Di claims wey Peter Obi make for di NESG economic dialogue correct?

Peter Obi, forma govnor of Anambra state, and presidential flagbearer of di Labour Party (LP) make plenti claim wen im bin dey tok about im economic plan for di informate program of presidential candidates, wey di Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) organise.

TheCable cari eye check some of im claim, and na wetin we find be dis.

CLAIM 1: “Nigeria manufacturing sector dey contribute less dan 10 percent to di GDP.” 

FINAL TOK: Na true. 

According to di Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), di third quarter report for 2022 show sey na only 8.59 percent di manufacturing sector contribute give GDP. 

Dis nomba small pass di 8.96 percent wey dem bin record for di Q3 2021, and di 8.65 percent for di quarter before am – Q2 2022.

CLAIM 2: “Agriculture dey contribute almost 26 percent to Nigeria GDP.” 

FINAL TOK: No bi true.

Agriculture contribute 29.67 percent to di overall kontri GDP for Q3 2022, small pass di 29.94 percent wey e take eye see for Q3 2021.

To folo di NBS informate for Q3 2022,  na 94.34 percent di non-oil sector contribute kpatakpata give di GDP. Di oil sector contribute only 5.66 percent, as e fall from di 7.49 percent wey e record for Q3 2021, and 6.33 percent for di second quarter of 2022.

CLAIM 3: “Unemployment for Kenya dey less than 10 percent.”

FINAL TOK: Na true. 

According to Statista and Macrotrends, di most recent informate wey comot for 2021, show sey di unemployment rate for Kenya na 5.74 percent. 

Di economic definition of unemployment na di pipu wey fit wok but no get wok, dat is dem dey ground and dem dey find wok.

For 2020, na 5.73 percent, 5.01 percent for 2019 and 4.25 percent for 2018.

Between 2003 and 2016, informate of di unemployment for di east African kontri show sey e bin always dey below 3 percent.

CLAIM 4: “All di whole land for Netherlands reach 33,000 sq km.”

FINAL TOK: Na true.

Di World Bank tok sey all di land wey dey Netherlands na 33, 670km sq.

CLAIM 5: “For 2021, di Netherlands bin export agriculture products wey reach $120 billion.”

FINAL TOK: No bi true. Di total 2021 export for Netherlands na $130.7 billion, no bi $120 billion. 

For di Netherlands, dem dey divide di agricultural sector export into goods wey consign agriculture and goods wey bi agriculture gan gan.

Goods wey consign agricultural na goods wey pesin no fit chop but dem dey make for di agricultural sector either for di kontri or abroad. Agricultural exports na dose ones wey directly consign goods wey dem produce – processed or unprocessed – for di Netherlands.

In line with 2021 informate, di total amount of agricultural export reach  €122 billion  ($130.7 billion). Di export of agricultural products wey pesin fit chop bin tanda at €106 billion, while di ones wey pesin no fit chop bin reach €16 billion.

CLAIM 6: “I know sey di biggest kontri, wey bi America today dey owe almost 90 percent to GDP, second one na China wey dey owe over 60 percent to GDP, Japan own na 230 percent. Even Singapore wey we dey call evri day na 130 percent dem dey owe GDP. Di problem wey we get for dis kontri bi sey di moni wey we dey boro dey disappear.”

FINAL TOK: No bi true. Even though TheCable check see sey di four kontris wey Obi mention di owe, all di amount wey im call no correct.

Investopedia define debt-to-GDP as di amount wey di compare di public moni wey kontri di owe with im gross domestic product (GDP). Dem dey get dis amount wen dem compare wetin kontri dey owe wit wetin e dey produce. E fit also show di amount of years wey di kontri fit pay back wetin e dey owe if na wetin di GDP wan face wella bi dat.

United States

Di debt-to-GDP ratio for di United States as at 2022 bin tanda at 124 percent, no bi 90 percent as Obi claim.

According to Fiscal Data, one online platform wey dey analyse di US financial data, America debt to GDP bin reach 124 percent going by di 2022 informate.

For 2013, the US pass di 100 percent debt-to-GDP ratio wen debt and GDP bin tanda around $16.7 trillion. 

China

Wen 2022 finish, China debt-to-GDP ratio bin reach 76.9 percent, no bi 60 percent as Obi tok.

Japan

For September 2022, di moni wey Japan bin dey owe debt bin reach 263.9 percent of im GDP, no bi 230 percent as Obi tok. Di 2022 figure bin increase from di 259.4 percent wey e take eye see for 2020 during COVID.

Singapore

To folo wetin di International Monetary Fund (IMF) tok, di official Singapore debt-to-GDP ratio na 141.1 percent, no bi 130 percent as Obi claim.

CLAIM 7: “Di moni wey Nigeria di owe na 77trn.”

FINAL TOK: No bi true. Di moni wey Nigeria di currently owe na N44.06 trillion no bi N77 trillion. 

Di most recent report wey show di moni wey Nigeria di owe comot for September 2022 by di Debt Management Office (DMO).

Di report tok sey Nigeria public debt stock, dat is all di moni wey state govments dey owe –  including di federal capital territory (FCT) – plus di federal govment na N44.06 trillion.

Di moni wey di kontri boro from organisations and other bodies wey dey inside di nation reach N26.92 trillion, while di moni wey im boro from outside kontri reach N17.14 trillion.

But Patience Oniha, di director-general of DMO, bin tok sey di plan wey di federal govment get to turn di the loans – ways and means – from di central bank go increase di moni wey di kontri dey owe to about N77 trillion.

Dis mean sey di next govment go collect gbese wey fit reach N77  trillion for di time wey President Buhari go comot for office in May.

CLAIM 8: “Di total amount of tins wey Nigeria export for 2021 reach N18.9trn.”

FINAL TOK: Na true.

Di export informate wey Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) release show sey for 2021, di total export wey comot from di kontri tanda at $46.69 billion, na increase from di $35.9 billion wey dem bin record for 2020. 

TheCable still analyse NBS informate on foreign trade wey show sey Nigeria export bin dey valued at N18.9 trillion for 2021, na $47.3 billion bi dat if we dey use di average official exchange rate of N399.6 for 2021.

Busola Aro folo join hand for dis tori.