Niger coup: The role of Nigeria, France and Russia

Following the coup that took place in the Republic of Niger last week which resulted in the overthrow of the civilian government of President Mohammed Bazoum, a video was circulating on the internet of an interview the president granted wherein he talked about drastically curtailing French involvement in Niger.

There was yet another video where demonstrating Nigeriens could be seen holding the Russian flag and calling for comprehensive severance of ties with France and replacing them with the Russians.

With the latest developments in Niger, out of the four countries bordering on Nigeria; Benin, Niger, Chad and Cameroon, two Niger and Chad are now under military rule. We should also factor in the possibility that should President Paul Biya of Cameroon go to meet his maker, the country will more than likely face a leadership succession crisis. And in the likely event of that happening, the Cameroon military will almost certainly take over the reins of government in that country.

Indeed from antecedents in Francophone countries, France the former colonial power will give the nod to the Cameroon military to prepare to take over if it becomes clear that President Biya is close to breathing his last.

Nigeria will then be flanked by three military governments in Niger, Chad and Cameroon all of whom are French-speaking. Indeed with the addition of the Benin Republic to our western border, Nigeria is completely bordered landward by French-speaking countries. It becomes somewhat alarming when we consider that the French Sahelian belt stretching from Guinea right up to the Central African Republic is in the hands of military governments.

Ordinarily, these developments are matters we should take in our stride because the French presence within our vicinity has been with us since colonial times. Although the French rued the fact that Britain took the territories that made up what became Nigeria ahead of them in the race for colonial territories, it has been a fact that they have come to learn to live with even though they have been implementing a policy of hemming in Nigeria in the West African sub-region.

But what should concern us is that beneath the present state of angst gripping the French-speaking West and Central African states is a geo-strategic struggle for influence going on between France and Russia.
The French-speaking African countries are chafing at years of French dominance and control of their countries and want the latter off their backs. They are simply tired of years of France’s control over their political, economic and social lives.

This is what the Russians are capitalising on; offering military and economic aid to these countries and in the process aiming to secure a strategic toehold in the region. As the largest economy and the most populous country in the region, Nigeria should get involved in what is going on for favourable outcomes.

Firstly, West Africa is our near abroad, an area with which we share centuries of economic and cultural links predating the coming of any extra continental power. Both France and Russia not being native to the region are mere interlopers whose interests can only be superficial and opportunistic. Indeed the principal reason behind the current turmoil in the French-speaking West African countries is the oppressive and suffocating dominance of France over the years.

But if France is now the equivalent of an elephant in the West African shop, let us not be naïve in thinking that the Russians will be anything but. The Russians may mean well but whatever assistance they may render the French-speaking countries will likely not go far to transform the much-required economic transformation of these countries after years of French subjection. Indeed beyond military support and protection provided through the irregular Wagner military group, it is not likely that Russia would provide any fundamental economic package stretching into the future for these countries.

This is where Nigeria comes in. Unlike both powers, Nigeria is not an interloper in the region. France has been in West Africa for exploitative reasons and Russia aims to be in the region in order to gain a strategic foothold in its proxy wars with the West in preparation for a probable spillover of the current war in Ukraine into a global confrontation.

The prevailing situation points to the fact that the long oppressive dominance of France in the region is nearing its end. This development is akin to the period leading up to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
As the reality of developments is compelling the French to leave, Nigeria should quickly step into the void so as to avoid the region being turned into a theatre of rivalry and competition by outside powers.

As president of Nigeria and current chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), President Tinubu should have as a top foreign policy priority a fundamental review of Nigeria’s West Africa policy in reflection of these developments.

If any country should lead in the transformation of West Africa meaningfully it is Nigeria for several reasons; history and shared experiences predating the advent of colonialism and after, deep economic linkages over the centuries, shared linguistic, and cultural values and linkages.

Additionally, Nigeria’s future economic development lies in integrating its economy with West Africa transforming the region into one massive economic, political and cultural hub. It is imperative that Nigeria must not shy from pursuing this.

Gadu can be reached via [email protected] or 08035355706 (texts only)