Five key takeaways from Nigeria’s February inflation report

Nigeria’s inflation rate slowed to 23.18 percent in February 2025, down from 24.48 percent in January, marking the first decline in months, according to the latest consumer price index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The report has elicited reactions from Nigerians who took to X (formerly Twitter) to express scepticism, arguing that the figures do not reflect the reality of the rising food and living costs.

The decline follows the recent rebasing of inflation rate calculations, which changed the reference period for measuring price movements.

With the new base year set at January 2024, year-on-year comparisons will now reflect a different pricing structure, making historical inflation trends appear lower.

Despite this statistical adjustment, the reality for many Nigerians remains unchanged: food and transport costs are reportedly still high, straining household budgets.

Here are five key insights from the latest inflation report.

INFLATION DECLINED, BUT PRICE PRESSURES PERSIST

For the first time in months, Nigeria’s inflation rate recorded a decline, dropping to 23.18 percent in February 2025, compared to 24.48 percent in January.

“In February 2025, the headline inflation rate eased to 23.18% relative to the January 2025 headline inflation rate of 24.48%,” the NBS report stated.

“Looking at the movement, the February 2025 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.30% compared to the January 2025 headline inflation rate.”

However, the decline is believed to be partly influenced by the shift in the base year for inflation calculations — a statistical adjustment that changes how inflation is measured.

This means that while inflation appears to be slowing, Nigerians may not experience significant relief in their daily spending.

FOOD INFLATION SURGED MONTH-ON-MONTH

Food inflation, which has been a major driver of rising living costs, stood at 23.51 percent in February 2025. This is significantly lower than the 37.92 percent recorded in February 2024.

The report attributes the decline mainly to the change in base-year calculations, rather than a significant drop in actual food prices.

Month-on-month food prices still rose by 1.67 percent compared to January, showing that cost pressures remain on essential food items.

“Compared to the month of January 2025, there was an observed decline in the average prices of food items like yam tubers, potatoes, Soya beans, Flour of maize/cornmeal, Cassava, Bambara beans (Dried), etc,” the report stated.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2025 over the previous twelve-month average was 34.74%, which was 4.67% points higher compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2024 (30.07%).”

URBAN INFLATION STILL OUTPACED RURAL INFLATION

The NBS report shows that Nigerians experience inflation differently, depending on where they live. The urban inflation rate was 25.15 percent in February 2025, significantly higher than the 19.89 percent recorded in rural areas.

The report said inflation in Nigeria’s urban regions declined from 33.66 percent in the same month last year.

“The corresponding twelve-month average for the urban inflation rate was 32.22% in February 2025, which was 4.28% points higher than the 27.93% reported in February 2024,” NBS noted.

“The rural inflation rate in February 2025 was 19.89% on a year-on-year basis. This was 10.09% lower than the 29.99% recorded in February 2024.”

SOKOTO, EDO RESIDENTS PAID MORE FOR FOOD

Analysis of the NBS report indicated that inflation rates varied across states, reflecting the differences in economic activity, household spending patterns, and regional price pressures.

Edo (33.59 percent), Enugu (30.72 percent), and Sokoto (30.19 percent) recorded the highest inflation rates.

In contrast, Kaduna (15.45 percent), Akwa Ibom (15.53 percent), and Plateau (15.74 percent) experienced the slowest price increases.

The report noted that food inflation remained severe in Sokoto, which posted the highest rate at 38.34 percent; while Adamawa recorded the lowest at 12.18 percent.

“In February 2025, food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Sokoto (38.34%), Edo (35.08%), Nasarawa (33.53%), while Adamawa (12.18%), Ondo (13.66%), and Oyo (15.55%) recorded the slowest rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis,” the report reads.

“On a month-on-month basis, however, February 2025 food inflation was highest in Sokoto (18.83%), Nasarawa (15.32%), and Kogi (11.65%) while Ondo (-9.81%), Kaduna (-8.91%), and Oyo (-6.42%) recorded declines in food inflation on a month-on-month basis.”

CORE INFLATION REMAINED HIGH AT 23.01 PERCENT

The core inflation metric often tracks consumer price changes, excluding volatile items like food and energy.

Unlike headline inflation, which covers all goods and services, core inflation focuses on more stable prices, making it a better measure of long-term inflation trends.

According to the report, core inflation stood at 23.01 percent in February 2025, slightly lower than the 25.13 percent recorded a year earlier.

However, on a month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.52 percent, according to the bureau.

“The average twelve-month annual inflation rate for core inflation was 25.33%, which was 3.60% points higher than the 21.72% recorded in February 2024,” the report revealed.

This suggests that while headline inflation may be easing, the cost of essential services — healthcare, education, and transportation — remained high, putting pressure on household income.