Here’s what Nigeria’s economy doesn’t need in the new year

Despite all the rhetoric about diversification, Nigeria’s economy was and is still buoyed by oil money. So, if the planned production cut by OPEC and non- OPEC states comes to fruition, oil prices would remain above its current price of $55, and Nigeria will get more money.

All things being equal, if oil continues with its rally this year, the current economic recession would be history by the third quarter. And the naira would become stronger.

But there is a caveat to all these assumptions: oil production shouldn’t be interrupted. The relative peace experienced in the Niger Delta has to continue.

But this relative peace seems to be threatened.

On New Year’s Day, in what looked like a coordinated response, MEND and PANDEF — an umbrella group for traditional rulers and leaders of thought in the Niger Delta – accused President Buhari of insincerity. These groups believe that the thinking in the presidency cannot lead anywhere good.

PANDEF, for instance, believes that by budgeting a whopping 29 billion naira on fighting militants in the Delta, the President has shown that he believes in brute force and has ignored the main factors causing militancy in the Delta. And of course the group doubts the President’s commitment to dialogue, which was proposed in its November meeting with the President.

PANDEF – which says it has the mandate of the militants to dialogue on its behalf – says it is surprised that the government has not set up its own dialogue team, after they met with the President in November.

The group also presented a litany of demands in that meeting with the President. Surprisingly, nothing has been heard about these demands from the President.

Obviously, these demands include those from militants and politicians. There is no doubt about PANDEF’s influence on the militants: the group argues that the present ceasefire in the Niger Delta is as a result of its intervention in order to give room for dialogue. PANDEF also argues that the president has refused to build on this relative ceasefire, instead pretends not to know that attacks on oil installations have been reduced tremendously.

Meanwhile, MEND – an organization that received global attention for its attacks on oil installations — has vowed not to have anything to do with Buhari’s administration any longer. They accused Buhari of reneging on concessions that had been reached on releasing some of its members, while passing their vote of no confidence on this administration.

The government should take the bull by the horns. By arguing that conflicting demands from multiple interest groups in the Delta is the main hindrance to dialogue looks like a delay tactic. The signal is this: the government is contemplating other strategies while delaying dialogue, and the recent budget on fighting the militants says it all. (This might not necessarily be true.)

Such delay will only worsen our recession, especially when everyone is hoping that the rising oil prices will take Nigeria out of recession. And of course, give us room to diversify.

The president himself has argued that we need oil money to diversify our economy. Yes, you need money to make money.

We stand to lose, and of course, help other oil producing countries who aren’t interested in production cuts, if militants resume hostility. Anything that takes Nigeria from 2.2 million bpd to 900,000 bpd will increase the misery of its already stretched citizenry and currency. We do not need any kind of vandalism this year.

The government should come out with its own negotiation team as soon as possible. Every group should be brought to the table. In a negotiation, no party gets every of its demands. Thus, government should be clear on what it can and cannot do.

And when there is sincerity, everyone would surely feel it. Even the militants and their sponsors will feel it.