Musings from APC presidential primary

The long-awaited presidential primary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has come and gone with few surprises. After the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) held theirs with former Atiku Abubakar emerging as the presidential candidate, the APC knew they just had to get it right and get a candidate that can match Atiku’s stature and network.

After two intense days, former Lagos state governor, Bola Tinubu, emerged as the candidate of the APC. I was not surprised Tinubu won the election. It was expected. In fact, if you conduct the APC presidential primary 20 times, Tinubu will win 21 times. The truth is; politically, he stands head and shoulders above all the other aspirants. That was one of the major reasons his camp was shouting themselves hoarse that the party must conduct an open presidential primary. They knew there was no way in hell that the party will choose him as a consensus candidate, so their best bet was to go for a contest.

We also have seen a list of winners and losers in the election. When it comes to speech and oratory, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo and Senator Rochas Okorocha would have won the election with their inspiring speeches. One of the aspirants that I can’t remember his name right now used his time to be campaigning for a third term for President Muhammadu Buhari. He spent all the time clowning and forget to tell delegates why they should vote for him. How did he even get the N100m to buy the form?

Although he got zero votes I was impressed with Pastor Tunde Bakare’s speech. He refused to step down and like we say in local parlance “we die here”.

Also, say anything you want about Governor Yahaya Bello or David Umahi, they proved that they were in charge of their states.

Former Rivers state governor and immediate past minister of transportation, Rotimi Ameachi, proved that he is the man to beat in future elections. Many were impressed with his showing.

There have been several commentaries about the election so far but one that stood out was the failed coup by the national chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Adamu, announcing Senate President Ahmed Lawan as the consensus candidate. I don’t what he was thinking at that moment but according to many commentators, there was no way Adamu would have announced Lawan as the consensus candidate without the input and backing of President Buhari. I think I believe that line of argument.

But the question I keep asking myself is how do Adamu and the presidency believe or ever imagine that the senate president will win the presidential election? With all due respect to the senate president, I don’t think he stands a chance against Atiku in the north or even on the national stage. If Lawan had been the APC candidate, I believe by now Atiku would have finished drafting his inauguration speech. It would have been a no contest. It would have been like a match-up between Real Madrid and Kano Pillars.

Love or hate him, you have to admit that Tinubu is the most powerful politician in Nigeria today. Tinubu defeated a sitting vice-president, a sitting senate president, and three current governors. He also defeated the consensus candidate of the party which means he defeated the number one, two, and three in the country. He not only defeated them, but he also spanked them silly. It was arguably one of the most one-sided presidential primaries in recent history.

He was one of the most influential politicians that gave President Buhari victory in 2015 and now the kingmaker wants to be king. He has proved his mettle in recent years and you have to doff your hat to him.

Now we are set for an interesting presidential contest and I believe it will be the closest in our history. Anyone who emerges the winner will do so with the slimmest of margins. Interesting days ahead.