WTI Crude edged higher on Tuesday with prices clipping above $43 as the ongoing talks by some OPEC members over a potential freeze on output generated speculative boosts in oil prices. Regardless of these short term gains, Oil remains fundamentally bearish and could be poised for steeper decline as the persistent oversupply fears haunt investor attraction.
With concerns still elevated over a potential decline in demand amid slowing global growth most upside gains observed in oil could be capped. The terrible combination of oversupply woes and fears that demand may be waning could provide a foundation for bears to send WTI crude to unseen levels. From a technical standpoint, bears need to break below $42 for a steeper decline towards $40.
The Sterling/Dollar descended to fresh 1 month lows at 1.2963 following the soft UK manufacturing data for June which reinforced concerns over the health of the UK economy. Domestic data from the UK has repeatedly disappointed with the ongoing Brexit fueled uncertainty haunting investor attraction towards the Sterling. The ongoing threat that the majority of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects UK interest rates to cut to near zero by the end of 2016 has encouraged investors to continue selling the British Pound in the aftermath of last week’s BoE interest rate decision. Sentiment remains bearish towards the pound with the GBPUSD vulnerable to further losses as the divergence in monetary policy between the BoE and Fed entices sellers to install another round of selling.
Global stocks ventured higher during trading on Tuesday as the renewed risk appetite from US rate hike expectations and resurgence in oil prices bolstered investor risk sentiment. Asian markets concluded in gains with the bullish contagion propelling European equities higher. Wall Street may follow this positive pattern with American stocks marching into the green territory as the feel good effect encourages investors to trade riskier assets. Although the stock market rally is impressive, the attributes for a bear trend such as concerns over the global economy and uncertainty still linger in the background. Investors should remain diligent as it could take an unexpected catalyst to rapidly halt the overextended market rally.
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Gold remains heavily pressured and could be destined to trade lower if the growing expectations over the Federal Reserve raising US rates in 2016 encourage investors to install another heavy round of selling. Although risk aversion from the ongoing concerns over the global economy and Brexit uncertainties may attract investors to Gold, the combination of Dollar strength and optimism towards the Fed taking action could attract sellers to attack further. From a technical standpoint, Friday’s bearish candle is quite overwhelming and a breakdown below $1315 may trigger a steeper decline towards $1305 and potentially lower.
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