Nothing has changed, my brother

Our material on this page last week ,titled ‘Between NCC and NMC, good news in small packets’, has elicited a little dig from a very close friend who observed we almost created the impression that the telecoms industry is witnessing an el dorado.

No, we pointed out, we have only written in support of the relationship between the Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy and the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), on one hand, and Nokia on the other, to train some young Nigerians on Nokia’s 4G and 5G equipment as a good deal that should be encouraged with a prayer that more of such deals be cultivated.

This writer is aware of the dearth of qualified tech personnel that has dogged the telecommunications industry since 2001 and the story is not about to change. As technology grows with the speed of light literally, so is the challenge for skilled workforce to push the fortunes and frontiers of the industry. For instance, while 2G was a big story in early 2000, the world is today confronting the monstrous possibilities of 5G as the new technology that can virtually make all things possible – download big movies in seconds and make it possible for machines to whisper to each other in landmark conspiracy.

This writer couldn’t be talking of any el dorado in the industry because of the number of things popping up in the observatory. Sometimes, one is at the edge of frustration to still be talking about them at this point in time. Too trite and mundane after two decades of ceaseless industry operation.

For instance, in the corner of the nation’s capital where I live, not too far away from the city centre, I still move from room to room in search of strong signals for effective calls or actually just pick a point of advantage on the bed to make a good call happen. This is a recent development, meaning that quality of service has plummeted because one of the key stakeholders in the industry may have dropped the ball. It is not just about Abuja, it is about a failing in the industry that is pervasive, even hitting my neck of the country that has not been fortunate in enjoying a fair share of modern amenities.

No el dorado, dear friend, because each time I call the regulatory authority to get  updates on the Commission or the entire industry, I get a response which has become a refrain, unfortunately:  nothing has changed, my brother. This is not just from a source but sources. The sources are no purveyors of despair but good souls who know the heroics of the regulator in the days of yore and are genuinely worried that things are yet to get a stir, not even turning the corner yet.

In the life of the previous administration, the telecommunications industry had little to celebrate because of the unfortunate mix up of regulatory activities and policy making by both the NCC and the Ministry. It was a dangerous act strange to the Nigerian Communications Act 2003 that took the industry below our basest expectations.

The appointment of Drs. Bosun Tijani as Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, and Aminu Maida as Executive Vice Chairman (EVC) of the NCC, was expected to bring immediate relief to the Ministry, regulatory agency and the industry. And the people celebrated expectantly, even suggesting that their pedigree – education, history of work and achievements – and youthfulness would galvanise the sector into immediate action. I wouldn’t now want to agree, most shamefully, that we celebrated too early because I still expect a spark into action.

What then is the problem? This writer was told that the regulatory hijack which unfortunately happened under the last administration as a fallout of the protracted fight by the ministry to control the telecommunications industry, has not changed. Big decisions are still being cleared with the Honourable Minsiter, and this can affect the pace of decisions or even for decisions to genuinely address industry concerns. The NCC will need to address that problem if it ever wants to make progress again.

Nobody is talking of progress now because it cannot happen. The fortunes of the industry are not looking good at all. We gathered that things are so troubling that some operators have had to cut their Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) by as much as 30 percent. This means there won’t be any expansion or growth or even new employment. What is imperative at the moment is for the regulator to stabilise the industry.

“We are unable to source the Dollars to import equipment for maintenance and expansion,” an industry source lamented.

Aaha! This is one source of the failing quality of service which has lately troubled the sector and there can be no magic about it. Telecoms equipment are not manufactured in this part of the world and you have to pay Dollars for your purchases. Things are not that bad, I hear you say?

Let me table only two examples. One. MTN Nigeria reported a huge revenue yield of N2.46 trillion in the full year of 2023. It retained market dominance but suffered a loss of N137bn, unfortunately.

In the same period, Airtel Africa, announced a revenue of $4.98bn and also suffered a loss of $89m.

This is hardly coincidental. Both organisations attributed the loss to the volatility in the Forex market, the devaluation of the Naira and the near impossibility of sourcing Forex for equipment purchases.

The second example is also not inspiring at all. The fate of two operators, 9MOBILE and Ntel, is so fluid that nobody can determine their status or whether they have any value addition to the ecosystem. The first is losing subscribers in droves and is nearly at the level of inconsequence, while Ntel is fighting for reincarnation. Their inability to contribute their expected quota to the market is enough to impact the industry negatively.

What therefore is at issue? NCC should stand up for regulation and resolve all areas of conflict with the ministry and the minister. Ordinarily there shouldn’t actually be any problems because the Nigerian Communications Act 2003 is very clear on this. Please, go to Sections 23, 24 and 25 of the Act. People shouldn’t allow emotions, fear and job security becloud their ability to take responsible decisions while in office.

Time has come for the NCC to do a stress test for the industry it regulates in order to take some urgent actions that can help the operators. There is the need for the regulator to have a proper conversation with the operators in order to find what ails them, and then be in a position to take their requests to the Tinubu administration.

Apart from providing valuable services to subscribers and industries with their super infrastructure, I am of the opinion that the NCC is in a position to do a little calculation to determine how much tax the industry remits to the government and be convinced that its intervention is expedient for the good of all stakeholders.

There is too much at stake at the NCC, so the regulator should quickly engage in actions that can redeem the industry. And the government should also help the regulator to perform by instituting the board. At the moment only a few people who are not reflective of the plurality of the nation are taking all the decisions.

An operator told me, “without a board the different zones of the country are not represented at the NCC and that is not good.”