Oliseh and football week of gambling and probability

Welcome to football silly season, aka transfer season, where wheeling and dealing on players and coaches looks like GMAT probability questions.

Try these three on for size:

Suppose a referee flips a fair coin six times. What is the probability that, in six flips, he gets at least one head?

(A) 5/8

(B) 13/16

(C) 15/16

(D) 31/32

(E) 63/64

In a certain game, you pick a card from a standard deck of 52 cards.  If the card is a heart, you win.  If the card is not a heart, the person replaces the card to the deck, reshuffles and draws again.  The person keeps repeating that process until he picks a heart, and the point is to measure: how many draws did it take before the person picked a heart and won? What is the probability that one will have at least three draws before one picks a heart?

(A) 1/2

(B) 9/16

(C) 11/16

(D) 13/16

(E) 15/16

Five football personalities, Sterling, Pinnick, Keshi, Schweinsteiger, and Oliseh, sit randomly in five chairs in a row. What is the probability that Keshi and Oliseh sit next to each other?

(A) 2/5

(B) 1/15

(C) 1/5

(D) 1/30

(E) 7/20

Before you start racking your brain for the answers or imagining what the outcome of Stephen Keshi and Sunday Oliseh sitting next to each other would look like, we examine three transfers this week that brought the subject of probability and gambling to the fore.

SUNDAY OLISEH

Oliseh, a former Super Eagles captain, signed a three-year contract with the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF), at a press conference at the Abuja National Stadium.

During the ceremony which took place on Wednesday, July 15, Amaju Pinnick, NFF president, handed Oliseh jersey number 15, the same jersey number he wore during his playing days with the Super Eagles.

This is not about the number 15 even though coincidence, gambling, and football transfers sometimes share a common denominator – probability!

WHY IT IS A GAMBLE

Oliseh scores zero, or an abysmal one, in coaching experience and pedigree.

Also, the 40-year-old was a “jobless” coach prior to when he was engaged by the NFF. You know what they say about an idle iron!

Though the former Super Eagles captain has come out to say he’s “here to work and not to fight anybody” but can a temperamental “leopard” change its spot?

WHY IT IS NOT

To his credit, Oliseh played the game at the highest level and appears to understand it, erm, well as a pundit.

He might score “zero or an abysmal one” in some people’s reckoning (not me!!!!), but his stints as sports director at both Eupen and Vervietois – both lower league clubs in the Belgium – has justifiably prepared him for the task ahead.

Moreover, he has UEFA professional coaching licence, UEFA grade A (advance) coaching diploma, UEFA B (Basic) coaching diploma and business management diploma in Belgium.

Above all, he was a member of FIFA study group.

SO, HOW WILL IT PAN OUT?

Well, one of the rules in gambling is Discipline and Pinnick and Oliseh seem to have it in droves!

Discipline, knowledge, and the determination to be successful promise an interesting time ahead for Nigerians.

Moreover, if you enter into gambling transactions – like this one – without a calm head over a calm body then you are sure to reduce your chances of winning consistently.

Up Super Eagles!

RAHEEM STERLING

Raheem Sterling joined Manchester City from Liverpool for a deal worth up to £49m ending the summer’s biggest transfer rumour.

City finally got their man, but how will the most expensive English footballer in history, a mere 20-year-old mind you, fit into a forward line already boasting Sergio Aguero, Wilfried Bony, Edin Dzeko, Samir Nasri, Jesus Navas and David Silva.

WHY IT IS A GAMBLE

The weight of the transfer – City paid £44m and that could rise to £49m based on his success at the club – could affect the player.

That’s even a small matter because he will be competing with Nasri, Navas and Silva to play on the wings or just behind one or two strikers.

And we are well aware that English players have not had good playing time at City – with the exception of goalkeeper Joe Hart – in recent seasons. James Milner, Micah Richards, Jack Rodwell and Scott Sinclair have all moved on in search of regular first-team football.

Sterling was the best England player at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, but he struggled towards the end of last season, scoring just once in his last 15 Liverpool appearances after rejecting a new £100,000-a-week deal and told his manager Brendan Rodgers he wanted to leave.

The manner he left the club has earned him a reputation that could be hard to rid himself of in the future. He can ask Nicolas Anelka, Emmanuel Adebayor, and Mario Balotelli.

