CBN projects 4.17% GDP growth for 2025, says fiscal, monetary reforms paying off

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow at 4.17 percent.

Muhammad Abdullahi, deputy governor of the CBN’s economic policy directorate, spoke on Tuesday at the 11th edition of the ‘National Economic Outlook: Implications for Businesses in 2025,’ held in Lagos.

The hybrid event was organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) centre for financial studies in collaboration with B. Adedipe Associates Limited.

Speaking on the positive economic outlook, Abdullahi said the economic projections remain optimistic as ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms are already paying off, with GDP expected to increase from the 3.36 percent recorded in 2024.

He said the projected growth is driven by the sustained implementation of government reforms, steady crude oil prices, and improvements in domestic oil production.

The deputy governor said a stable exchange rate would be essential in sustaining the positive trajectory, while ongoing economic reforms are expected to drive a reduction in the inflation rate.

“Achieving the targeted inflation rate of 15 percent in 2025 will require effective collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities, alongside private sector participation for a stable economic environment,” Abdullahi said.

He said the central bank would focus on ensuring price stability and enhancing the financial sector to facilitate the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and critical sectors for businesses to thrive.

CBN’s projection is above the 3.2 percent economic growth forecast made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

‘FG MAKING DELIBERATE STRIDES TO DIVERSIFY REVENUE STREAMS’

Abdullahi said the country’s evolving policy landscape offers both challenges and opportunities for business growth.

“The government is making deliberate strides to diversify its revenue streams and reduce dependence on the volatile oil sector,” he said.

“Through ongoing tax reforms aimed at broadening the tax base and improving collection efficiency, the government is working to establish a more sustainable fiscal environment.

“While these reforms may present challenges in the short term, they are essential for building a more resilient and diversified economy in the long run.

“As businesses, it is crucial to adapt to these changes, understanding that they will ultimately strengthen the economic foundation for future growth.

“As we move forward on this path of exploration and collaboration, we must remain focused on the vast opportunities before us.

“Nigeria’s abundant resources, coupled with the current administration’s commitment to economic reform, offer a fertile ground for innovation, investment, and sustainable growth.”

In his address, Pius Olanrewaju, CIBN president, said the year 2024 brought a mix of challenges and opportunities.

Olanrewaju said the GDP indicated a gradual recovery despite global and domestic economic pressures.

“As we move into 2025, we are presented with both the opportunity and responsibility to critically examine the economic landscape,” Olanrewaju said.

“This forum will help us identify the risks, harness the opportunities, and strategize for the future.”

He commended the participation of industry experts at the annual event, including Kabir Katata, director of research, policy, and international relations at the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), and Henrietta Onwuegbuzie from the Lagos Business School.

Other participants included Akinsola Akeredolu-Ale, chief executive officer (CEO) of Lagos Commodities and Fixtures Exchange; Akeem Lawal, managing director of Interswitch (Purepay); and Chinwe Uzoho, regional managing director for west and central Africa at Network International.