculum. Providing leadership training through workshops, mentorship programs, and youth empowerment initiatives (accessible to all) is a crucial part of addressing the warehouse generation issue. The private sector, government, and even alumni networks from universities could play key roles in facilitating mentorship programs that equip youth with both leadership skills and industry insights.

4. Harnessing Technology for Empowerment and Scaling Impact

Technology can play an enormous role in bridging the gap between Nigeria’s youth population and opportunities for sustainable success. One of the most promising ways to leverage technology is through other online skill-building platforms, which allow young people to access training from anywhere in the country. Platforms such as Udemy, Coursera, LinkedIn Learning, and Codecademy can be localised and adapted to Nigerian contexts. Providing access to these online platforms at subsidised rates or free of charge for Nigerian youth would empower them to gain skills that can enhance their employability and entrepreneurial capacity. Additionally, the government could collaborate with technology companies to create virtual mentorship and internship programs to prepare youth for the labor market (like MicroMentor.org – a platform that allows mentors across different geographical spaces engage with entrepreneurs in various countries over the internet to spark transformation).

Furthermore, Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, and big data can also be harnessed to identify high-demand skills and forecast trends in the job market, allowing training programs to be more targeted and aligned with future opportunities. For example, an AI-powered platform could analyse job market trends, skills gaps, and regional opportunities to create personalised learning pathways for students.

5. Support for Entrepreneurs and Startups

Another solution lies in promoting the entrepreneurial spirit among Nigerian youth. Many young people have entrepreneurial aspirations, but often lack the capital, resources, and knowledge to start businesses. The government, in collaboration with the private sector, can set up more support initiatives for youth-led startups through incubators, accelerators, and innovation hubs. This would provide mentorship, access to funding, and the necessary tools to help young entrepreneurs bring their ideas to life. Leveraging technology to build businesses is also crucial. With the widespread availability of smartphones and internet access, young entrepreneurs can now start tech-based businesses with relatively low overhead costs. Government-backed initiatives such as tax incentives and low-interest loans can help these startups scale their operations and create jobs.

In conclusion, addressing the warehouse generation issue requires a multifaceted approach, involving the expansion of tertiary education, the promotion of vocational and technical training, leadership development, and the creation of a conducive environment for entrepreneurial growth. At the same time, technology offers an invaluable tool for scaling the impact of these initiatives. By embracing technological solutions such as online education, AI-powered training platforms, and tech-driven entrepreneurship, Nigeria can create an ecosystem that allows young people to thrive and contribute meaningfully to the economy. The country’s future rests in the hands of its youth, and by providing them with the resources, skills, and opportunities to succeed, Nigeria will be able to transform its warehouse generation into a productive force, driving economic growth and societal development for years to come.

Thank you for the enormous investment in time, patience, and attention. Please follow my Medium: https://medium.com/@roariyo (for more of my curated thoughts) and LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/olufemi-ariyo-923ba6130/ or send an email to [email protected]