Jonathan, to run or not to run

BY ADAMS ABONU

For former President Goodluck Jonathan, this political season embellished with high-wired intrigues in its full swing should evoke reminisces of days not so long ago. For a man who has stood on the ballot twice, and as incumbent president on each occasion, he is adept with the drama that comes with the season and not new to those who genuinely seek the interest of the majority of Nigerians or cheerleaders whose game in trade is to seek their narrow, often parochial interests. This is why when some sizeable ‘protesters’ recently besieged his office in Abuja to deliver a rather awkward ultimatum to him to declare his intention to contest in the 2023 presidential election, the erstwhile leader’s response portends further suspense in the days to come.

Since that last August visit at the home of the former president by Yobe state governor, Mai Mala Buni, doubling as acting chairman of APC, who came in company of several other governors, speculations have been rife as to the possibility of Jonathan putting his hat into the ring. His body language and deliberate quietness over this rumours capable of over-heating the polity (apologies to a Nigerian politician) seems to be a subtle admittance of this possibility.

From all indications, erstwhile President Jonathan, who lost his second term bid to APC’s Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, would not fritter his accumulating goodwill on the alters of 2023 elections. He could give a world press conference in the coming days to appreciate the interest of his teeming supporters nationwide in his capacities to proffer solutions to mounting national challenges and consolidate his statesmanly appeal.

In another thought, if Jonathan succumbs to the pressure of ambition and decides to put his name on the records of the 2023 election, the eventual outcome of such great political risk would be of academic interest to political pundits for a long time to come. If he contests and wins his way back to Aso Rock, it would be another ample opportunity to correct not just the malaise being orchestrated by the incumbent regime, but also affording him another chance to redeem his image and reassure of his ability to be a decisive president.

If he decides to run in this race and his strides do not ferry him to the finish line, he would be creating a bizarre precedence and thereby handling his mis-handlers another punchline to further argue that Jonathan is not a man massively preferred by Nigerians as his hailers would want the rest of us to believe. The odds seem to be stacked against a successful comeback, though many odd things are possible in the Nigerian political scheme of things.

First of which is the odd of a platform that would accept to concede their structure to Jonathan’s bid with its attendant risks. It’s within the realms of reasonable speculations that some elements within the ranks of the APC is seeking to use the adequate goodwill the former president had garnered since leaving office to win the election expected to be close call. The co-travellers of this path, who are mostly from the northern divide, reason that if elected, President Jonathan is constitutionally entitled to a single term of four years and so presidential power could conveniently return back to the north afterwards. Admittedly, this sentiment is potent enough to spread like wildfire within the towering electoral masses of the region and deliver a Jonathan comeback. How the pushers of this line of thoughts would defy the aspiration of contenders of the APC presidential flags could defeat common political sense.

As at the last count, Chris Ngige, a serving minister, had joined a race that already has his colleague and former Rivers governor Rotimi Amaechi; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; and self-acclaimed national leader of APC, Ahmed Bola Tinubu, slugging it out against one and another. All of those mentioned here, and others yet to gather enough to purchase the rather outrageous price of the party’s presidential nomination form are traversing the length and breadth of the country in a jostle for delegates and would not easily relegate their aspiration for an outsider as Jonathan. For someone like Asiwaju Tinubu whose ‘’lifelong ambition’’ would be jeopardised by a Jonathan ticket, the former governor of Lagos state would rather the worse happens than allow such outright denial.

Any possibility of the Abdullahi Adamu-led national working commitee of APC waiving the odds against Jonathan’s purchase of the presidential nomination form is grossly unlikely considering the antecedence and past posturing of the national chairman. Senator Adamu is a man given to protocols with a knack to ensuring that things are done in order. It remains to be seen how he would allow such manipulation under his watch.

Assuming that Jonathan is able to cross these daunting hurdles before him and becomes the flag-bearer of the APC in 2023, he would have to work hard to convince an increasingly wary electorate that those who demonised him to win elections in 2015 are now a better alternative to his erstwhile Peoples Democratic Party. For example, he would have to tell Nigerians that he now agrees with President Buhari that the Jonathan years were those of the locust that looted our commonwealth and bequeathed a nation mired in intractable crises.

If PDP sees enough reasons to field a viable candidate, the task of defeating a ticket bearing Jonathan’s name could be a done deal if efficient propaganda is whipped and delivered effectively.

Since Jonathan left office upon his defeat at the 2015 polls, his personality ratings has been on a steady rise owing largely to the disappointing outing of the incumbent dispensation. The economic woes impoverishing countrymen, the agonising insecurity terrorising a beleaguered citizenry and the widespread apprehension in the land have combined to make many to crave an earlier time under Jonathan when things were relatively better. The former president cannot afford to make a joke of his rising global appeal by gambling on another presidential run in Nigeria.

Wisdom, many say, is profitable to direction.

Abonu is a public affairs consultant and writes from Asokoro, Abuja.