As the Niger Delta Avengers messes up Nigeria’s budget, what can we do?

It would be foolhardy to expect President Muhammadu Buhari’s current ‘economic team’ to make any difference if the Niger Delta Avengers continues causing havoc. In the same breath, it would be wishful thinking to expect Raji Fashola to light up Nigeria with the current militancy in the Delta.

A very senior executive in the oil and gas industry told me that, despite the substantial recovery seen in global oil prices, job losses in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, in the last 6 weeks, have been massive – IOCs have had to suspend operations, postpone projects or even cancel some of them, as a result of the latest militancy.

Considering how sections of the economy are interconnected, job losses impact other sectors. Job losses result in lesser spending, and when people don’t spend money, companies who supply goods and services, would experience reduced sales. Consequently, their ability to pay taxes, which government believes would fund the budget, would be reduced.

The massive reduction in oil income is already affecting the budget. In fact, there is a high probability that this year’s budget would be the worst performing budget in Nigeria, in recent history.

The Avengers have caused numerous havoc in the last two months. They have blown up oil facilities – the latest being the Aiteo/Agip facilities in Bayelsa. They even have a twitter handle, with which they issue numerous threats. These threats impact global oil prices, considering that the oil market strives on speculations.

Enough of bad news. What is the way forward?

Government Ekpemupolo, also known as Tompolo and a former influential militant, has dissociated himself from the group and has queried the wisdom in their action. The Avengers have even threatened him at some point. Obviously, some influential people in Abuja do not believe the ex-militant. Tompolo, himself, is in hiding; he has been declared wanted by the EFCC.

Tompolo claims he isn’t looking for contracts anymore, and that those looking for security contracts are behind these recent attacks. He even issued a statement asking people to find out from the current Minister of State for Petroleum if he had ever asked for any contract. He says some of his rivals had been asking for contracts, and would stop at nothing to justify why these contracts should be given them.

Some good analysis coming from Tompolo. Only that it is coming from someone who many might not know whether to believe or not. After the raid on his community, last week, some traditional leaders in his community reiterated some of what the ex-militant had been saying.

A committee has been set up by the Delta State government, a state which has been affected by this surge in militancy. The committee is headed by the Deputy Governor, Kinsley Otuaro, Tompolo’s cousin. Otuaro doesn’t believe Tompolo is responsible for this renewed militancy. Many believe the Deputy Governor.  He has also condemned the attack.

Meanwhile, the federal government has been spiting fire, it wants to deal with these Avengers guys – it even claims it has arrested some members of the gang – we have heard these kind of news before. Some, including a minister in government, believe force won’t be the answer. They might be right.

Obviously, if you analyze the actions of these Avengers guys, you would observe that they might not have benefited from the last government’s largesse. Prominent ex-militants, who were committed to government’s amnesty programme and benefitted in terms of contracts, have distanced themselves from the Avengers.

Thus, when somebody suggested that the Avengers might not have sprang up if Tompolo was still in charge of the Creeks, it made some sense to me. He would have suppressed them, in order to remain the ‘don’.

If you have read any of Mario Puzo’s novels, you would understand how gangs work. Strong gangs tell weaker gangs where not to trespass.

Tompolo might be of great help in this case. But, he has a case in court. The jury is not even divided on whether he should have gotten the kind of contracts he got in the last administration – most people in the present government see such as an absurdity. On top of those contracts, he has been accused of massive corruption. In fact, the mention of his name irritates many in the current government.

Suppose he gets 5 billion naira yearly from this government as security fees, and these new militants are suppressed, government would be the winner. And government would then not have to tell us that oil prices are still very low, because it has substantially recovered, compared to last February’s prices.

But, there is a problem. Some educated people don’t see why an ex-militant should earn so much- it even annoys me. Also, a man who has a case to answer in court cannot be seen advising government. This position is correct and I agree with people who share this view.

But, there is a possibility of this happening: the more some ex-militants who could have suppressed these Avengers guys stay away, maybe in hiding, their influence in the Delta would decrease. The Avengers would, obviously, go from strength to strength, if this happens, they would become unmanageable.

Now, let me summarize my thesis. If the military option doesn’t work, then dialogue might be another option.  And if that fails, jungle justice using ex-militants, who are still powerful might be another option. Government needs to act fast.