Now that Tinubu is back

The return of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from what looked like a long trip abroad must come to many as a relief. When the President travelled on August 29, his destination was announced in very clear terms. He was heading to China to attend the Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in his capacity as Nigeria’s leader and as Chairman of the Economic Community of West African states (ECOWAS).

The president himself has described his trip to China as successful. On September 2, he met with President Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of the People, and also, On September 4 with Premier Li Qiang, with the Chinese expressing a commitment to upgrade China-Nigeria relation to “a comprehensive strategic partnership”. At the end of bilateral meetings with the Chinese five Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) were signed on the Belt and Road Initiative, nuclear energy, infrastructure, media engineering and mining at national, sub-national levels and with the Nigerian private sector.

The president also visited two Chinese companies. At the opening session of FOCAC, President Tinubu made a strong case for China-Africa relations within the context of multilateralism and the promotion of global peace. I thought he added a little dose of saccharine when he said the objectives of FOCAC align with those of the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement. How exactly? But what is not in doubt is that China is determined to further extend its inroad into Africa and the developing world, under the New Silk Road project, committing to making available to the African countries additional financing support of 51.4 billion US dollars. President Tinubu met with Nigerians in China, members of NIDO, China chapter, using the opportunity to explain his administration’s reform efforts. He lauded the $280 billion economic trade partnership between China and Africa.

China has a lot to gain from Africa and vice versa. Africa is the last frontier where major nations of the world – France, Russia, Japan, Germany etc. are seeking partners and markets. In an increasingly multi-polar world, Africa provides China with a fertile ground to deepen its geo-political influence in the face of its fierce competition with the West, especially the US in virtually everything. Africa also has a lot to learn from the Chinese. I was expecting that the 53 African leaders who went to China for FOCAC would return home with memories of the technological wonders in China, the speed trains, the cutting-edge innovations of the Chinese, their work culture, organizational efficiency and capacity to pay attention to details, and therefore seek to imbibe the value of how a nation defines its own character.

African leaders are very quick at signing MOUs and showing excitement at the promises that China offers, but they hardly have the skills set to maximize advantages for their own people. This is the story of the debt trap in which many African countries including Zambia, Angola, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya have found themselves, resulting in accusations that what China practices is “debt trap diplomacy.” Nations look out for their own interests. No nation except perhaps Nigeria engages in Father Christmas diplomacy, and now years later, the same countries who benefitted from Nigeria’s generosity treat us badly. In addition to whatever we do in the foreign scene, there is yet a need for the re-thinking of Nigeria’s foreign policy process.

Shortly before President Tinubu’s departure to China, there was an incident involving Ogun State and a Chinese company, Zhongstan Fucheng – the enforcement of an arbitral judgement which saw three Nigerian aircraft being attached in France as well as properties in the UK and Canada. This was the latest in a series of agreements that Nigeria botched. It will be recalled that around 2016/2017 when President Muhammadu Buhari visited China, so many MOUs were also signed. But what happened? Many of the agreements with the Chinese were not implemented or they are in various states of confusion, including the HEDA-SINOPEC deal, and other projects involving Chinese companies such as China Composites Group Corporation (CCGC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Many of the issues could be resolved not through litigation or arbitration, but diplomacy.

Did President Tinubu address this challenge during his trip to China? Was there anything about the contract problem involving Ogun State, more so as that particular issue generated so much concern among Nigerians? The problem with Nigeria is our ad-hoc-ism, lack of consistency and continuity. International agreements require competence and consistency in execution. President Tinubu said at the heart of China-Africa relations is a foundation built on trust and mutual respect.

The Chinese will only respect us if we get our acts together. It is not enough to sign MoUs, there should be follow-through action on the understanding reached. President Tinubu has visited about 24 countries in the last 16 months. We need ambassadors in these countries. Many of our missions have no ambassadors manning them at the most senior level. It has been a whole year since Nigerian envoys were recalled. The President must send envoys abroad, competent persons not party members and their children looking for titles!

The China summit ended on September 6, and we were informed that the President would have a stop-over in London. He stayed longer in London than he did in China, only to return on Sunday, after more than an additional week. In one report we were informed that the president stopped over to discuss climate action with King Charles III. For one week? What kind of climate action discussion is that? This is not the first time that the president would travel to one destination, and instead of returning after his main assignment, Nigerians would be told that he would stop over either in France or London.

Twice, his managers even forgot to announce his whereabouts. Such absent-mindedness should be avoided, the President of Nigeria must not disappear into an artificial Bermuda triangle even for a day, only to show up later in a photo-op. The people of Nigeria have the right to ask for their President. They voted for him. He asked to be given the job. The littlest expectation is that he will show up on duty. If there is any reason for him to be absent, the people have the right to know. In the absence of transparency, Nigerians are quick to resort to speculations and rumour-mongering. And that was exactly what happened this time around: someone had taken a photograph of the president leaving a hospital in London, it was said, and immediately the rumour-mill jumped to the conclusion that the president had gone to see his doctors.

The president is a human being. There is nowhere in the Nigerian Constitution where it is said that to be eligible for president, the candidate must be super-human. The president’s handlers must pay attention to this detail and going forward, respect the people’s right to know. In other parts of the world, the state of the president’s health could have reverberations in markets, and generate political consequences.

