NiMet releases seasonal climate prediction, forecasts early onset of rain

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), has released the 2023 seasonal climate prediction with a forecast of early onset of rain across the country.

Mansur Matazu, director general of NiMet, made this known during the seasonal prediction presentation in Abuja on Tuesday.

He said the rainfal onset date would likely be from March 2 in southern states while other parts could delay till around July 7 .

Matazu said the annual rainfall amount was expected to range from 420 mm in the northern region to 3,253 mm in the coastal areas.

“The prediction shows that the earliest rains will likely occur on or around the 2nd of March, 2023 in the coastal zones of south-south states of Bayelsa, Akwa-Ibom, and Rivers,” he said.

“The onset date is expected to increase latitudinally with the ITD northward oscillation as the year progresses. The inland cities of the south are therefore likely to have onset in April while areas around the central states are likely to have onset in May.

“The extreme northern states are predicted to have onset between June and July, with the Northern fringes of Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno states predicted to likely have onset between 20th June and 7th July of 2023.”

He also said the length of the growing season will range from 84 to 283 days, adding that most parts of the country would experience the long-term average, while some parts such as Katsina, Jigawa, and Kano, would have shorter-term average length.

“An early end of the season is predicted over parts of the south, especially in Osun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and eastern parts of Ogun and Lagos and parts of Yobe, Adamawa, Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi.

“However, an extended rainfall season is predicted over parts of Gombe, Kaduna, Kwara, Enugu, Anambra, western Ogun, and Lagos. The end-of-season period is expected to range from the 26th of September till the 25th of December.

“Dry spell occurrences have characterised our seasons in recent years. In 2023, we should also prepare for its occurrence between June and early July as a dry spell lasting between 15 to 21 days is in the forecast, especially from the central parts of the country to the north.

“When compared to the last year, the little dry season (August Break) for 2023 is expected to be less intense. It is expected to last between 14 and 20 days starting from late July, especially over the south-west of the country.

“Other forecasts such as the temperature for the first five months of the year, malaria and meningitis forecast along with the socio-economic implications of these forecasts are contained in explicit details in the documents.”

Mustapha Ahmed, director general of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), said NiMet’s seasonal climate prediction helps NEMA conduct an analysis of disaster risk implications and produce disaster early warning messages for the protection of lives and assets.

He said the unprecedented flood disaster in 2022 was an eye-opener, noting that the agency intends to plan ahead and intensify inter-agency collaboration to forestall any negative impacts.

“At the end of this auspicious event, I look forward to bringing together experts from NIMET and other relevant agencies under one roof to analyse the disaster risk implication of the SCP and develop necessary advisories including risk mapping to guide all NEMA partners to mitigate disaster losses across the nation,” Ahmed said.

“I make bold to say that the negative impacts of the annually recurring flood disaster in Nigeria could have been more devastating without the early warning information developed out of the NIMET SCP and downscaled to the various end-user agencies and the general public.”