IN DETAIL: With 1,000 COVID deaths, Nigeria better than S’Africa but worse than Kenya

Nigeria has reached a sour landmark of 1,000 COVID-19 deaths after five more persons died of the disease on Sunday.

According to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), a total of 1,002 persons have now died of the infection out of the 52,227 that have so far contracted it.

Nigeria reached 1,000 COVID-19 deaths 22 weeks after it recorded its first death from the disease — that was on March 23.

So, how does the country rate in Africa?

INTERROGATING THE DEATHS

The World Health Organisation (WHO) says there are two ways to assess the number of people who have died of COVID-19. First, through the infection fatality ratio (IFR), which estimates the proportion of deaths among all infected individuals — that is, including those who were never diagnosed.

The second means is by checking the case fatality ratio (CFR), which estimates the proportion of deaths among clinically confirmed cases.

Although the NCDC said Nigeria has so far recorded about 52,200 cases of the coronavirus, the total number of infections will apparently be more.

Not long ago, TheCable reported how people showing symptoms were being denied testing in Kogi state.

In Kano, where close to 1,000 people were reported to have died of unknown causes, Osagie Ehanire, minister of health had said “50 to 60 (percent) may have been triggered by COVID-19 in the face of pre-existing illness.”

Moreover, the number of persons that have been tested for the virus in Nigeria is relatively low when compared to those of other African countries.

With about 380,000 people so far tested for the virus, Nigeria has tested more people than only Egypt among the five worst-hit African countries in the pandemic. 

South Africa, the most affected country in the content, has tested 3.5 million people, out of which 607,045 were positive with 12,987 dead.

NIGERIA VS OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES

With available data, the best approach to measure the death rate from COVID-19 would only be through the case fatality ratio, which deals with the proportion of patients that have died out of those that tested positive for the virus.

This is still not a tell-it-all measure though; a low case fatality rate could mean that widespread testing detects many less serious or mild cases who have a high chance of surviving in the first place.

With 1,002 deaths, Nigeria has a case fatality rate of 1.9 percent, ranking sixth among the ten countries with the highest number of infections in Africa, according to data from Worldometers.

This means that Nigeria is better than only four of these countries, namely South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria and Egypt — but worse than Kenya and Ghana.

While Egypt has the highest case fatality rate of 5.4 percent with 5,262 deaths, Ghana has the least at 0.5 percent with 261 deaths.

Other worst-hit countries in the continent include Ivory Coast, 0.6 percent; Ethiopia and Morocco — both at 1.6 percent each; Kenya, 1.7 percent; South Africa, 2.1 percent; Cameroon, 2.2 percent; and Algeria, 3.4 percent.

WHAT ABOUT DEATH RATES PER CAPITA?

Another way to assess the death rates would be looking at the rates per capita as a proportion of each country’s population.

Although Nigeria has recorded 1,002 coronavirus deaths, the country rates above virtually all the most affected African countries considering the number of deaths per one million population – that is, how many people have died of the virus in each one million population?

Out of the worst-hit countries, Ivory Coast has the least death to one million population ratio at four, followed by Nigeria which has recorded five deaths per one million people

Of the top ten, only Ivory Coast has the least number of fatalities per one million population at four, while Nigeria comes second at five.

South Africa, with a population of 59 million people, has the worst death rates per capita as it has lost 220 people per one million population to the disease.

Data as of Monday morning were obtained from Worldometers.