I pity the Nigerian youth

Gone are the days you got a brand new Volkswagen immediately after graduating from a University in Nigeria. I really fear that in 50 years we might even call the period we are in now the good old days. Never mind our bad things are now. If you think I am going to talk about the End Time, then, I am sorry, I am going to disappoint you.

Unemployment is not only a Nigerian problem, it is everywhere. It is in Europe, America and even in Asia. Politicians are worried about it, but I think parents are more worried. Our very own Chief Olusegun Obasanjo referred to the level of youth unemployment in Nigeria as a time bomb. If God was to perform the kind of miracles he is known for and gives Chief Obasanjo another 70 years, I do not know what adjective he will use in describing unemployment 70 years from today. In this article, I will show you that unemployment is likely to get worse in Nigeria, if new ideas are not brought into our present policy making. Though, I think the present Government is trying its best and last Government also tried its best. However, I think other intellectuals, outside Government, should help Government because new ideas are badly needed in creating jobs. Professor Chukwuma Soludo rightly alluded to this fact when he said, in one his interviews with Premium Times, that creating quality jobs would task the creativity of policy makers to the limit. The erudite scholar also advised that Nigeria would need a Job Manifesto.

It amazes me that Nigerian youths spend so much time on issues they should not be bothered with. They spend time discussing about power tussles between our political elites. They talk about those court cases. What if those cases are finally settled amicably between parties involved with some ridiculous plea bargains? I think our youths should spend their energies insisting on structural reforms in the CBN and in office of the NSA (i.e. insisting on the abolition of security votes at all levels of Government). These reforms would prevent the kind of scandals that are being reported in future. Our youths are not asking the right political questions.  There are some news items that should have caused the youths to raise alarm, but they probably didn’t see these news. In this article, I will highlight some of these news items while arguing that unemployment might get worse.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released a terrifying report saying that for the third quarter of 2015 no new jobs were created in the Oil and Gas subsector (did I hear you say it is because of the falling oil price) of the formal sector. The Bureau also estimated that the Electronics and Electrical subsector created 37 jobs while the Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products subsector created 80 jobs. Please note that the jobs we are talking about here are supposed to be created in an economy with over 170 million people. If we analyze these numbers, it means no young petroleum engineering graduate, no matter how brilliant, got a job. It also means that a negligible number of electrical and electronics engineering graduates got a job during period of the survey. Even if they got, they were probably underemployed. They might be working in the inefficient public sector or doing some menial jobs. Some might have reluctantly enrolled for low quality postgraduate courses just to buy time. Note that about 2 million graduates are produced every year in Nigeria. This means for the youths who didn’t get jobs immediately after graduating, especially in the fields they would like to work, another 2 million graduates will join them the next year. This makes their chances of getting jobs slimmer.

Did you see how the House of Representatives handled the motion on checking population explosion in Nigeria? The motion was introduced by Hon Babatunde Kolawole. In serious climes, this kind of debate would have been one of the most important debates – it could even make or mar a politician. But, not in Nigeria. An article published by the BBC predicts that Nigeria’s population would be about 400 million in 2050. Ideally, a large population is supposed to be a good thing because it means more people will be available to work in factories. But, in our case the key question to ask is what is our GDP growth rate compared to the rate of our population growth. If you can answer that question, then you will probably know whether that your lovely 3 –year old son or daughter that looks like you has a future in Nigeria.

Recently, Jobberman released a survey that 45 percent of Nigerian graduates were unemployed. Do you think that wasn’t a national calamity? Sadly, there was no debate about it. Probably, people knew the reason so they didn’t bother to debate about it or ask fundamental questions.

Interestingly these days, the buzz word is entrepreneurship. Medical, Law and Engineering students now have new courses in their syllabus in the University. These courses are supposed to give them some entrepreneurial training. Truly, no Government can employ all its people and the private sector can’t either. So, some people should think of opening up their own businesses. This sounds perfect! But, wait a minute. Don’t you think that not everyone can be an entrepreneur? I have seen very smart people that will never be able to do business – this is a topic for another day. Have you done any research to know how many small businesses can survive 3 years after they were founded?  There have been a lot of Government initiatives on helping young people own businesses, but it is still going to be difficult. My advice is that Government should concentrate more on infrastructure so that these young people can help themselves with the good roads and electrical power.

However, for youths who are entrepreneurial, I normal give them the two advices – learn a skill and travel. I will let you know why I give these advices. A young man who studied mechanical engineering and decides to start a mechanic workshop might find himself underemployed. He might be competing with road side mechanics.  But, if he travels and sees how mechanic workshops are packaged abroad, he would get ideas on how to take his business to next level. He might decide to employ pretty ladies in the customer care section of his workshop, which would look like a shopping mall.

With the kind of thinking I have seen so far in the previous and present Governments, unemployment might still increase. However, this is also a topic for another day. A report, published at the just concluded World Economic Forum in Davos, shows that the Fourth Revolution will cause more job losses. What is the Fourth revolution? It is automation and dister-mediation. Do you know that banking of the future might not require more than 4 people in a branch? Do you know you can pay checks, bills, withdraw money, check balance, post money, adjust your account details and do many other things in ATMs abroad? Think about that.

My calculations tell me that Government should be looking at an economy that would create about 4.5 million new jobs yearly. This represents 2 million new graduates produced yearly and another 2.5 million youths that might not be graduates. Have you heard of these numbers yet in our polity, even if you have heard, have you heard of any strong strategy to achieve these numbers? This is why I say unemployment is likely to get worse.

Dr Nwankwo lives in Benin City