Fitch: Tinubu will become president, but there will be social instability

Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research says Bola Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), will win the 2023 presidential election.

In a report, the firm, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating organisation, however, said Tinubu’s victory would spur social instability and protests because of his party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.

“We maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC,” the report stated.

“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.

“Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between northern and southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims.

“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.”

The firm said Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), would not win despite some polls predicting that he would emerge president.

Citing a 2020 World Bank report, Fitch said only 36 percent of Nigerians use the internet where there is huge traction to Obi.

“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online,” it reads.

“Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.”