INSIGHT: Does Nigeria have what it takes to host COP32?

Nigeria has declared its bid to host the 32nd edition of the United Nations Conference of Parties (COP32) to be held in 2027. If approved, this will mark the first of such high-level global climate events in the country.

COP, an annual meeting where all 198 member parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) gather to negotiate and implement global efforts to limit temperature rise and support vulnerable countries, has become critical as the central forum for global policy — holding nations accountable to their commitments and ensuring that environmental action remains a top priority for governments.

The event, which began in 1995 in Berlin (COP1), has so far produced global policies including the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2016 at COP21, where nations pledged to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial level, and work towards a low-carbon future.

AFRICA’S TURN TO HOST ANOTHER COP

As the light beams on Africa to host COP in 2027, after Egypt convened the event in 2022, Nigeria has become the first country to announce its bid to host the global climate event.

While the continent has previously hosted the conference in Morocco in 2001 (COP7), Kenya in 2006 (COP12), and South Africa in 2011 (COP17), the decision of the next host country will be unanimously agreed on by other African nations, tentatively in Brazil at COP30 in November.

During his visit to Lagos, Simon Stiell, the UNFCCC executive secretary, welcomed Nigeria’s decision to host COP32, adding that there is a process for the selection of a host country, as there would be other bidders.

For any country bidding to host COP, it is expected that it meets various logistical, infrastructural, financial, and political demands before it is deemed fit to play host to thousands of delegates, including heads of state, diplomats, activists, scientists, and media personnel, during the conference.

Although Nigeria has previously hosted large international events, including the World Economic Forum on Africa, which was held in Abuja in 2014, and the All-African Games, which it hosted twice, in 1973 and 2003. Hosting COP is a different ball game, as it requires more resources than one can imagine.

Tokunbo Wahab, the Lagos state commissioner for environment and water resources, during a press briefing, on Thursday, said Lagos is ready to host COP37 once it is ceded to Nigeria. He added that the state “has all it takes” to convene the event.

While Lagos is eager to host COP37, its existing urban challenges would likely make it difficult to manage such large-scale event effectively.

With a population exceeding 13 million people, Lagos already faces critical issues including housing deficit, severe traffic congestion, and the strain of an overpopulated urban environment. These issues would likely create logistical problems when hosting a major international conference.

The housing deficit in Lagos would make accommodating thousands of delegates and visitors a daunting task as there would be high demand for residential spaces. Additionally, the city’s notorious traffic congestion would make it difficult for delegates and attendees to move efficiently between venues, potentially affecting the smooth running of the conference.

However, Abuja may offer a better space for the conference due to its more centralised location, which makes it easily accessible for participants from different regions of the country. The city is known for its modern infrastructure, including state-of-the-art convention centers, hotels, and transportation networks, ensuring a smooth and efficient experience for attendees.

Abuja’s relatively calm environment, with less congestion compared to other major cities like Lagos, provides a more conducive atmosphere for focused discussions and networking.

Also, given the complex security issues in Nigeria and the large-scale size of COPs — like COP29 which had 66,778 on-site delegates — a comprehensive, well-coordinated security strategy must be implemented to ensure the safety of all participants at the event.

NIGERIA’S EFFORT TOWARDS CLIMATE ACTION

Nigeria’s position on climate change has evolved significantly, with increasing recognition of the need for climate action. In 2017, the country ratified the Paris Agreement, signaling its commitment to global efforts in addressing climate change.

The agreement’s primary goal is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.

Nigeria has also made commitments through its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outlining the country’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Nigeria’s first NDC was submitted in 2015, which aimed for a 20 percent unconditional reduction in emissions by 2030 and a 45 percent reduction — subject to international support.

While Nigeria is yet to submit its third generation NDC. In 2021, the country updated its climate plans, which included a more ambitious target of reducing emissions by 47 percent by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual scenario — reflecting a shift toward more serious and systematic climate action.

With the 2021 NDC, Nigeria aims to reach net zero by 2030. The country is set to achieve this through its  Climate Change Act, which provides for the adoption of National Climate Change Action Plans, implemented by the National Council on Climate Change (NCC).

The country has also prioritised renewable energy development, with increasing investments in CNG-powered vehicles, and critical minerals, recognising the potential for energy diversification in the country.

On December  3, Heineken Lokpobiri, Nigeria’s minister of state for petroleum resources (oil), said the country will “never stop the production of fossil fuel”.

Lokpobiri went on to say that developed countries like the UK “contributed to 4.8 percent of global emissions in 2023, which is higher than the entire OPEC countries put together”. He urged the petroleum industry to “increase its production”.

Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa and the 12th largest in the world. Its economy is heavily reliant on oil and gas, with more than 65 percent of its budgetary revenue coming from the sector — which makes transitioning to a low-carbon economy challenging.

While the oil sector remains a significant source of emissions, the country faces the difficulty of balancing economic growth with reducing emissions.

WHAT’S IN FOR NIGERIA?

Nigeria hosting COP would come with both immediate economic gains and long-term benefits, including job creation, increased tourism, foreign investment, and enhanced sustainable development.

In an X post on Thursday, the ministry of environment said hosting the UN COP will provide several strategic benefits to Nigeria, including emphasising priority areas in climate action at both continental and national levels.

Nigeria is faced with existential climate issues ranging from flooding, extreme temperatures, deforestation, and desertification. Hence, hosting COP32 in the country will put Nigeria at the center of global discussions on climate change, allowing it to highlight its specific climate challenges and opportunities.

As one of the largest economies in Africa, Nigeria can use the COP32 conference to strengthen the continent’s collective voice in international climate negotiations— pushing for financing mechanisms, technology transfer, and capacity-building efforts to allow for just transition.

It could catalyse Nigeria’s transition to a more diversified, resilient, and environmentally conscious economy, while also contributing to its fight against climate change.

Hosting COP32 could also boost the country’s international standing and attract investment into green technologies, renewable energy, and sustainable development projects.