Why Nigeria should never break up

By Baba Grumpy

Someone I consider a good friend recently accused me of an obsession with Biafra, as I appear to take pleasure in ridiculing and pouring scorn on the idea. I was forced to defend myself and also undertake some self-examination to be absolutely certain about my motives.

I am from the South West of Nigeria, born after the Nigerian Civil war ended, my parents, immediate family did not lose life, limbs or property to the Nigerian Civil war although my mum claims that her aspiration to attend university was dashed because of the war.

In the events leading up to the war, my extended family lost a very senior member to the counter coup of 1966 and his immediate family suffered neglect for a long time. I witnessed the despair of his extended family and the challenges his immediate family experienced because their dad sacrificed his life for what he thought was a noble cause.

As a youngster through my ‘bookish’ Uncle who had a fascination for history especially the 2nd World War, I learnt about the destruction war can bring to ordinary peoples’ lives. You will not wish the tragedy ordinary Germans experienced on your worst enemies. Some might be tempted to believe they deserve it because they probably bought into the Hitler craze but what about the people of Great Britain who even tried to accommodate some of Hitler’s territorial ambitions in order to prevent war? Did they deserve the loss of civilian lives too? The trauma suffered by young and old?

If you think World War II was such a long time ago, what about the full-blown war in the Balkans in the 90s. The carnage in Liberia & Sierra Leone ended only 14 / 15 years ago. I went to school with some of the Liberians that were driven away from their home because of the inordinate lust for power by some of their misguided leaders. It is not the equivalent of schooling abroad by choice I tell you.

I wonder why Nigerians think we are immune from having the same problems as the Liberians and ‘Saros’. Like the Rwandans, Ugandans, Congolese or even Ivorians.

We used to think some things could never happen in Nigeria. I suspect many believed that we learnt our lesson with the Civil War and we had our ‘never again’ moment. But it doesn’t appear so. The events after June 12 1993 confronted us again with how fragile our fault lines were and still are. Many moved themselves and / or their family out of Lagos to prevent real and imagined attacks. Many vowed never to come back. I understand that until the Americans apparently intervened in 1998, there was a real fear that the fall of Nigeria could plunge the whole of West Africa possibly Africa into chaos.

Can you imagine the 15 million inhabitants of Lagos descending on Benin (population c10 million), Togo (c6 million) or Ghana (c25 million)? The social infrastructure in those places will collapse talk less of maybe the displacement of maybe 20% of the Nigerian Population of c200 million people. The continent of Africa and the proverbial world will hear ‘wen’. Yet some irresponsible people stoke hatred and bang on about breaking up the country.

The ‘Breaker Uppers’ of Nigeria are playing with the scenario in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7ZNbcLyrKw)  if they ever get their evil wish.

Unfortunately the sad thing is the human race never learns and that is why many Europeans now believe that Hitler wasn’t all that bad and the reason why many Nigerians believe that breaking up the country will be a good thing.

Anybody who believes the break up of Nigeria can be achieved without bloodshed is misguided and deluded in my opinion. The only way you can break Nigeria up is via bloodshed. The same was one of the regions attempted in 1966. There is no provision for regional self-determination in the Nigerian constitution. There is no legal way to break up this country.

So why can’t the constitution be amended to allow the right for regional self-determination? I will gladly direct this question towards the people asking for the break up of the country.

Where is your plan to achieve this self-determination by legal and constitutional means? Do you understand what is required for the amendment of the constitution? Are a majority of the lawmakers, local government chairmen, councilors, elected officials from your region united in their desire for self determination or they want to be part of the large gravy train that is Nigeria? What are they doing to include the right to self – determination in the constitution? What is the time frame?

What is the economic plan post self-determination? If the region hankering for self – determination is land – locked how will it gain access to access to maritime resources when it is unable to have reasonable conversations with its near neighbors?

What will happen to property that is now in a foreign country? How will the break away region influence the tax laws of its new neighbors especially if they decide to raise money by taxing the properties left behind? Will one region be enough to go it alone? Will other regions come along?

How will any of the breakaway regions resolve all their internal fault lines? Regions where near tribes / kith and kin are not comfortable sharing states or local governments with another. Will the break away region be developing a new set of leaders or will their current representatives be leading the new country? The same ones who have almost driven Nigeria over the cliff.

My biggest worry is I don’t see any anybody articulating this vision of achieving self-determination. All I see especially in the East are a bunch of people happy for a ‘ne’er-do-well’ like Nnamdi Kanu be the face of what is meant to be a better future. I am proud to say I never thought Gani Adams represented anything I stood for and I wonder why any self respecting South Eastern Nigerian should think Nnamdi Kanu is their representative.

Young, defenseless, unemployed and hungry youths are deceived into protesting and confronting the might of the military with unnecessary loss of lives. Why are these youths not protesting against their local government chairmen, state and national assembly representatives and governors? Why are these representatives not raising this issue of self-determination at the state or national level?  If the agitators for self-determination are in the majority why do they keep voting for representatives who want to remain on the Nigerian gravy train?

If the end game is a violent break up, these agitators surely have an unimaginative way of going about their campaign.

My gut feeling is the agitation in the South East is funded by a political elite who intend to blackmail the rest of Nigeria into calling them into this great big dark room where national deals are made and the presidency handed over to the South East region on a platter of gold. I am sorry it won’t work quite that easily.

Where is your Obasanjo? The man the power brokers can trust not to break up Nigeria? Where is your Buhari, the man who can finally shed his stubbornness to partner with four wily politicians like Tinubu, Amaechi, Atiku & Saraki? Where is your Jonathan, a man who can make himself appear ‘harmless’ (generous use of word alert) enough to be made the number 2 and rise to Number 1 in fortuitous circumstances?

I am sorry there is no free lunch. Build your bridges and build some more. Build your tents in all major parties and present a compelling case where your fellow elites buy into the need for your region to present the next president perhaps in 2023 or run as number 2 to the current incumbent in 2019 with a view to ‘Jonathaning’ your way into power.

As the results of the 2015 general election shows, one or two regions will never win any election alone or jointly. You need buy – in from about 4 out of the 6 Nigerian regions.

Guess what? When the South East finally presents the candidate that wins the executive presidency of Nigeria, all the agitation for self – determination will disappear. Who no like better thing.

The big fear of the other regions I imagine is what happens when that tenure is about to end, will the then South Eastern incumbent bring down the whole house like Samson did?

Baba Grumpy works in Financial Services in the United Kingdom. He blogs mostly about football at http://babagrumpy.blogspot.co.uk. His Twitter handle is @BabaGrumpy