The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its demand growth forecast, citing the impact of trade tariffs announced by the United States.
On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed sweeping global tariffs (including 14 percent on Nigeria) on all imports into the US.
However, on April 9, he paused tariffs for dozens of countries but raised China’s tariff rates from 104 percent to 125 percent.
In its latest monthly oil report on Monday, OPEC said the data received in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 also influenced the decision.
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The oil alliance said demand for crude oil is expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 2026 — down about 150,000 bpd from its previous estimates.
“The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y,” OPEC said.
“This minor adjustment is mainly due to received data for 1Q25 and the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs.
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“In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), oil demand is expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by almost 1.25 mb/d in 2025.”
OPEC said the forecast for “global oil demand growth in 2026 is revised down slightly to about 1.3 mb/d”.
“The OECD is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026,” the oil alliance said.
Moreso, OPEC also lowered the global economy growth forecast to 3.0 percent for 2025.
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“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, the near-term trajectory is now subject to higher uncertainty given the recent tariff-related dynamics,” OPEC said.
Consequently, the international organisation said the global economic growth forecasts are “revised down slightly to 3.0% for 2025, and to 3.1% for 2026”.
