Impact of climate change on agriculture and the looming food crisis in Africa

BY DARE AKOGUN

As the world grapples with the escalating impacts of climate change, Africa remains one of the most vulnerable continents. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events are not just theoretical risks; they are already harsh realities for millions of people.

These changes are threatening key sectors like agriculture, which employs over 60% of Africa’s population and forms the backbone of many economies.

The effects are being felt acutely in a country like Nigeria, where erratic rainfall and the rising cost of food are stark indicators of a deeper, and more systemic crisis that could lead to widespread food shortages by 2025.

In August 2024, Nigeria experienced highly irregular rainfall patterns, with some regions receiving heavy downpours that led to flooding, while others suffered from prolonged drought.

This inconsistency has disrupted traditional farming practices, making it difficult for farmers to predict planting and harvesting seasons. The result has been a significant decline in crop yields, particularly in staple foods such as maize, rice, and sorghum, among others, which are vital to the nation’s food security.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has raised concerns about the “dated rains” a phenomenon where rains arrive later than expected, disrupting the agricultural calendar.

Farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture have been the hardest hit, with many reporting that their crops either failed to mature or were washed away by sudden floods.

This has not only jeopardised food supply but also threatened the economic stability of Nigeria, a country already grappling with a high level of poverty.

RISING COST OF FOOD AND POTENTIAL 2025 FOOD CRISIS

The impact of these climatic changes is most evident in the rising cost of food across Nigeria. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), food inflation reached a staggering 27.2% in August 2024, driven by the scarcity of agricultural products.

As a result, many households are struggling to afford basic necessities, leading to a significant increase in food insecurity.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that if current trends continue, Nigeria and indeed much of Africa could face severe food shortages by 2025.

The World Bank estimates that over 346 million people across Africa are already suffering from food shortages, with the number expected to rise sharply as climate impacts intensify.

A CONTINENTAL PROBLEM WITH GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

Nigeria’s struggles are a microcosm of a broader continental issue. Across Africa, climate variability is disrupting agricultural production, leading to food shortages and economic instability.

The FAO reports that climate change could reduce agricultural productivity by up to 40% in some parts of Africa by 2050, a dire prediction for a continent where agriculture is not only a critical source of food but also a major employer of labour.

This looming crisis has global implications. As Africa struggles to feed its growing population, the pressure on global food supply will increase, potentially leading to higher food prices and increased competition for resources.

Moreover, the social and economic instability caused by food shortages could drive mass migration and exacerbate existing conflicts, further destabilizing the region.

SOLUTIONS: WHAT CAN BE DONE?

Addressing this crisis requires a multi-faceted approach. African governments must prioritise climate-resilient agricultural practices.

This includes investing in irrigation infrastructure, promoting drought-resistant crops, and providing farmers with the knowledge and tools they need to adapt to changing conditions.

Additionally, there is a need for robust early warning systems that can provide accurate climate data to help farmers make informed decisions.

Furthermore, the upcoming COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, which will focus on climate finance, presents an opportunity for developed nations to step up their support for Africa.

Climate finance is critical to helping vulnerable countries adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Developed nations must fulfil their financial commitments to the Green Climate Fund, ensuring that Africa receives the resources it needs to build resilience against climate shocks.

In Nigeria, specific policy actions could include expanding the country’s agricultural insurance schemes to cover more smallholder farmers, thereby reducing their vulnerability to climate-induced losses.

There is also a pressing need to improve rural infrastructure, such as roads and storage facilities, to reduce post-harvest losses and ensure that food can be transported efficiently from farms to markets.

THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY:

The international community, particularly developed nations, have a crucial role to play. Beyond providing financial assistance, there is a need for technology transfer to help African countries develop and implement climate-smart agricultural practices.

Additionally, global partnerships aimed at improving food security in Africa should be strengthened, with a focus on building local capacities and fostering innovation.

As the world prepares for another round of climate negotiations at COP29, the focus must be on climate finance and ensuring that resources are allocated effectively to support the most vulnerable.

Africa, despite contributing the least to global greenhouse gas emissions, is bearing the brunt of climate change impacts.

It is imperative that the international community acts swiftly and decisively to prevent a food crisis that could have catastrophic consequences for the continent and beyond.

Africa’s battle against climate change is not just about mitigating future risks; it is about addressing the current, tangible impacts that are already threatening the livelihoods of millions.

The erratic rainfall patterns and rising food costs in Nigeria are a clear warning of the challenges ahead. Without immediate action, the continent could face an unprecedented food crisis by 2025.

It is a crisis that can be averted, but only if African governments and the international community work together to build a resilient, and sustainable future for the continent.

Dare Akogun is an Ilorin-based climate and energy transition journalist. He can be reached via [email protected]