How Nigeria can benefit from $11 trillion mobile industry

The mobile industry will post nearly $11 trillion in economic value by 2030 or 8.4 percent of GDP. Last year, 2024, mobile technology and services generated 5.8 percent of global GDP, which is equivalent to $6.5 trillion of economic value. This was part of the highlights of the annual Mobile Economy Report 2025 launched by the GSMA at the Mobile World Congress (MWC25) which was held in Barcelona last week.

Much of this will be driven by countries around the world increasingly benefiting from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by the increased take-up of mobile services and digital technologies, including 5G, IOT and AI, the report informed.

Mats Granryd, Director General of the GSMA sketched the scope of the industry when he said, “Our industry connects nearly six billion people, and powers economies worldwide. And, at MWC, over 50 percent of attendees come from outside the Mobile ecosystem, a clear signal that industries recognise the vast opportunities our networks create. This week will shine a light on those opportunities – from 5G to AI and many more – and their role in helping us to unlock new markets, drive innovation and shape the future of the mobile digital economy.”

No doubt the market is huge and there is so much money to be made from the industry and ancillary sectors by those who are bold and creative enough to invest their energy, resources and expertise in the components parts of the industry. Those who gathered in Barcelona last week would be interested in how much comes to their organisation, their sector and. above all, their country.

That is the question every sane person should ask and, without doubt, it won’t be a question for Nigeria but a matter of humility to admit that our country at this time really needs a heavy dose of fund injection from that mind-blowing projection. But we don’t have to wave a magic wand to attract it but a lot of hard work based on the gaps that are noticeable in the research details. So, what is going to be Nigeria’s share of this money?

Let’s take a look at the report. 5G enjoyed a lot of attention at the Mobile World Congress. The report also focussed attention on 5G as it periscopes trends that will affect the industry well into the future, and also marks it out as the technology that will dominate, being able to inspire other technologies to instigate growth. According to the report, 58 percent of the world’s population were using mobile internet at the end of 2024, representing 4.7 billion users – a number expected to rise to 5.5 billion users (65%) by 2030.

It also says that 5G connections worldwide surpassed two billion at the end of 2024 and will account for over half (57%) of total mobile connections in 2030, overtaking 4G adoption by 2028.

Here is another interesting observation which interpretation may translate to wealth for the industry and even nations. “With 2G and 3G networks accounting for less than 20 percent of mobile connectivity worldwide, legacy networks are being phased out in many regions. By the end of November 2024, a total of 152 networks had been shut down and another 131 networks were planned to be shut down by 2030. Asia Pacific and Europe lead the way, accounting for around 70 percent of networks sunsets to date. Network sunsets enable more efficient spectrum use while also reducing energy consumption,” the report stated.

But while legacy technologies are facing deserved sunset in the developed world, they remain very strong in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria. For instance, 2G still controls 41.63 percent of network buildout in Nigeria while 3G has .8.60 per cent, and 4G, 47.23 percent. 5G has less than 3 percent.

The GSMA sees the world moving into the future with 5G, observing that Sub-Saharan Africa will contribute to strong Mobile connectivity growth before 2030. Between 2024 and 2030, operators will spend a whopping $1.5 trillion on their mobile networks. Nigerian operators will do part of this spending to expand services and aggressively pursue 5G deployment.

“This trend will not be uniform across all markets; in emerging 5G markets, CapEx will continue to accelerate over the forecast period on 5G network rollout. Overall, 92 percent of operators’ CapEx between 2023 and 2030 will be spent on 5G network deployment,” the report stated.

There are three 5G operators in Nigeria with a fourth license waiting to be issued at the right price. Rollout efforts of the three operators – MTN, Mafab and Airtel, could only yield less than 3 percent coverage. But the GSMA report gives Sub-Saharan Africa an interesting 2024 Technology mix which presents the following picture: 2G – 11 percent; 3G – 49 percent; 4G – 38 percent; and 5G – 3 percent.

However, by 2030, the picture will be progressively different: 2G – 2 percent; 3G – 28 percent; 4G – 52 percent; and 5G – 17 percent. It is not just a different picture but an entirely different game in terms of network deployment, service rollout and other industry support services that will be provided. Within the period, 2024 to 2030, smartphones will grow from 54 percent to 81 percent.

This is why the report notes that despite increasing mobile saturation in developed regions, there remains room for growth in many large, underpenetrated markets in developing regions. For example, India and Sub-Saharan Africa will account for around half of new mobile subscribers globally over 2022 to 2030.

Although the GSMA annual Mobile Economy Report 2025 paints Sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, as a developing market for the mobile industry, a little analysis shows that countries in the region can make so much money only if they can achieve the projections that look very humble. For instance, 17 percent of the 5G market in Sub-Saharan Africa is pegged at 247 million lines.

It means that the regulator must create the right ecosystem to encourage operators’ activities that can directly and indirectly affect the market to create needed returns to both industry and the public, which includes the government.

For instance, in 2024, the mobile sector made a substantial contribution to the funding of the public sector with around $600 billion raised through taxes on the sector. The industry also directly created 24 million jobs while supporting another 16 million, bringing it to a total of 40 million. It is the responsibility of the regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), to ensure that Nigerian operators are spruced up to enable them. contribute their share of these global projections.

Through proper regulation and other interventions, there is much benefit that can accrue to the nation from the mobile industry. The report also harped on creative regulatory processes. My humble suggestion is for the regulator to encourage operators to offer good services, make more money and be able to support the government through tax remittances and other channels. The regulator must work hard to give Nigeria a decent share of that $30 trillion by 2030.