Global unemployment to rise by 2m in 2024, ILO predicts

The International Labour Organisation (ILO) says two million people are expected to look for jobs in 2024, thereby increasing global unemployment.

ILO said this in its latest report on Wednesday, titled ‘World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2024’.

The organisation also said growing inequality and stagnant productivity is a cause for concern on the economic horizon.

According to the United Nations (UN) labour agency, just over five percent of the world’s workforce is without a job.

This, ILO said, is a better situation than before the pandemic but it will not last, as an extra two million people are expected to be looking for a job over the next 12 months.

In addition to the uncertain jobs market outlook, ILO said the majority of the world’s richest nations had seen living standards eroded because of inflation, which is now in decline in many major economies.

“In 2024 an extra two million workers are expected to be looking for jobs, raising the global unemployment rate from 5.1 per cent in 2023 to 5.2 per cent,” ILO said.

“Disposable incomes have declined in the majority of G20 countries and, generally, the erosion of living standards resulting from inflation is, “unlikely to be compensated quickly”

The report also found that people who have re-entered the labour market post-pandemic tend not to be working the same number of hours as before while the number of sick days taken has increased significantly.

“Income inequality has also widened, the trends show the erosion of real disposable income, bodes ill for aggregate demand and a more sustained economic recovery,” the report said.

“Despite various policy initiatives to tackle the underground economy, the number of people employed informally is expected to remain static, accounting for around 58 per cent of the global workforce in 2024.

“Residual symptoms and health problems for those 20 per cent or so who suffered ‘long COVID’ persist for many and have impacted productivity.”

ILO said women’s participation in the job market had bounced back quickly but a notable gender gap persisted, especially in emerging and developing nations.

The labour agency said youth unemployment rates continued to present a challenge, adding that despite technological advancement and increased investment, productivity growth had continued to slow.

Commenting on the outlook, Gilbert Houngbo, ILO director-general, said while the 2023 unemployment rate stuck at 4.5 percent for wealthier countries, it was 5.7 percent in low-income countries.

He warned that “falling living standards and weak productivity combined with persistent inflation create the conditions for greater inequality and undermine efforts to achieve social justice”.

“And without greater social justice we will never have a sustainable recovery.”

He said the workforce challenges overall should be tackled effectively and fast, adding that it poses a threat to both individual livelihoods and businesses.