Cross-carpeting chaos: Nigeria’s defection epidemic undermines democracy

In Nigerian politics, political defections—called “cross-carpeting”—have become recurring, often reflecting self-serving interests rather than a commitment to ideology or the electorate’s welfare. Just yesterday, 18th March, President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, sacking the governor, his deputy, and all lawmakers in the House of Assembly. He appointed a retired general to oversee the state’s affairs. While this is not the first state of emergency declared in Nigeria, we should examine past triggers of such decisions.

The first instance of this occurred in May 2004, during the second term of President Olusegun Obasanjo. Religious violence had erupted in Plateau State, culminating in the massacre of over 600 Muslims in Yelwa by Christian militants of the Tarok tribe. In retaliation, Muslims in Kano State launched attacks on Christians, leading to a widespread breakdown of law and order. Obasanjo, citing the failure of then-Governor Joshua Dariye to restore peace, declared a state of emergency in Plateau State and dismissed the governor. At the time, Bola Tinubu, then Governor of Lagos State, condemned the action as unconstitutional.

Similarly, in 2013, President Goodluck Jonathan declared a state of emergency in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states due to the Boko Haram insurgency. Tinubu also criticised the move. In an article he published on 15 May 2013, he argued, “No Governor of a state in Nigeria is the Chief Security Officer. Putting the blame on the Governors, who have been effectively emasculated, for the abysmal performance of the government at the centre which controls all these security agencies, smacks of ignorance and mischief.”

Yet, in his recent declaration of emergency in Rivers State, Tinubu blamed Governor Siminalayi Fubara for the instability while avoiding mention of the real instigator, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike. This raises concerns about whether the move is genuinely about governance or a political strategy to consolidate power ahead of the 2027 elections. In the same 2013 article, Tinubu warned, “This government now wants to use the excuse of the security challenges faced by the Governors to remove them from the states considered hostile to the 2015 PDP/Jonathan project.”

The defection of lawmakers loyal to Wike ignited the heart of the crisis in Rivers State. In response, Governor Fubara declared their seats vacant, arguing that they had abandoned their original party and were no longer legitimate legislators. Consequently, he withheld their salaries and excluded them from governance. However, the Supreme Court later ruled against this, citing insufficient evidence to support the defection claims, reinstating the lawmakers. This incident highlights the complexities of political defections in Nigeria and raises questions about the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) role in enforcing constitutional provisions against defection.

Defections are a longstanding issue in Nigerian politics, calling into question the integrity and character of elected officials who switch parties midway through their tenure. Even for politicians who do not hold elected offices, such could question their integrity and loyalty. On 17 March 2025, Nigerians were met with the news that Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran, popularly known as Jandor, had defected from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). This was particularly striking given his previous strong opposition to the APC’s dominance in Lagos State. Having spearheaded the “Lagos4Lagos” movement, Jandor positioned himself as a fierce critic of the political hegemony in Lagos, promising to end what he described as the state’s monopolistic control and godfatherism. His sudden reentry into the APC raises questions about his political convictions and the sincerity of his movement, leaving many of his supporters feeling betrayed.

According to the Foundation for Investigative Journalism, between February 2024 and February 2025, Nigeria recorded approximately 300 political defections, with the ruling party being the primary beneficiary. Just this past Tuesday, two PDP members of the House of Representatives, Husseini Jallo (Kaduna) and Adamu Tanko (Niger), defected to the APC while retaining their seats.

Section 68 (1) (g) of the 1999 Constitution states that a lawmaker must vacate their seat if they defect to another party before the expiration of their tenure unless the defection results from a division within their original party. However, enforcement has been weak. The Supreme Court, for instance, dismissed Fubara’s attempt to invoke this provision, citing a lack of concrete evidence.

This trend raises fundamental questions about political allegiance and the ethical compass guiding Nigeria’s political class. Defections disrupt governance, erode public trust, and undermine institutional stability. Elected officials switch parties without regard for the electorate that voted for them based on specific party manifestos and ideological promises. When politicians defect to ruling parties, it often signals opportunism rather than genuine ideological shifts, creating a cycle of instability that affects policy implementation and governance continuity.

During the 2022 constitutional amendment process, the National Assembly voted on 68 bills seeking to amend the constitution. Among the 25 bills that were dead on arrival was a proposal seeking to terminate the tenure of elected officials who defect to other parties. The failure to enact strict anti-defection laws underscores lawmakers’ reluctance to address a pervasive issue that ultimately serves their interests. Without stringent legal frameworks, politicians continue to switch allegiances with impunity, weakening democratic processes and institutional credibility.

Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s recent defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) further illustrates the opportunistic nature of Nigerian politics. Having been denied a ministerial appointment, El-Rufai’s move appears to be a strategic repositioning for the next election cycle rather than a principled ideological shift. Such instances expose how political affiliations in Nigeria are dictated by personal ambition rather than steadfast principles, leaving voters disillusioned.

Similarly, Nigerian politicians frequently prioritise politicking over governance. A case in point is the recent rebasing of the economy, which, while necessary, has sparked controversy. Inflation, which peaked at 34.8% in December 2024, declined to 27.4% by February 2025 following the rebasing exercise. However, economic analysts argue that the revised figures do not accurately reflect the lived realities of most Nigerians. Furthermore, Nigeria slipped to fourth place among Africa’s largest economies, trailing South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria. The timing of the rebasing suggests an attempt to project a more favourable economic outlook, even as fundamental challenges such as inflation, high living costs, and unemployment remain unaddressed.

This pattern of political expediency reflects a broader trend in Nigerian politics, where politicians readily switch allegiances or make permutations just to serve their personal interests. The adage remains true in Nigerian politics: there are no permanent friends or enemies—only permanent interests.

To mitigate the negative impact of political defections, Nigeria must enforce stringent legal measures requiring defecting elected officials to vacate their seats and seek a fresh mandate. The constitutional provisions on defections must be upheld to deter opportunistic cross-carpeting. Furthermore, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should be empowered to monitor defections more effectively and impose appropriate sanctions. Strengthening internal party democracy is also essential to address grievances that often drive defections. Beyond legal reforms, voter education must be prioritised to ensure that defections become a key electoral issue, fostering greater accountability within the political system.

While politics is inherently dynamic, Nigeria’s rampant and unprincipled defections highlight a culture of self-preservation over public service. If left unchecked, this practice will continue to weaken governance and democratic development, leaving Nigerians disillusioned with the electoral process. Service to the public must count for something.

Oladipupo is an analyst at SBM Intelligence