The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says the recent depreciation of the naira would result in cheaper prices of non-oil exports and a boost for the sector.
According to the bureau, “although, the decline in crude oil prices may weigh on the value of exports, the recent depreciation of the local currency is expected to bode well for non- oil exports.
“While exports are expected to be positive in the near term, the impact of declining crude oil prices is likely to result in a decline in the value of oil exports over the forecasted period. The recent depreciation of the Nigerian Naira is expected to result in cheaper prices of non-oil exports, resulting in a boost.”
In the review which covers three years – 2015 to 2017 – the NBS also predicted a rise in the total merchandise trade from N25.17tn, estimated in December 2014, to N27.6tn by December 2015 rising by N2.43tn representing 9.66 per cent growth.
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The bureau however added that inflation could rise to 8.8 percent in 2015 but assured that it will maintain an average of 8.13 per cent over the three years debunking speculations of increased pressures on prices due to general elections.
According to the bureau, “in the previous four elections of 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011, only one election year actually had an increase in the inflation index.
“Lagged effects may, however, exist as the headline index was higher the year after election in all cases. Nevertheless, upward pressures on inflation rates are likely to be caused by the recent depreciation of the naira”.
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Nigeria is scheduled to hold its general elections in March 2015.
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