Soon, City and their fans will look at the situation and think “this could happen to us in a few years”.

WHY IT IS NOT

Sterling has age on his side as his competitors Silva and Navas are both 29 while Nasri is 28.

With the array of world-class players in City, Sterling will be excited to show what he can do. This step-up should bring out the best in him.

At just 20, what he can become in say, five years’ time, is mind blowing. Remember he scored 23 goals in 129 games for Liverpool mostly as a winger.

CAN YOU HAZARD A POSSIBLE OUTCOME AFTER 12 MONTHS AND NOT FIVE YEARS?

“Never chase losses” is a rule in gambling which the hierarchy in Manchester City are well aware of – but consistently flouts.

With a bottomless pit piled up with cash, City have turned this gambling rule on its head. So, whether it is Sterling or Robinho, when transfer businesses are unfolding against them there is always the temptation to pour more money into the market to try and force a profit.

Likewise, adopting the strategy after a loss that they must recoup their losses by betting more on the next event is also a recipe for disaster.

These tactics only increase the chances that they will lose more. But that’s music to the ears of the big boss at the Etihad. Because…

They observe another rule of gambling…

Coping with Winning Days & Losing Days!

City are so adept in coping psychologically with losses which has played a huge part in how successful (?) they are in the transfer market. For every Emmanuel Adebayor they know there’s a Yaya Toure.

Never mind the UEFA Financial Fair Play which tries to limit their frenzied spending spree in the summer, they have a bottomless pit piled up with Pound Sterling (no pun intended) which brings out the creativity in them. Remember Frank Lampard!

BASTIAN SCHWEINSTEIGER

Bastian Schweinsteiger joined Manchester United after a glittering trophy-filled career at Bayern Munich.

“Manchester United is a big club with a lot of tradition and it’s exactly what I wanted,” he said after signing a 3-year deal worth £14.4m.

“We have the same philosophy.

“I’m here to win titles and that’s what United is used to, too. I’m looking forward to playing in the jersey.”

So what can United fans expect?

WHY IT IS A GAMBLE

There’s a question mark over his fitness. He has not had a reasonable injury-free run since the 2010-11 season.

Will he be able to play week in, week out in the Barclays Premier League, the FA Cup, the Capital One Cup, and the father of them all, the UEFA Champions League?

The German captain only made 20 Bundesliga appearances last season – the lowest since his debut season of 2002-03 – when he played 14 games. And even when he was fit, he failed to dislodge Xabi Alonso, who is three years older, from the defensive midfield holding role.

He has not retired from international football like Philipp Lahm and Per Mertesacker, so that means more games for the 30-year-old. One can only wait and see how he can juggle playing for Germany and coping with the intensity, pace and the sheer number of games in English football.

You need the list of competitions again? The Barclays Premier League, the FA Cup, the Capital One Cup, and the father of them all, the UEFA Champions League!

Then there’s the winter break which Schweinsteiger is used to. He has not played domestic football outside Germany before and it remains to be seen whether he can adapt.

And at 30, Schweinsteiger has seen better days on the pitch and more off it – in the theatre room!

WHY IT IS NOT

If he stays fit, he can make an impact in United’s midfield.

United are investing in a player who has won eight Bundesliga titles, seven German Cups and one Champions League. He has also appeared in three World Cups winning 111 caps and scoring 23 goals for Germany.

Schweinsteiger is good in the air and brings with him loads and loads of experience.

SO, A BAD BUSINESS FOR THE RED DEVILS?

Well, the jury is still out on this.

United share the same city but not the same bulging purse with their so-called Noisy Neighbour so they still need to act like a business with a SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-bound) goal!

This move for a 30-year old obeys a gambling rule of “Staking Strategy”.

In football transfer and gambling, it is certain that you will never win all of your transactions and some losses are inevitable – remember Eric Djemba Djemba and Diego Forlan.

So, managing your transfer kitty means that these losses get swallowed up in the big picture and are not noticed at the end of the season when trophies are handed out.

But United last won a trophy in 2013!

By the way, the answers to the GMAT questions are E, B, and A. Ask us about Oliseh, Sterling, and Schweinsteiger after this meal of Eba and Egusi soup or wait after 12 months!