Can Fubara defeat Wike?

BY BAYO OLUPOHUNDA

Rivers, Nigeria’s oil-rich and arguably the most politically volatile state, is at ‘war’ again. This time, crisis, arising from godfatherism politics that once set the state on fire as political gladiators battle for supremacy and control of resources has reared its head again. Early last week when the state’s house of assembly was firebombed and erupted into an orgy of violence, it was deja vu all over again.

Rivers state has cemented its infamy as the south-south version of the wild-wild south-west in the 1960s, a modern-day theatre of Nigeria’s political violence, with the current crisis predating 2015 gubernatorial elections that pitched two political heavyweights, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi and Nyesom Wike in a bloody battle of supremacy. That year’s crisis threw the state into violent killings and destruction of properties. It’s been years since the crisis. Both protagonists Amaechi and Wike emerged from the violence with the latter serving out a two-term tenure as a governor and the former, a minister under Buhari

But history has a way of repeating itself.

The current political impasse evokes nostalgia. But this time, there are new actors in this dangerous game of Russian Roulette. The godfather, Wike, bared his fangs when lawmakers loyal to him made a move to impeach his ‘godson’, Governor Amaopusenibo Siminalayi “Sim” Joseph Fubara, a man who is a proud product of Wike’s godfather politics. The embattled Fubara had himself revealed that his present travail is ‘a father and son issue. So it won’t be an understatement to say the governor had it coming.

For every plot hatched by the godfather, there are always the henchmen willing to execute the plans to the letter. On a Monday following the fire in the assembly, the stage was set to teach the godson some lesson on how not to dare the godfather. The lawmakers, who themselves were products of godfather politics, led by the speaker Martin Amaewhule, held a meeting where they signed an impeachment notice against Fubara.

They then proceeded to remove the House Leader, Edison Ehie, who was strongly opposed to the impeachment of the governor and suspended three other members said to be the governor’s men. However, Fubara secured relief as he was able to swing some lawmakers to his side after having a panic meeting with them at the Government House.

As the intrigues unfolded, a cross-section of Nigerians had accused Wike of masterminding the crisis after rumours began circulating that the governor reportedly discarded Wike’s instructions which prompted an impeachment procedure against him. Pro-Fubara commentators had also gone to town, throwing heavy accusations at Wike. They accused him of demanding 25% of the Rivers state allocation, with allegations of requesting N2 billion from a N5 billion palliative and 25% of state revenue. However, no official comment has been provided regarding this allegation. President Bola Tinubu has intervened, aiming to reconcile differences between Fubara and Wike.

Tinubu’s involvement follows calls from various quarters, including Arewa leader Alhaji Musa Saidu and the PDP governors, who welcomed his intervention and urged parties to seek resolution rather than conflict. But it remains to be seen how the intervention will resolve this crisis. Personally, I do not expect Tinubu to back Fubara. As a godfather himself, I suspect he would only advise Fubara to reconcile with Wike. Wike’s demands and grouse with Fubara are serious booby traps that will make the governor a perpetual yes man. He had accused Fubara of associating with political adversaries, exacerbating their differences. He warned against any interference with Rivers’ political structure. He also justified the rift as a political matter.

Apart from the intervention of the president, there are several political stakeholders that had visited Wike in a bid to resolve the crisis. During one of those visits, Wike had doubled down on his initial stance. According to him “nobody can take away the political structure in Rivers; nobody can intimidate me. If I want to do something, I will do it. The impeachment is not a military coup; it is provided under the constitution. Also, I am not interested in all the rumours, money, this, and that. Rubbish. Absolute rubbish. I just left the office; how many months ago? And I am the FCT minister, so which money?”

Wike’s tough stance has been supported by Rivers elders, who have clarified that he has no hand in the state assembly crisis.

The ongoing political crisis has been characterised as a “father and son problem” by Fubara but its either the governor does not know the enormity of the challenge before him or he is being naive or living in denial. Wike, a master of the long game, fought Amaechi and relegated the former governor to the backwaters of Rivers politics. Fubara should be prepared for the long haul. Does he have the nerve and resources given that Wike used his funds and political structure for him to become governor? In his speech, Fubara had emphasized that any issues between them will be resolved soon, suggesting that it’s a temporary misunderstanding. The governor is being simplistic. Does he know that this is a power play that may even cost him a second term?

What is happening in Rivers state is nothing new.

Nigeria’s contemporary political history since 1999 is replete with disagreements between ‘godsons’ and their political godfathers. In Lagos, the current President, Ahmed Bola Tinubu had a fallout with the then-governor of the state, Akinwunmi Ambode, leading to the latter losing his second term ambition. Indeed, the president is known as the godfather of godfathers of Lagos politics as he has single-handedly produced all the governors that have emerged in Lagos since he left power in 2007.

Wike himself was a product of another godfather, Chibuike Amaechi, until he was able to free himself from his grip when he became governor in 2015. In Enugu state, Chimaroke Nnamani anointed Sullivan Chime in 2007 to succeed him as Governor of Enugu state but the two soon fell apart when Chime severed ties with the Ebeano political dynasty of Nnamani. In Edo state, Adams Oshiomhole, now a senator, literally made life hellish for the then Deputy Governor of the state, Pius Odubu, for daring to eye the governorship seat. His stamp of authority paved the way for Godwin Obaseki.

But history is repeating itself as Obaseki and Shuaibu are currently engaged in a bitter war arising from speculations that the deputy governor is eyeing the governor’s seat.

In Abia state, former Governor Orji Kalu, also fell out with Theodore Orji when the latter became the governor They are yet to reconcile. In Kano, the the feud between Rabiu Kwankwaso and his former deputy Ganduje who he picked as successor is the stuff of legend. Godfatherism has long been a feature of Nigeria’s politics. It did not start with this dispensation and will not go away soon. This phenomenon has been the bane of Nigeria’s political development. It is the reason why those who assume public office are not the best crop of Nigerians.

In Rivers, for example, Wike had insisted on being succeeded by Fubara and he used executive powers to make sure he won the primary thereby denying other contenders an equal playing field. It is the same story all over the country. The best leaders never emerge because the godfather with political influence and funds, who has the party’s machinery in his pocket decides who the party presents through a primary heavily influenced by them. When such selected so-called leaders get to the office their loyalty is first to their godfathers. In many cases, the treasury and appointments are heavily controlled and influenced by the godfather.

When the godson decides to assert himself and break free from the bondage of godfatherism, then all hell will break loose as we have seen in many states across the country. The situation in Rivers state fits the same pattern where the godfather exerts influence on the godson after election. Wike has said he will not back down despite the intervention of President Tinubu. But it’s much deeper than that.

Going by the public utterances of Wike, he appears ready to fight dirty. On his part, Fubara seems caught between a rock and a hard place. He has downplayed the feud and apologised. If he follows this path, he must be prepared to be Wike’s puppet throughout his tenure. If he calls Wike’s bluff by dismantling the political structure the former governor left behind, he would have joined a few godsons who defeated their political godfathers. But can Fubara become his own man? Can he defeat his godfather? Only time will tell.