Of census and national transformation

BY CHIECHEFULAM IKEBUIRO

In 2011, the national census results in India revealed a detraction in key gender metrics – the child sex ratio (CSR) and sex ratio at birth (SRB). The CSR, defined as the number of girls per 1,000 boys aged 0–6 years, showed a steady decline from 945 in 1999 to 927 in 2001 and further dropped to 918 in 2011. This decline was largely attributed to the Sex Ratio at Birth, which highlighted deep-rooted gender discrimination and women’s disempowerment.

The data revealed a strong socio-cultural and religious preference for boys, leading to pre-birth discrimination through gender-biased sex-selective abortions and post-birth discrimination through neglect of girls’ health, nutrition, and education.

In response, the Indian government launched the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao (Save the Girl Child, Educate the Girl Child) initiative. Since its implementation, the national SRB has increased from 918 to 930 girls per 1,000 boys, and the gross enrolment ratio of girls at the secondary school level has risen from 75% to 78%. Institutional deliveries have also surged from 61% to 97%, significantly improving maternal and child health outcomes

In essence, the BBBP scheme has made the safety, education, and health of girls a cornerstone of national development.

In 2010, Brazil’s census revealed stark regional disparities in income, education, and access to services. This data informed the development of the Bolsa Família, a social welfare program designed to address inequality and poverty.

Bolsa Família has been instrumental in reducing poverty rates and enhancing the well-being of beneficiary households by increasing consumption, improving access to basic services, and promoting social inclusion. The conditional cash transfer program, in particular, has helped break the cycle of intergenerational poverty, lifting over 35 million people out of extreme poverty.

Between 2003 and 2014, Brazil’s extreme poverty rate fell from 12% to 4%, while the Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, dropped from 0.58 to 0.51. School attendance rates among beneficiary children rose to over 95%, and dropout rates among children aged 6 to 17 decreased by 71%.

In 2020, China’s census highlighted an ageing population and a declining birth rate. In response, the government revised its one-child policy, allowing couples to have more children, supported by increased maternity leave benefits, housing subsidies, tax breaks for larger families, expanded childcare services, and reduced educational costs.

These policy shifts were further supported by urban infrastructure development aimed at creating age-friendly environments, enhanced healthcare facilities, and housing options suitable for growing families in rapidly expanding cities.

These examples illustrate the transformative potential of census data in addressing social, economic, and demographic challenges. A census is far more than a mere headcount as we are wont to believe. It is an invaluable tool for understanding the needs of a population, guiding policymakers, and informing development strategies.

In the same vein, the absence of timely and accurate census data can hinder effective planning and development. For instance, Nigeria’s last census was conducted in 2006, nearly two decades ago. This lack of up-to-date data undermines the ability to plan for education, employment, healthcare, and infrastructure needs. The United Nations recommends conducting a census every 10 years to capture significant demographic changes and inform policymaking.

The failure to conduct a census has left us all guessing at the true size of the population. This lack of data is detrimental to our national development, and this gap must be filled.

That the president has given the directive to conduct a census this year is a welcome move, as it is long overdue. You see, a comprehensive census is critical to national development. It informs policymakers of the needs of different regions. For instance, data on age distribution can help plan for education and employment programs tailored toward the youth population.

An accurate census helps pinpoint demographic pressure points, such as youth bulges, which, if unemployed (as is the case here), can fuel crime and extremism. Our intelligence agencies can now use the data to predict where potential radicalisation or security threats might emerge and deploy resources accordingly.

It can help forecast labour force trends, identify skill gaps, and design policies aligned with future needs. It will help identify consumer markets and areas requiring investment. It will guide industrialisation efforts.

It’s high time we leveraged census data to build a more inclusive, secure, and prosperous country. While some may harbour mistrust about the census, fearing that it could be misused for personal gain, the President and the National Population Commission must take steps to ensure transparency and accountability throughout the process.

The time to prioritise credible census is now. Accurate data is the bedrock upon which our national progress can be built ensuring the needs of all citizens are met and the future of generations is equipped to thrive

Chiechefulam Ikebuiro can be contacted via [email protected]