Buhari has his last chance with 2017

Finally, we are in 2017. It is the year of fortune teller.

This year, President Muhammadu Buhari’s political future will be determined. The fulfillment or failure of the promised change will be the common factor.

But I think Buhari has a rare chance to improve his profile this 2017.

The capture of Sambisa forest by the Operation Lafiya Dole last December is a good chance for the president to improve his ratings.

But so much more will need to be done to consolidate on the gain.

Unexpectedly, counterterrorism experts have counseled us to be cautiously optimistic about seeing the end of Boko Haram so soon.

I cannot disagree based on my personal findings about insurgency, a research of many years.

Oh, and of course the fact that despite the claim by the military and the president that we’re seeing the end of Boko Haram militancy, the inability of the government to rescue the remaining kidnapped Chibok girls and a few comebacks we have seen of Boko Haram in Madagali, Adamawa State, and in some part of Borno State placed a direct question mark on the claim.

The president’s opportunity with the anti-corruption campaign is another rare good chance to repair his image.

With his anti-corruption czar, Ibrahim Magu, who heads the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) under public scrutiny for hobnobbing with someone being investigated for corrupt practices by the commission is too serious to be ignored by Mr. President.

The documents in circulation about the rent payment for his upscale mansion that costs $20 million a year by his good friend Air Commodore Mohammed Umar, and his freebie junket on airplane belonging to the later cannot be dismissed.

The president will do well to get rid of Magu with the New Year.

There are others in his cabinet that he can no longer keep, if he must increase his gains with Nigerians. One of such is the Secretary to the Federal Government, Babachir David Lawal.

Lawal has a reputation for arrogance and now he has added a badge of corruption with a contract his company got from the Presidential Initiative for the North East (PINE)

A Senate ad-hoc committee looking into the problems being faced by of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in the North east had accused the SGF of several misdeeds including failing to account for N2.5 billion PINE funds and awarding contracts to his friends and cronies, some of whom turned around and paid kickbacks into his company’s accounts.

Honestly, the PINE fund is now another defence arms and equipment procurement managed by ONSA under President Goodluck Jonathan. PINE is another ground where vultures feast.

The next place where the chance is for Buhari is with his populist agenda to pay the poor. That social spending, if properly managed without scandal will help build a strong image for the president before the election year.

But I have a concern. While we have been told that the N5,000 monthly payout is now reaching the hands of the beneficiaries, the transparency around it needs more light. The goal of the government must also be clear to the beneficiaries as social benefits cannot be a lifetime for recipients.

In the United States where there are different types of social benefits, those in different categories understand the limitations and how things rotate from one generation to another.

For instance, once the government agency handling social benefits calculates that you have appreciable income, then you’re automatically replaced with another household with such need.

In Finland, where similar act is being carried out this year as a pilot phase for the jobless in particular, the government is clear about why unconditional money is being paid out to the unemployed.

The idea according to the government agency is to use the two-year trial period of the scheme to eliminate the “disincentive problem” among the unemployed.

The government of Finland hopes people without job will have something in their hands to pursue job search and could pick up low- paying jobs without fears “of losing out something.” Ultimately they will climb from low-paying jobs to the high ones and become catalysts.

Behind that incentive is the truth that a jobless person in Finland may refuse a low-income or short-term job for the simple fear of having his financial benefits reduced drastically under Finland’s complex social security system.

So the Finish government is doing something to stimulate the unemployed people to go out and seek for jobs.

Now, if the idea behind Nigeria’s social benefit is simply political, it will run into a big ditch with no opportunity for Buhari to take the advantage to improve his profile.

It’s debatable but rolling out a national programme without clear coverage of all the states, even in a pilot phase is a precursor to failure.

The argument that some states do not have social register begs the issue for a programme that had been planned for implementation in the last 20 months.

In fact, the payouts should have been left for the states to managed using national fund with guiding rules or at best for each state to come up with their resident rules.

I could go on, but I seriously think Buhari has the opportunity to make the change happen this year with a robust economy and quick delivery of his plan for a truly new Nigeria, before 2018 comes and the hot wind of politics begins to blow.

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