The Economist insists Atiku will win presidential election

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Africa is insisting that Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will win the February 16 presidential election.

On Friday, EIU Africa said the margin of victory is getting narrower as the election approaches, but Atiku and his political party will win the historic election.

“#NigeriaDecides2019 : Less than 2 weeks before #Nigeria‘s presidential election. Abubakar has floated idea of corruption amnesty. It is arguably an impolitic time for such a delicate proposal,” EIU Africa tweeted.

“Abubakar is hard-pressed to convince voters that he is a clean politician, having been on the receiving end of numerous graft allegations in the past.

“We retain out forecast for #Abubakar to win, but expected margin of victory is narrowing as the poll approaches.”

Abubakar is hard-pressed to convince voters that he is a clean politician, having been on the receiving end of numerous graft allegations in the past. We retain out forecast for #Abubakar to win, but expected margin of victory is narrowing as the poll approaches.

— The EIU Africa team (@TheEIU_Africa) February 1, 2019

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Previous Prediction

In 2015, the magazine also predicted victory for Muhammadu Buhari over then-incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, stating that Buhari was “the least awful choice,” which would be chosen “with a heavy heart”.

“Voters have ample cause to send Mr Jonathan packing. In a country where power has often changed through the barrel of a gun, the opposition All Progressives Congress has a real chance of winning through the ballot box,” The Economist said in 2015.

The research unit of London-based The Economist Magazine had said in 2018 that the PDP will win the 2019 election.

“Abubakar’s pledge is to reinvigorate the economy with pro-market reforms. Both candidates are from the northern Nigeria, where Buhari’s support base lies, presaging a fierce contest there,” EIU had said.

“With the vote likely to be split in the North, Abubakar will find it easier to garner support from the country’s south, which has traditionally been a safe haven for the PDP.

“This gives Abubakar an edge, as does popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr. Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria.”

THE ECONOMIST VERSUS THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

There is a slight difference between The Economist, the newspaper, and The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research and analysis division of The Economist Group. But both companies are owned by The Economist Group.

“We are outspoken in our views. Unlike our sister company, The Economist newspaper, much of our work is bespoke for clients and remains confidential. But we share the same fierce passion for independence and integrity,” EIU explains the difference.

The latest prediction for the February election is from the outspoken EIU.

RULING APC SEES PREDICTION AS FAKE NEWS

Lai Mohammed, minister for information and culture, had said The Economist’s — EIU –prediction was nothing but fake news.

“We have all read that the intelligence unit of The Economist said the PDP will defeat the ruling APC in 2019,” he had said.

“We have also read that the international financial institution HSBC said Nigeria’s economic development will be stunted if President Buhari gets a second term

“Let me state clearly that these reports are based on fake premises and, therefore, qualify as fake news. It is a psychological warfare by those who have been badly hit by our policies.”