Demographic lockdown: How Nigeria can keep its economy running while battling COVID-19

BY EMEKA OBI

Earlier this week, I had a conversation with a friend of mine and I relayed to him that my attention is presently on a project I hope to tidy up before the lockdown is relaxed next week. From nowhere he snorted “Obi, do you think this lockdown would end soon?” “Don’t you know that it will probably be till the end of May before the lockdown is relaxed.” I’m not sure what exactly I should refer this to, an epiphany or an eureka moment, but I was startled.

This week makes it the 5th since the government locked down Lagos state, FCT and Ogun State and it doesn’t look like it would be relaxed anytime soon. Other States have also declared a lockdown within this time frame. Five weeks of nearly zero productivity or income on the part of government, companies, and SMEs. Five weeks of living off savings in a country where anyone hardly saves. Many live with just the assurance that they will make the money to feed so far the sun rises, just as instructed in the holy book, they do not worry for tomorrow will bring it on food.

I have never been a fan of lockdown and was one of the earliest set of people who opposed it. Understanding the economic situation of Nigeria I knew a lockdown would have a more dangerous effect than the Corona virus itself. Reading Professor Charles Soludo’s article yesterday brought about bits of nostalgia. It reinforced what we have always said repeatedly; there’s no one fit all solution to a problem and solutions are derived not through intuition but understanding of data.

With many states closed for business due to the lockdown, there’s very little to be made from IGR except whatever they can get through PAYE. The FG is not doing any better with revenue. With oil prices trading below production costs and over 50 oil vessels stranded in the sea in search of buyers, the FG will soon be on it knees. Lately, the FG has been utilizing helicopter money to fund the NCDC, Lagos state and pay beneficiaries of the Conditional Cash Transfer drawn from the social register. How long this method would last without leading to a runaway inflation rate would soon be known.

The ECA is literarily obliterated. The SWF can’t survive two months of budget stabilization support and the Fx reserves would barely be sufficient for investors who demand to pull out their funds. To put it mildly, we are at a cul de sac. And just like professor Soludo wrote we need to get our economy running and salvage whatever we can. We do not have the luxury of savings to rely on as other countries are doing at the moment. We do not have the data or funds to do a proper palliative. We have to fight this war utilizing a guerrilla warfare strategy.

Just like I told a friend last week, the pandemic is now a game of probability. Each country is testing different approaches with the aim of finding an alternative with a probability a bit better than the existing plan. It must not be sufficient, it might not solve all the problems, but it gives a chance for us to breathe. As a fact, the lockdown has failed everywhere in Nigeria. Economic survival fuelled by corrupt security agents had made the lockdown a mere wishful thinking. You can still get to any part of Nigeria whenever you want, you would even be driven by a security agent. In Lagos, despite the lockdown, Vehicular traffic can be seen everywhere. Also, social distancing is a privilege of the rich who can be holed up in their mansion with food and fuel stocked up to last a year. For the many poor people, that luxury doesn’t exist.

As alternatives to total lockdown I suggest *Demographic Easing.* The reproduction number, or if you like, infection rate of the Corona virus is put at 1.5%-3.5% and the fatality rate is put at 3.4% of the reported cases. According to China National Health Commission (NHC) 80% of those who died were over the age of 60 years and 75% of that number had preexisting medical conditions. The New York City Health statistics gives a clearer picture of recorded deaths in New York City. The percentage of death from the ages of 0-17 years was 0.04%, 18-44 years were 4.5% with over 60% of the deaths recorded in patients with preexisting health conditions. The age range of 45-64 years had a fatality rate of 23.1% and over 60% of the deaths were also recorded in patients with underlying health issues. Major preexisting health conditions were cardiovascular with 13.2%, diabetes, 9.2%, chronic respiratory disease, 8.0%, hypertension, 8.4% and cancer with 7.0%.

The fatality of the disease is more potent on carriers from 60 years and above and on those who have an existing medical conditions. I propose that the government reopens the economy but this time, anyone who is 55 years and above and also anyone with preexisting health condition that’s susceptible to the Corona virus should be exempted and forced to stay at home.

Considering that 42% of the Nigerian population is aged between 0-14 years, 20% are between 15-24 years, 30% are between 25-54years and 55-64 years are 4% of the total population, this would be an approach that Nigeria can maneuver. It would also permit the government to channel limited funds to the few who would be forced to stay at home, instead of the present approach of attempting to throw very little to everyone.

Luckily, the most Nigerians affected so far with corona virus are age 31-40 years and according to the health minister the fatality rate is mostly within carriers from 50 years and above. Probably, this is why our fatality rate is low and recovery rate high. Whatever method we utilize, I admit that people would still die but what are the probabilities, remember it’s now a game of probability? If you say this is a kind of herd immunity you wouldn’t be wrong. Someone would be wondering that with the kind of family living we do in Nigeria, wouldn’t it be possible for the young who go out to infect the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions who are at home? By following laid down precautionary measures like washing of hands, changing clothes before coming into the house, using of facemasks and sanitizers, the probability can be reduced. Sweden is presently trying out similar methods.

Enforcement would lie with the employee, trade union, religious leaders and market union. More so, I believe that this method will give us access to more funds to spend on targeted population. If we can adequately provide for their needs they would have no need to disregard the order. Accessing age records wouldn’t be a difficult thing too.

I also expect interstate boundaries to still be fully shut, while the movement of goods of any kind should continue unhindered. States should take the responsibility of fumigating goods and their drivers coming into the state. I also expect religious houses and schools to still remain closed. It’s a probability game and we do not need to test the depth of the river with both feet.

Considering that the Corona virus is still an Urban problem in Nigeria, the FG still have the opportunity to rake up food production at the rural areas and set up cottage industries within the rural areas to process produce coming out of the rural areas. This way, the farmers wouldn’t lose income by their inability to move their produce to the urban areas in time. It will reduce food inflation and create jobs within the rural communities where we have the most vulnerable people; shielding them from the economic effects of the pandemic. I must admit that this pandemic has taught me to reexamine the concept of trade liberalization, comparative advantage, food security and food sustainability. I know believe that every country must develop its economy in such a way that it can be made to become an autarky state when the need arises.

Economically, like I have argued on my Facebook posts, Nigeria need to ensure that a large chunk of its Corona virus spending is spent in Nigeria. There’s no need for us to buy facemasks and PPEs outside of Nigeria , when there are so many who can manufacture it here. If there are companies who can do the ventilator in Nigeria, we ought to purchase from them. If our research institutes are capable of producing the reagents for testing, let’s deal. We would keep more jobs this way and ensure that money is spent in our economy to keep it running. No need to patronize China that brought this on us all.

For every time a pandemic occurred, the world has always responded by shutting down it borders; with globalization and trade liberalization, this option has outlived it purpose, new methods are urgently required.

Obi writes from Awka, Anambra state