El-Rufai’s defection: Political chess move or genuine frustration?

On Monday, former Kaduna state governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, dropped a political bombshell by announcing his defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP). I wasn’t shocked. Anyone following the political undercurrents knew this divorce was just a matter of time.

My thoughts on this? It’s both a calculated strategy and genuine frustration. El-Rufai’s press release cited the party’s deviation from its founding principles, but there’s always more beneath the surface in Nigerian politics.

To be sure, el-Rufai was no ordinary APC member. As one of the architects who built the APC foundation in 2013, his exit speaks volumes. “Developments in the last two years confirm that there is no desire on the part of those who currently control and run the APC to acknowledge, much less address, the unhealthy situation of the party,” he stated. Those are strong words from someone who once wielded significant influence in the party.

Trust our politicians to always have perfect timing. This defection comes as political realignments begin ahead of 2027. Is El-Rufai simply positioning himself early, or is this truly about principles? Probably both.

Come to think of it, el-Rufai’s Arise News interview should have been a clear signal to anyone paying attention. His increasingly vocal criticism of APC policies and President Bola Tinubu’s administration wasn’t just random venting – it was groundwork for this move.

Some critics argue that el-Rufai is merely bitter about missing out on a ministerial appointment. I think it’s beyond that. The former governor likely sees the writing on the wall – the APC of 2023-2025 isn’t the APC he helped create in 2013. His complaint that the party “has castrated its organs and treated its membership with contempt” suggests deeper institutional concerns.

El-Rufai, like FCT minister Nyesom Wike, is one of those politicians who divides opinion sharply. You either love him or hate him. But even his harshest critics acknowledge his competence. As FCT minister, he transformed Abuja with an efficiency that subsequent ministers couldn’t match (though Wike is certainly making his own mark now).

Let’s be honest – if el-Rufai had been appointed power minister instead of being sidelined, we might be seeing different results in that critical sector. The man delivers results, controversial as his methods may sometimes be.

The reaction to his defection has been predictably split along political lines. Ironically, most founding APC members are lamenting his exit while the johnny-come-latelys to the party are celebrating. It speaks volumes about the internal power shifts within the ruling party.

As 2027 approaches, expect more defections and realignments similar to what birthed the APC in 2015. But will this be enough to unseat Tinubu? I don’t think so. Not unless the opposition parties get their act together, put aside personal ambitions, and rally behind one strong candidate. If they scatter their votes like they did in 2023, the outcome will be the same – another Tinubu victory.

President Tinubu isn’t called a political chess master for nothing. He’s arguably one of Nigeria’s smartest politicians, with street credibility to match. Anyone who thinks he’s sitting idly by while these political realignments unfold doesn’t understand the man. He definitely has an ace up his sleeve.

I also think the opposition is showing their hand too early. In politics, timing is everything. By making their moves now, they’re giving Tinubu ample time to monitor and check their activities before 2027 even comes into clear view.

Will El-Rufai’s exit be felt by the APC? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain – the SDP just gained a smart politician. El-Rufai isn’t just any politician; he’s a calculating tactician with a track record of winning against all odds.

The real question is whether the SDP can harness el-Rufai’s energy and network to build a formidable opposition. Or will this just be another case of musical chairs in Nigeria’s political space? My bet is on the latter unless something dramatically changes in opposition politics.

What about el-Rufai’s followers in Kaduna and across the north? Will they follow him to his new political home or remain with the ruling party? These are the questions that will determine whether this defection is just one man’s exit or the beginning of a significant political realignment.

Politicians often underestimate the intelligence of Nigerian voters.

The electorate is increasingly sophisticated, looking beyond party affiliations to performance records. El-Rufai’s performance as governor gives him some credibility, but is it enough to sway voters nationally?

The SDP, once a fringe party, now finds itself thrust into the spotlight. Do they have the infrastructure to capitalise on el-Rufai’s star power? Building a national party takes more than just big names – it requires grassroots organisation, funding, and a clear ideological position. The SDP currently lacks all three.

History teaches us that defections rarely fundamentally change Nigeria’s political landscape. Remember when Atiku Abubakar left the PDP for APC and then went back to PDP? Or when Aminu Tambuwal switched from APC to PDP? The musical chairs continued, but the power structures remained largely unchanged.

What makes el-Rufai’s move potentially different is his reputation as a reformer and implementer. During his tenure as FCT minister and later as Kaduna governor, he pushed through tough reforms that other politicians wouldn’t touch. That track record could attract technocrats and professionals who are tired of politics as usual.

But el-Rufai also comes with significant baggage. His controversial policies in Kaduna, particularly regarding religious institutions and traditional authorities, made him many enemies. His sometimes combative style and perceived arrogance alienated potential allies. Can he reinvent himself as a unifying opposition figure? That’s a tall order.

The timing of this defection also raises questions. Why leave now, nearly two years before the next election cycle heats up? Perhaps el-Rufai sees an opportunity in the current economic challenges facing Nigerians. With inflation running high and purchasing power at historic lows, the ruling APC is vulnerable. By positioning himself early,el-Rufai gets a head start in crafting an alternative economic vision.

For President Bola Tinubu, this defection presents both a challenge and an opportunity. It’s a challenge because el-Rufai knows the APC’s inner workings and weaknesses. It’s an opportunity because Tinubu can now consolidate his control over the party without dissenting forces.

The wildcards in this political equation are the other opposition figures. Will Peter Obi’s Labour Party find common ground with el-Rufai’s SDP? Will Atiku Abubakar’s PDP see an opportunity for an alliance? Nigerian opposition has historically failed due to ego clashes and an inability to compromise. I see little evidence that 2027 will be different.

For now, this defection adds spice to our political discourse. But without a broader coalition and clearer alternative vision for Nigeria, it risks becoming just another headline that fades as quickly as it appeared.

One thing’s for certain – Nigerian politics never lacks drama. El-Rufai’s defection is just the opening act in what promises to be an intriguing political season ahead of 2027. The audience – Nigeria’s long-suffering citizens – can only hope that for once, this political theater produces something of substance rather than just another entertaining but ultimately meaningless show.