But now that he is back, it is good to see him, getting back quickly into the groove of things. He was in Maiduguri, Borno state capital yesterday to identify with the people who were displaced by the massive flooding that overtook Maiduguri and Jere LGAs of the state. Knowing that the president had just returned from the UK where he reportedly discussed climate action with the King, and knowing that there have been torrential floods in parts of the world, certain government officials may inform the government that the flooding in Maiduguri is as a result of climate change. It is a lie.

The flooding could have been prevented. The dam managers, if they are experts, should have known that there would be a massive inflow from Nagdda River, at a particular time of the year, and plan for any eventuality accordingly. I refer President Tinubu to a damning report in the Daily Trust of Monday, September 16 at page 4 titled “Maiduguri flood: N400 m budgeted for Alau Dam in 4 years.” The pith of the story is that the Alau Dam has been defective for upwards nine years, and despite over N400 million budgeted for its rehabilitation between 2020 and 2024, the dam managers did nothing. Now, over 30,000 persons have been displaced, the death toll keeps mounting, there are fears of a possible disease outbreak.

The visit of the president and the vice president before him, and the prompt response of the agencies: NEMA and the Nigerian Army is commendable, but there is a lot more to be done. The President should order an immediate investigation into the Borno flood incident. What happened to the budgeted funds? Who collected what? What did the Chad Basin Development Authority do or did not do? Each time there is a crisis in this country, we are quick to lament and wring our hands, but the real challenge is the negligence and incompetence of officials. Every year, Nigeria’s low plains are flooded, from the banks of Rivers Niger and Benue to the Delta. Farms are destroyed. Lives are lost. We lament. We move on. The following year, the same tale is re-enacted – it is either the Rivers Niger and Benue overflow their banks, or water is released from Lagdo Dam in Cameron, or from Oyan Dam or the Ogun-Osun River Basin. We lament. We move on.

This year, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency in its 2024 Annual Flood Outlook had listed 31 states as high-risk areas, including Borno. Characteristically, nobody took precautions. We need to take a second look at our dams nationwide, and the management of the country’s river basins.

President Tinubu returned to Nigeria on the same day NNPC Limited lifted petrol, from the Dangote Refinery, a $20 billion investment, with a refining capacity of over 650, 000 barrels per day, the largest single-train refinery in the world. Dangote has been praised deservedly for his courage, patriotism and faith in the Nigerian project, and on Sunday, President Tinubu was also congratulated. It is on his watch that the Dangote Refinery began its operations. Government-owned refineries have been moribund for about 28 years, swallowing state resources and producing nothing of value other than corruption.

The Dangote Refinery marks a watershed moment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. The responsibility of government is to provide an enabling environment for those who believe in this country to thrive. This is why I consider the altercation between NNPC Limited and Dangote Refinery, somewhat of a distraction. Dangote Refinery is not an NGO, it is not a charity organization. It is in business to make profit. NNPC Limited is also in business to make profit, what it calls a willing buyer, willing seller market.

The regulator is the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Agency (NMDPRA). Whatever negotiations that may be necessary by October 1 as announced must be the focus of the government at this time, not the battle of press releases that we have seen in the last few days. As President Tinubu settles down after his long trip around the world, he must get on top of the issue of petrol supply. Nigerians would like to know for once if the government is truly subsidizing fuel and by what amount and if the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) needs to be revisited, so be it. Laws should serve the best interests of the people. Market forces must wear a Nigerian face.

The energy security that has been talked about, and savings in forex expenditure that local refining may bring should translate into greater productivity in the Nigerian economy. President Tinubu should move away from running a palliatives economy, and run an economy that puts people to work and creates massive opportunities. This should be the renewed hope message that he preaches. No country grows on the strength of a handout economy, where as we have seen, the people have been turned into beggars in their own country. The people of Nigeria have made it clear that they are hungry and angry, and what government does is to distribute rice, and millet, and cash that may not be properly accounted for.

I have only just heard that each Minister has been given 1, 200 bags of rice to distribute to the old and vulnerable in their constituencies. Your guess is as good as mine as to what will happen to those bags of rice, but there is also something ugly about having a Federal Cabinet of rice distributors.

In Maiduguri, President Tinubu reportedly said he had to alter his travel plans to return home to visit Maiduguri. He had planned to move from the UK to America. I don’t want to believe that he actually said that. He went to China a week after returning from France! There is brewing discontent in the land as a result of the rising cost of living. If, as someone calculated, it costs about N1, 500 to have a slightly decent meal these days, then anyone would need about N5, 000 per day. Multiply that by 30 days, that is about N150, 000 per month on feeding alone. People have other expenses, including rent, out of pocket healthcare spending, an army of extended family mouths, and other dependants, and yet the minimum wage of N70, 000 has not yet been implemented. The new national minimum wage has already been wiped out by inflation. It is no longer a status thing to own a car. It is expensive to maintain.

In the month of August, Nigerian youths trooped out in a protest they called #EndBadGovernnace, some of the persons arrested during that protest are now facing trial for treason. Should any citizen receive the death penalty for saying he or she is hungry, or for carrying placards? While the President was away, these same angry youths have been talking about another protest. They call it #FearlessinOctober.

There is an army of hungry people out there ready to defy the authorities. They think they deserve more than the handouts of rice, maize and millet from their government. Other Presidents before Tinubu enjoyed some honeymoon with the people of Nigeria before the critics descended on them. President Tinubu must reconsider his strategy.